This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns: The Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league in points allowed per possession. They are dominating that metric, allowing 15 percent fewer points per possession than the NBA average (technically they rank a pretty close second to the Warriors in this category, but both the Warriors and the Grizzlies are a full tier ahead of any other team). The Grizzlies are fifth in the league in opponent turnovers and fourth in opponent field goal percentage. Not only are the Grizzlies performing well in defensive statistics, but that performance is in line with the expectations for the franchise and for the players on their roster. Mike Conley, Courtney Lee, and Tony Allen should be able to cause problems for the Suns' talented backcourt.
Offenses to Use
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics: The Celtics are currently running at the second fastest pace in the league. While there is evidence that the impact of pace on fantasy performance may be generally overstated, those extra possessions are given added significance when paired with these next statistics: the Celtics are in the bottom third of the league for points allowed per possession, while the Raptors are in the top quarter of the league for points scored per possession. Taken altogether, this game should feature a lot of possessions. Now, it's worth noting that the Celtics' three opponents so far this season are all possible playoff teams, while the Raptors' four foes this season have included the pretending-they're-not-tanking Magic and the injury-depleted Thunder.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: San Antonio Spurs
Second game of a back-to-back: Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards, New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland Cavaliers
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Elfrid Payton, ORL (at PHI) PG, ($4,000): Points per $1,000 spent, or p/K, is a derivative metric – the significance of that for non-math geeks is that p/K has minimal predictive value, and is best used to measure something after the fact. But maximizing p/K is our goal in daily fantasy games, so it's worth pointing out that, though Payton's 5.64 average p/K is near the top of the league so far this season, Wednesday Payton also benefits from what I call the "sweet spot off night" effect – DraftKings' salary algorithm places increased significance on the second- and third-most recent games played; if a player significantly overperformed or underperformed in one game during that small window, it will have a major impact on that player's price. Well, three games ago, Payton posted a measly 13.25 fantasy points, and his salary is predictably decreased as a result. In his other three games, he has scored 21.75, 32.75, and 34 fantasy points, making the low game look like an outlier.
Steph Curry, GS (vs LAC) PG, ($10,200): I typically shy away from players this costly, but I've pointed out enough useful cheap options that you will have to spend your money somewhere. Curry has been one of the most productive players so far in this young season, averaging 52 fantasy points per night. In his two outings against below-average defensive backcourts, Curry landed daily games players 56.5 and 60.25 fantasy points. Against a tougher defense, the Trail Blazers, Curry still managed a useful 39.25. Chris Paul and Jamal Crawford are not exactly defensive intimidators, so Curry should have a good chance to go off in this battle of Western Conference contenders.
Other suggestions: John Wall, WAS (vs IND), PG, ($9,600); Shabazz Napier, MIA (at CHA), PG, ($3,000)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI (at MIL) SG, ($4,900): DraftKings is pricing Butler like it's still 2013. In his two games, he has scored more than 20 points and more than 35 fantasy points both times, but he is being priced for only 25 fantasy points. Butler is stepping up while Derrick Rose sits out and Mike Dunleavy searches for his missing shot.
Other suggestions: Kyle Korver, ATL (at SA), SG, ($5,000); Iman Shumpert, NYK (at DET), SG, ($4,000); Garrett Temple, WAS (vs IND), SG, ($3,800)
Small Forward
Shawne Williams, MIA (vs CHA) PG, ($3,000): While Payton, as explained above, is toward the top of the league in nightly p/K, Williams is actually number two there, with a shocking 7.62 p/K through four games. Better still, this high-value production comes with an easy explanation: Williams has been starting for the injured Josh McRoberts (toe). Williams is not the long-term starter at power forward, he is just a placeholder until McRoberts can take over. But McRoberts is not logging DNPs, he is nominally healthy, and has participated in the last three games – it's just that he has come off the bench and played fewer than 12 minutes in each contest. With McRoberts taking part in the games, one might reasonably assume that his taking the starting job, and sending Williams to a greatly diminished bench role, is imminent – and DraftKings has been pricing Williams accordingly. But McRoberts isn't seeing more minutes each night (in fact, his court time has gone down in each successive game), and we have no reason to suspect that Wednesday is the day he will suddenly take over. It looks like it will take some time for McRoberts to return to game readiness, and in the mean time, Williams is a minimum value player who will almost certainly see a starter's quantity of minutes.
