The Prospect Post: Panning For Prospect Gold Out West

Nevertheless, Cal's Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb and Utah's Jakob Poeltl all figure to be lottery picks in the upcoming draft, so the two programs are experiencing something of a renaissance in terms of producing NBA talent. DraftExpress has the three players all ranked in the 6-10 range in terms of prospects for this year's draft, so it is definitely debatable which player will be the first off the board, and which of the three will be the best pro.

Here's a look at how they stack up physically:

Jaylen Brown (SG/SF)
Brown is a relentless, athletic attacker on offense, who is always looking to dunk on anyone in his path to the hoop. He's essentially the wing version of Blake Griffin. Unfortunately, on the wing he will be asked to do some things that Griffin does not have to concern himself with, namely shooting threes and guarding elite wings. Brown looks like a better bet to be able to guard players like Klay Thompson and Jimmy Butler than shoot threes at an acceptable clip. Here are his numbers through 17 games as a 19-year-old freshman:

It isn't fair that he has to get judged for his three-point shooting, because he was quite clearly put on this planet to throw down on fools, not shoot threes, but that's the harsh reality of today's NBA. To be a starting two or three, it is borderline mandatory that a player is a competent three-point shooter.

A common Internet comparison for Brown is Jason Richardson, but Richardson was a career 37-percent three-point shooter, and it seems very far-fetched to imagine Brown ever getting that reliable from long range. Grant Hill and Dominique Wilkins come to mind as super-athletic wings who did not shoot at a high clip from behind the arc, but those two were once-in-a-generation slashers. Maybe Brown can get 85 percent of the way to Wilkins' game, and that's the gamble NBA teams will be taking if they pop Brown with a top-six pick, which seems necessary at this point.

Still, it would be hard to fault a franchise for using a top-six pick on a lottery ticket like Brown, with the only three sure things — Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and Kris Dunn — off the board. Points and rebounds will be his top two fantasy contributions, and if he can be coached to not attempt many threes, he could also be an asset in field-goal percentage.

Ivan Rabb (PF)
Spoiler alert: Rabb is my favorite of these three prospects. He has the highest upside and might also have the highest floor. Here are his numbers through 17 games as an 18-year-old freshman:

He has not taken a three-pointer this year, but he has a smooth, effective stroke from 15 feet and in, which puts him ahead of the curve for most 18-year-olds who have his size and post game. Rabb is not as explosive of a finisher as one might like in a power forward, as he's usually finishing with layups, not dunks, but he makes his bunnies, so it's not a major knock. He can go up and get lobs and finish with ease, but he doesn't live above the rim. That said, he is a finisher, pure and simple — as one can tell from his field-goal percentage.

It is pretty rare for prospects of his ilk to be seeing this many minutes and to be this productive so early in their college careers. Typically when it happens, that screams lottery pick, and in Rabb's case, he could feasibly play his way into the top-five by the end of the year. While he won't be Serge Ibaka on defense, he is a solid defender/rim-protector for his position, and he is a beast on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, which leads to a bevy of putbacks.

Inevitably, the team that drafts Rabb will take him with the notion that he will be a competent three-point shooter in two or three years, not unlike Ibaka, or even Chris Bosh, whom Rabb has been glowingly compared to. That comparison represents his absolute ceiling, but it is also not crazy. Even if he does not develop into a stretch four, Rabb has a good chance to be a better NBA big than any of the current options on the Celtics, Hornets, Nuggets, Pacers, Sixers, Suns, Blazers, Raptors or Wizards, thanks to the fact that he is a two-way player without any obvious weaknesses, so he should be seeing 32-35 minutes per game by his second year in the league.

Jakob Poeltl (C)
This may not come as a big surprise, but I'm not high on Poeltl. Those who are high on him probably envision something like Nikola Vucevic or Brook Lopez at the next level. That is not an impossible outcome, but the odds are against Poeltl. Here are his numbers through 16 games as a 20-year-old sophomore:

Offensively, he is solid with his back to the basket, but he thrives in the pick-n-roll. However, he may be less effective in that respect at the next level if he cannot reliably hit 15-18 footers on pick-n-pops, as NBA teams should be able to help-defend his roll in certain situations, and that will lead to charges and ugly attempts to finish over defenders from five or six-feet out. He is not athletic enough to dunk over defenders on the pick-n-roll, a la Amar'e Stoudemire or Blake Griffin.

There are lazy comparisons to Bogut out there, given the Utah connection, but that seems like a slap in the face to the big Aussie, as Bogut was an elite rim-protector in his prime, and his body was so thick and sturdy that he could dominate in the post in one-on-one matchups. Tiago Splitter (shoutout to Nick Whalen for coming up with this one) seems like the best comp for Poeltl, as a serviceable center who could start on some teams, but probably fits better as a backup. His fantasy ceiling will be limited, as he will be a per-minute asset in all the typical center categories, but realistically he will not be a guy who averages 30-plus minutes per game, and he'll be a slight drain on free-throw percentage. Right now he is a likely lottery pick, and a 50/50 bet to go in the top-10.

Cal and Utah face off for a second time on Wednesday, Jan. 27 — a game that will be broadcast on ESPN U — so NBA draft junkies would be wise to tune in and watch what could be a last meeting of these three prospects. It is unlikely that any of the trio will be franchise players at the next level, but they will be in rotations next year, and players like Devin Booker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Larry Nance Jr. have already made a fantasy impact this season, despite going outside the top-10 in last year's draft.