The Prospect Post: Mock Lottery 1.0

We are 30 percent of the way through the NBA season, and historically, 14 of the 16 teams in line to make the playoffs at this point will in fact make the playoffs at the end of the season. There also seems to be tier of 13-16 players forming -- perhaps the deepest class since 1996 -- that should comprise the players considered in the lottery this summer, with perhaps a couple players coming on later in the season to steal a spot or two. Considering those two factors, it seems likes a perfect time to release the first Mock Lottery of the season. (That, and I didn't have time to watch a full game this week.)

1. Philadelphia 76ers (6-18)

Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas
6-foot-8 // 203 pounds // 19 years old

People are going to be a little surprised how much Ben Simmons dominates the ball, given his size, essentially serving as the 76ers' version of Giannis Antetokounmpo. For this reason, I like Jackson, who I wrote about in detail earlier this season, a bit more than Markelle Fultz as a fit here. A frontcourt of Jackson, Simmons and Joel Embiid would be amazing, as everyone's weaknesses would be made up for. Jackson and Embiid can shoot well, relative to their positions, while Simmons is a subpar shooter. Jackson and Simmons are excellent passers, while Embiid is a bit of a black hole. Jackson and Embiid are excellent defenders, and Simmons is very James Harden-esque in that area of his game. Essentially it would just free up Simmons to serve as the de facto point guard and have fun running the show on offense, while letting Jackson and Embiid stretch the floor and handle the defensive load. Jackson and Fultz are a coin flip for me at No. 1 at this point in the season, and Jackson is a better fit in Philly.

2. Dallas Mavericks (6-18)

Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
6-foot-4 // 195 pounds // 18 years old

Fultz is a potential superstar, drawing comparisons to James Harden for how effortlessly he scores from anywhere on the court. He would be that mold of point guard, where he racks up assists based on the attention he gets from the defense and how much he dominates the ball, but scoring is his top tool. Fultz would be a perfect fit in Dallas, profiling as their best point guard since Steve Nash. Dirk Nowitzki is likely retiring after the 2017-18 season, and the Mavericks are in a good spot to continue adding top-10 picks for a couple more seasons, with Harrison Barnes and Fultz representing the two building blocks on the roster after this draft.

3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) (6-17)

Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
6-foot-8 // 204 pounds // 18 years old

I did not think Danny Ainge would take Jaylen Brown with the third pick in this year's draft, but I understand why he did. If he thought (likely correctly) that this was a two-player draft, he may have just grabbed Brown because he had the most upside of anyone left on the board. Admittedly, Ainge is a tricky GM to read. That said, I think it comes down to Tatum and Jonathan Isaac here. Isaac is the better bet to someday be a top-10 player in the league, while Tatum is the better bet to make a few All-Star teams. Tatum is also someone I think could play some four in the league pretty soon, even though he is a little undersized, which would appeal to Boston. I see Tatum as a less athletic Blake Griffin. When he catches the ball on the wing, he is a bucket getter, plain and simple. His frame is also set up to easily add 20 pounds of muscle once he gets into the league.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves (7-18)

Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
6-foot-6 // 190 pounds // 19 years old

The Timberwolves are in an enviable spot, in that they will soon have more young assets than they know what to do with. But also a bad spot, in that they have to figure out what to do with all those assets. With that in mind, it seems like a pre-draft trade is inevitable. They could move this pick plus Kris Dunn or Gorgui Dieng for an established top-30 player with one or two years of team control remaining. Or if they love a player here, they could keep this pick and include Zach LaVine or Andrew Wiggins (*ducks*) in a trade. Even if they decide taking a point guard here to pair with Karl-Anthony Towns, Wiggins and LaVine is the best way to go, it still would likely mean trading Dunn and/or Ricky Rubio. Either way, it seems like they will need to do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 of some kind in order to construct the best starting five they can. The fact that they have been this big of a disappointment this season might sway them to reshape the current core, but I think keeping their core three and adding a player from this lottery would be the way to go.

They take the best player available here to either keep or use as currency. I like Frank Ntilikina from France more, but I am in the minority, and if the draft was today, I think Ball would be the pick. Everyone has heard the Jason Kidd comps, and he is truly a special passer, particularly when it comes to passing his teammates open, which is a rare gift. Ball also has the size to defend both guard positions. His shot looks funky, but I'm sold on him being a legitimate three-point shooter, despite the unappealing aesthetics.

5. New Orleans Pelicans (8-18)

Dennis Smith, PG, NC State
6-foot-3 // 195 pounds // 19 years old

This pick might come down to whether or not Dell Demps is still the GM. If he is, he will presumably once again take the player he thinks can help him win right now, as he did with Buddy Hield, passing on a couple players with more upside in the process. Smith would fit the bill here. The Pelicans will be faced with the decision of whether or not to re-sign Jrue Holiday as a free agent this summer, and if they pass on that, Smith could be handed the point guard duties from day one. I wrote about Smith in detail here. If Demps is gone, Jonathan Isaac or Frank Ntilikina would be the obvious picks.

6. Miami Heat (8-17)

Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
6-foot-11 // 205 pounds //19 years old

Isaac could be the third player off the board, but I don't think he falls past six or seven. The Kevin Durant comps are annoying, but they are at least more fitting than they were for Brandon Ingram, as Isaac is a legitimate 6-11. Isaac's size and three-point shooting (43.3 percent) would make him the No. 1 pick in a handful of recent drafts, and the fact that he could slide this far really says something about this class.

