The Prospect Post: Mock Lottery 2.0

Welcome to the second NBA mock lottery of the year. I will be using teams' current lottery odds to determine the draft order while also noting the traded picks; apologies to Nets, Knicks and Wizards fans. Also, this is not a reflection of my personal big board, it is just a prediction of how things would unfold if the draft was today.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (9-63)
Brandon Ingram, Duke, SF, 18 years old, 6-9, 196 pounds (Previously: No. 2)

It's safe to say that in the month since the first mock lottery, Ben Simmons' stock has, at best, remained steady, and Ingram's stock has increased, so it should not come as a surprise to see the lanky Blue Devil in the top spot. He is a specifically appealing fit for the 76ers if they come to the conclusion that Ingram has as much star potential as Simmons, as Ingram would give them the long-range shooting they so desperately crave, while slotting in at the three and not displacing their frontcourt pieces.

2. Los Angeles Lakers (15-56)
Ben Simmons, LSU, PF, 19 years old, 6-10, 239 pounds (Previously: No. 1)

It's a two-horse race for the No. 1 overall pick, and whoever is picking second will take the player who gets passed on at the top of the draft. Ingram would be the better fit in Los Angeles, as the Lakers already have a power forward who can't shoot in Julius Randle, but the Lakers could be a deadly transition team with Simmons or D'Angelo Russell leading the break. From a fantasy perspective, Simmons is extremely safe, as his competitiveness/intangible concerns may affect his real life value, but should not stop him from putting up crazy numbers, perhaps on a bad team.

3. Boston Celtics via Brooklyn Nets (19-51)
Jaylen Brown, Cal, SF, 19 years old, 6-7, 222 pounds (Previously: No. 3)

I profiled Brown three weeks ago, on the same day he had his worst game of the season against Arizona. It's hard to find a major weakness in his game, and his combination of athleticism, competitiveness and a high motor gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling. He's not quite in the same class as Ingram or Simmons, but I also don't believe any other college player is in the mix with Brown for the No. 3 spot.

4. Phoenix Suns (20-51)
Dragan Bender, International (Maccabi Tel Aviv), PF, 18 years old, 7-1, 216 pounds (Previously: No. 4)

Bender needs to bulk up a little, but his size and skill level is very impressive for an 18-year-old. If he impresses in individual workouts, he could jump Brown and go third, but he should be safely in the top-5, providing he doesn't bomb in workouts. Unlike Kristaps Porzingis, Bender may require a year of seasoning before he is ready to be a fantasy force.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (23-48)
Jamal Murray, Kentucky, SG, 19 years old, 6-5, 201 pounds (Previously: No. 7)

Murray has emerged as the safest guard in the draft, and he also has plenty of upside. If everything breaks right, he could be the good version of Eric Gordon, scoring at will despite being slightly undersized for the position. He may not be quite as good of an athlete as Gordon was, but he is a bit more fast-twitch and active on the offensive end. In this scenario, the T-Wolves would have to decide what to do with Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine, as it seems like the ideal backcourt would be LaVine and Murray, but perhaps LaVine or Murray could occupy a sixth man role instead. Either way, Murray's shooting would be a welcome complement to Rubio and Andrew Wiggins.

6. New Orleans Pelicans (26-44)
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, SG, 22 years old, 6-4, 214 pounds (Previously: No. 9)

This is just the perfect fit. The Pelicans want to win now and don't want to admit that they've done an atrocious job of building around Anthony Davis. Hield is the best win-now option left on the board, and he would also give coach Alvin Gentry a poor man's version of Stephen Curry, whom he coached in Golden State, to incorporate into his wannabe Warriors-esque offense. People will knock Hield for his age until he can prove that he has what it takes in the NBA, and while college seniors who have standout final years in college make up a good portion of NBA busts, that's not a hard and fast rule. He can flat out shoot, and that will always have a place in the league.

7. Sacramento Kings (27-44)
Kris Dunn, Providence, PG, 22 years old, 6-4, 205 pounds (Previously: No. 6)

It's easy to fall in love with Dunn's game and size, but like Hield, he's 22 years old, and unlike Hield, his ability to shoot from long range at the next level is less of a certainty. He seems like a solid bet to be fit into the 11-20 range in terms of the top point guards in the NBA, with a chance to crack the top-10 if he can hit threes at a 35-40 percent clip and increase his free-throw percentage above 75 percent. At worst, he'll be a slightly better version of Marcus Smart. The Kings could use all the help they can get, and this would make it easier for them to let Rajon Rondo go in free agency.