Other suggestions: Draymond Green, GS (vs LAC), SF, (5,000); Evan Turner, BOS (vs TOR), SF, ($3,300)
Power Forward
Tyler Hansbrough, TOR (at BOS) PG, ($3,000): For a minimum salary, you could do a lot worse than Hansbrough. Hansbrough is averaging more minutes than starting center Jonas Valanciunas (nose), though that is somewhat misleading since Valanciunas left Tuesday's game with an injury after only 13 minutes. But even when Valanciunas was healthy, Hansbrough still played 19 minutes or more in every game, and it is still possible that Valanciunas will be limited or miss Wednesday's game – no announcement has yet been made. If you are really sold on some bigger names Wednesday, Hansbrough should be able to tread water while the rest of your roster does the more important work. If Valanciunas ends up inactive for Wednesday's game, then Hansbrough becomes actively desirable.
Other suggestions: Pau Gasol, CHI (at MIL), PF, ($7,500); Nikola Mirotic, CHI (at MIL), PF, ($3,000)
Center
Marc Gasol, MEM (at PHO) PG, ($8,000): When he faces off against other talented giants, like Roy Hibbert or Al Jefferson, Gasol can be slowed – that was the case last Friday and Saturday, when he was limited to 37.5 and 33 fantasy points, respectively. But when his opponents are defensive lightweights (like the Timberwolves), or players much smaller than him or much less talented than him (like the Pelicans' pairing of Anthony Davis and Omer Asik), he can churn out nights of 54.25 or 39.75 fantasy points. Of the four opponents he has faced this season, the Suns are most similar to Timberwolves, and that is the box score that has me most excited for Gasol's Wednesday night prospects.
Other suggestions: Nikola Vucevic, ORL (vs PHI), C, ($8,800); Roy Hibbert, IND (at WAS), C, ($7,000)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Adreian Payne (foot)
Vitor Faverani (knee)
Jeff Taylor (non-injury)
Cartier Martin (foot)
Jodie Meeks (back)
Paul George (leg)
George Hill (knee)
CJ Watson (foot)
David West (ankle)
Nick Calathes (suspension)
Damien Inglis (foot)
Johnny O'Bryant (knee)
Jose Calderon (calf)
Victor Oladipo (face)
Michael Carter-Williams (shoulder)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Jerami Grant (ankle)
Jason Richardson (foot)
TJ Warren (thumb)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Amir Johnson (ankle)
Bradley Beal (wrist)
Martell Webster (back)
Game-Time Decision
Kyle Korver (illness) is still day-to-day after missing Tuesday's game.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (chest) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Joakim Noah (illness) is still day-to-day after missing Tuesday's game.
Derrick Rose (ankle) was "not quite there" for Tuesday's game, and a decision has not yet been made for Wednesday.
Noah Vonleh (hernia) has not yet appeared in a game, but the Hornets have left it uncertain whether that is because of his injury.
Luigi Datome (hamstring) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game.
Chris Anderson (ribs) is considered questionable for Wednesday's game after sitting out Tuesday.
David Lee (hamstring) is considered probable for Wednesday's game.
Glen Davis (groin) is likely to make his season debut Wednesday.
Courtney Lee (concussion) is expected to play Wednesday.
Luol Deng (arm) is questionable for Wednesday's game.
Danny Granger (hamstring) is considered questionable for Wednesday's game after sitting out Tuesday.
Udonis Haslem (quadriceps) is considered questionable for Wednesday's game after sitting out Tuesday.
Thaddeus Young (neck) is expected to play Wednesday.
Ronny Turiaf (hip) is a game-time decision Wednesday. He has not yet played this season.
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring) is still a game-time decision Wednesday, but he has not yet played this season, and there were indications over the weekend that he would sit out the entire week.
Quincy Acy (wrist) is a game-time decision Wednesday after sitting out Tuesday's game.
Kyle O'Quinn (ankle) is considered questionable for Wednesday's game.
Tiago Splitter (calf) is considered probable for Wednesday's game.
Jonas Valanciunas (hand) is questionable for Wednesday's game.