7. Phoenix Suns (8-17)

Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
6-foot-5 // 170 pounds // 18 years old

Like the Timberwolves, the Suns seem destined for a pre-draft trade. Four of the seven best players in the draft are point guards, so if the Suns are in a spot where they have to either take a point guard or pass on the best player available, they may be forced to sell Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight for less than market value on draft day. Unlike the Timberwolves, they absolutely should keep this pick, as their core is much further from contending. They could deal Bledsoe, Knight or both during the season too, which would free them up to take the best player available on draft day.

Here they take the best player available in Ntilikina. He is under the radar simply because he is not on TV or in the national discussion. However, by the time the draft process really gets going in April, May and June, Ntilikina's combination of size, athleticism, explosiveness and elite passing and defensive traits should have him in the mix to go in the top-five.

8. Denver Nuggets (9-16)

Harry Giles, PF, Duke
6-foot-11 // 222 pounds // 18 years old

The Nuggets are the third team that will likely shake things up via trade before the draft dust settles. Regardless of what they choose to do, it's time for them to find a potential star, and Giles has that potential. He draws Chris Webber comparisons, and while that skill set may not fit as perfectly in today's game as it did during Webber's prime, it's still a skill set that would lead to multiple All-Star appearances. The big question with Giles is the health of his knees. He has had three knee surgeries since 2013, but even after the second knee surgery he was still considered the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in this draft. While he has not yet played in a college game, he is hoping to return before Christmas. If he can show something close to the same bounce he had before the third surgery, and team doctors are satisfied with the pre-draft medicals, he should go in the top-10. However, there are a variety of scenarios that would lead to him falling out of the top-10, and even out of the top-20.

9. Philadelphia 76ers (via Los Angeles Lakers) (10-17)

De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
6-foot-4 // 171 pounds // 18 years old

Taking Fox, the best point guard remaining on the board, would help address a need in the backcourt for Philadelphia. While he gets comparisons to John Wall because of his speed and rebounding, he profiles as a better version of Brandon Knight at the next level, which would be a good fit with ball-dominant players like Simmons and Embiid on the roster. Indiana's OG Anunoby would easily be the best player available here in my mind, but I'm also the high man on him. That said, if the Sixers took Fultz over Jackson at No. 1, Anunoby would be a better fit here than Fox.

10. Sacramento Kings (9-15)

Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky
6-foot-4 // 185 pounds // 18 years old

If this pick falls out of the top-10, it goes to Chicago, but as things currently stand the Kings just barely project to keep the pick. Some people love Monk, and think he is a borderline top-five talent in this class, thinking he could end up playing point guard at the next level. However, I see a slightly undersized shooting guard. That said, Monk is a top-three or four athlete in this class, and that athleticism should help him guard bigger two guards. He already has NBA three-point range to go with that athleticism, so the tools are there for him to develop into a top-five shooting guard in the league. Monk is a significantly better prospect than Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield, and he is not a lock to go in the top-10 -- another testament to how deep this class is.

11. Washington Wizards (9-14)

Ivan Rabb, PF, California
6-foot-10 // 215 pounds // 19 years old

Rabb is the type of player a team could fall in love with in the top-10, but in this mock he conveniently falls to the Wizards, who could use a power forward to join their young nucleus. I wrote about him last year when he would have been a surefire lottery pick had he come out. The Chris Bosh comp still stands. He is roughly the same age as freshmen Josh Jackson and Lauri Markkanen, so returning to school should not hurt his draft stock.

12. Orlando Magic (11-15)

OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana
6-foot-8 // 215 pounds // 19 years old

This would be a very smart pick by Orlando standards, but they may have a new front office by the time the draft rolls around, and Frank Vogel would certainly be on board with adding the best defender in the entire class. Serge Ibaka is expiring after this season, which will allow Aaron Gordon to move over to his natural position at the four, with Anunoby sliding in at the three. The Magic could be tempted to take Miles Bridges here to help with the scoring load, as Anunoby and Gordon are both still works in progress on the offensive end, but Anunoby is such a better prospect than Bridges that it would be too big of a reach to make sense.

13. Milwaukee Bucks (11-12)

Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona
7-foot // 230 pounds // 19 years old

There are a few tiers in this lottery, and one of the biggest gaps in tiers is the drop off from 12 to 13, so the Bucks are in a tough spot. Markkanen is a seven-footer who is shooting 51.9 percent from the field, 47.7 percent from three-point range (on 4.4 attempts per game) and 88.6 percent from the line. Those shooting rates at the four will land him a spot in the lottery if he can keep it up.

14. Atlanta Hawks (12-13)

Miles Bridges, SF, Michigan State
6-foot-6 // 226 pounds // 18 years old

Bridges is an undersized three who lacks the lateral quickness to stay in front of two guards. However, he is a good athlete and could be a solid three-point shooter, so there are some tools to work with. One problem is that he is too in love with the three-pointer, averaging almost five attempts per game. It would be nice to see him develop more of a mid-range game so that he can be a more dynamic scorer, since his ticket to being an above-average NBA player is being an excellent scorer who more than makes up for his defensive issues. As things currently stand, if his three-point shot does not translate to the next level, he is probably a bust.

Top 10 Prospects

1. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last week: 1)
2. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last week: 2)
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last week: 3)
4. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last week: 5)
5. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last week: 6)
6. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last week: 4)
7. OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana (Last week: 9)
8. Dennis Smith, PG, NC State (Last week: 7)
9. Harry Giles, PF, Duke (Last week: 8)
10. Ivan Rabb, PF, Cal (Last week: 10)