8. Denver Nuggets via New York Knicks (29-43)
Henry Ellenson, Marquette, PF, 19 years old, 6-10, 231 pounds (Previously: No. 5)

The Nuggets should be operating under the best-player-available practice in this draft, as they have plenty of solid NBA players, but nobody who is beyond getting displaced from the starting lineup, other than perhaps Danilo Gallinari, who can't be counted on to play 60-plus games a year. Denver may decide Ellenson fits the bill here, as he would give them much needed three-point shooting from the frontcourt, and allow them to keep Kenneth Faried in a 20-25 minute role as an energy guy off the bench.

9. Orlando Magic (29-42)
Marquese Chriss, Washington, PF, 18 years old, 6-9, 225 pounds (Previously: Not listed)

At what point will the Magic stop taking uber-athletic college players with a lot of projection remaining in the lottery? Well, not this year if they end up with Chriss, who is an athletic force in the halfcourt and transition. He can already stretch the floor and protect the rim, and for teams looking for a star outside the top-four, Chriss may be the best bet. Look for him to shoot up big boards during the draft combine and individual workouts.

10. Milwaukee Bucks (30-42)
Dejounte Murray, Washington, PG, 19 years old, 6-5, 170 pounds (Previously: Not listed)

So two of the top-10 picks in the draft are Washington Huskies? In this scenario, yes. It's not a stretch to say Chriss is a lottery pick, but his teammate, Murray, gets pegged more as a late first rounder. That seems to misread his upside in a draft class that lacks star potential outside the top-four. Chriss is more NBA-ready and younger, but Murray has the same look as Russell Westbrook did at UCLA, where he's still quite raw, but it's easy to see that he has "it" and could develop into something very special at the point guard spot despite not making national headlines in college. The Bucks could desperately use more long-term help in the backcourt and Murray would offer another scary two-way option next to the Greek Freak.

11. Toronto Raptors via Denver Nuggets (30-42)
Ivan Rabb, Cal, PF, 19 years old, 6-10, 215 pounds (Previously: No. 8)

I just love the fit of Rabb with the Raptors. I had him going eighth in the first mock to the Raptors, and he just so happens to fall to them at No. 11 here. He would give the Raptors a future stretch big who can also protect the rim in smaller lineups, giving them some lineup versatility they haven't had recently. Chriss might have more upside among the late-lottery stretch fours, but Rabb is not far behind in that regard, and I truly like the Chris Bosh comp for his ceiling.

12. Houston Rockets (35-37)
Jakob Poeltl, Utah, C, 20 years old, 7-0, 235 pounds (Previously: No. 12)

This seems like a perfect spot for Poeltl, as the Rockets probably don't pass on his upside if he slips to them. It also gives them another long-term option at center for when Dwight Howard leaves and if Clint Capela's development stalls. I'm not a huge Poeltl fan, as big men who can't shoot threes, struggle at the free-throw line and aren't elite defenders usually don't work out in today's game, but at this point in the draft someone will bite on the promise of a double-double seven-footer.

13. Phoenix Suns via Washington Wizards (35-36)
Deyonta Davis, Michigan State, PF/C, 19 years old, 6-10, 230 pounds (Previously: Not listed)

This is an upside play, and make no mistake, some team will snatch Davis up in the top-15. He will test very well, and the advanced metrics will adore him. Tom Izzo didn't need to give Davis big minutes, but he excelled when he was on the court. At worst, Davis will be a dominant rim protector who can run the floor and is limited offensively in the halfcourt. At best, he could be Andre Drummond 2.0.

14. Chicago Bulls (36-34)
Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame, PG, 21 years old, 6-1, 194 pounds (Previously: No. 11)

The Bulls need to turn the page on the Derrick Rose era, and if they can accept that reality after missing the playoffs following Eastern Conference title hopes to start the season, Jackson would be the best point guard on the board here. He won't be a star, but Jackson should be able to be a middling starting point guard in the league for a half dozen years. He has the athleticism and wingspan to makeup for his lack of height.