After diving into NBA Fantasy Breakout Players and Fantasy Basketball Bounceback Players, I'm diving into some under-appreciated players in unique situations around the league.
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Monitor the roles and performances of the following players:
Which Spurs can shine through the tank?
Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson made leaps last season in their second and third campaigns, respectively. Johnson enters Year 4 as a 17-points-per-game scorer that shot 39.8% from three last season -- he won't sneak up on anybody.
Focusing on Vassell, the 6-foot-6 guard/wing hybrid is a matchup nightmare with plenty of untapped usage. His trajectory is promising:
GP | MIN | FG | FG% | 3PT | 3P% | FT | FT% | REB | AST | BLK | STL | TO | PTS |
62 | 17.0 | 2.0-4.9 | 40.6 | 0.8-2.4 | 34.7 | 0.7-0.8 | 84.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5.5 |
71 | 27.3 | 4.6-10.8 | 42.7 | 1.9-5.4 | 36.1 | 1.2-1.4 | 83.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 12.3 |
Losing offensive maestro Dejounte Murray will shift new pressure to Vassell. Last season, 80% of Vassell's buckets were assisted, symbolizing dependency. Fortunately, Tre Jones is poised to help. Jones logged over 1,100 minutes last season and recorded a 4.86 AST/TO ratio. He isn't the gravitational force that Murray is, but he'll enable Vassell to move without the ball and continue growing as a triple-threat option without being fixated on.
The removal of Murray's gravity is more likely to affect an elite catch-and-shoot weapon like Johnson. Replication of his 2021-22 production is a realistic expectation for Johnson. Vassell, however, emerges as a focal point in 2022-23 and is capable of creating his own looks in a variety of ways:
Devin Vassell — Smooth stroke and plus athleticism pic.twitter.com/fWdTd5eBo3
— Henry Weinberg (@iHENRYWEINBERG) October 15, 2022
Vassell ranked in the top-20 percent league-wide for total shot attempts from the midrange. He ranked in the 72nd percentile by connecting on 43% of said attempts (per CleaningTheGlass). An active player off the ball, Vassell will continue generating and knocking down looks in the midrange -- it's a polished component of his game.
Reference the box stats above. Vassell's three-point shooting experienced healthy growth amid a giant leap in volume. He's also an ascending finisher at the rim. Possessing good body control, ambidextrous abilities, and acumen to seek/finish through contact, Vassell has all the traits to blossom into a three-level scorer.
Ziaire Williams -- a pivotal piece to Memphis championship hopes?
There are combo-forward minutes available in Memphis. With Jaren Jackson out until at least December, Ziaire Williams has a chance to capitalize on increased usage.
Steven Adams remains anchored at center. Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama are the direct positional fill-ins for Jackson, but Clarke alongside Adams results in limited spacing. Aldama has quality spacing ability, but it's checked by a lack of quickness -- explosiveness exploits him. In an era of positionless basketball, Memphis will mix and match plenty, but Williams is the best fit, given his athleticism, offensive upside, and size. At an ideal 6-foot-9, the 21-year-old holds a future sharing the court with JJJ as well.
Read more on Aldama: Fantasy Basketball Deep Sleepers
Williams thrives in the midrange, connecting on 45% of his midrange attempts last season. That being said, his usage last season isn't indicative of his style. Williams attempted 56% of his shots from beyond the arc as a rookie, despite hitting just 29.4% of his threes in his one-and-done campaign at Stanford. As he builds comfort and rises through the hierarchy in Memphis, he'll become less of a system player.
With Jackson injured and Kyle Anderson now in Minnesota, Williams figures to be a more tailored part of the gameplan. In the same way Ja Morant benefits from Adams' screening (generation of driving leverage), Williams can also be a beneficiary (separation for midrange looks -- handoffs, off-screen movement, some PnR too). Additionally, Williams was an excellent finisher in 2021-22 (image below via Bucket List):
Williams finished 82% of his looks at the rim as a rookie -- ranking in the 97th percentile of the league. The smattering of midrange is already impressive. The development of his three-point shot was a focal point and a byproduct of his outskirts role last season. There is incremental growth being made:
| Sample | 3P% | Volume |
| Stanford 2020-21 | 29.4% | 4.0 3PT/g (23-of-79) |
| Memphis Grizzlies 2021-22 | 31.4% | 3.1 3PT/g (76-of-242) |
| Summer League 2022 | 33.3% | 4.8 3PT/g (8-of-24) |
| NBA Preseason 2022-23 | 41.7% | 4.0 3PT/g (5-of-12) |
There is also steady progress in his assist production and turnover prevention. His defensive profile is promising. Everything is trending in the right direction.
Will a young backcourt tandem bust down the door in New York?
Across all rookie seasons dating back to 2015, Grimes' 38.1% clip from beyond the arc last year ranks as the 14th-best mark. In addition to a promising shooting profile, Grimes demonstrated well-rounded offensive strides in 2022 Summer League:
Quentin Grimes — versatile scorer, strong handle, ascending playmaker pic.twitter.com/RtmSBNtUGq
— Henry Weinberg (@iHENRYWEINBERG) October 15, 2022
Grimes showed flashes of a deep bag throughout his rookie season and is more than a catch-and-shoot/3&D player. Grimes is undersized to be a stout wing defender, but he's a physical and prideful archetype that graded as a quality defender for the Knicks last season. He'll get low and into his assignments effectively.
Evan Fournier has the edge over Grimes for starter minutes (Grimes is still ramping up from a foot injury as well), but the 22-year-old has untapped upside that could yield a starter-esque workload. Interestingly, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, and Jalen Brunson are all left-handed players, so that could necessitate more lineup staggering in New York if spacing becomes an issue.
The Knicks' bench will earn the franchise wins this season. Expect New York to use a 10-man rotation with pretty impressive balance -- the roster is deep. However, it makes Immanuel Quickley a stifled breakout candidate. The 23-year-old averaged 16.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists, with a 43.6 percent average from the field in 27.5 minutes per contest in his final 23 games. A closer look verifies his quality performance. After the All-Star Break last season, Quickley shot 38.3% from beyond the arc -- in line with his 38.9% clip from 2020-2021.
Quickley utilizes his speed well and is a blossoming creator (58% of his buckets were unassisted). The Knicks were plus-6.7 points through over 3,400 possessions with him on the floor last season.
He's displayed solid chemistry with Derrick Rose, with qualifying lineups generating a plus-12.8 net rating. That duo will likely receive sizable run together off the bench. With abilities to play on and off the ball, another productive season is the trajectory.
Quickley's preseason performance was rough. Although a 12:4 AST/TO ratio is excellent, he's shot just 34% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc. This trend likely pushes him down the depth chart. If he demonstrates an improved ability to score at the rim and a consistent/booming three-point stroke, he's a candidate to supply impactful numbers.
Is Aleksej Pokusevski a breakout candidate?
People see a seven-footer with fluidity or passing acumen and become enamored with the idea of a modern unicorn. Pokusevski is a competent passer with a respectable handle and impressive two-way length. He is also just 20 years old and heading into his third NBA season. Everything about Pokusevski's game is extremely raw.
| Year | GP | MIN | FG | FG% | 3PT | 3P% | FT | FT% | REB | AST | BLK | STL | TO | PTS |
2020-21 | 45 | 24.2 | 3.1-9.1 | 34.1 | 1.3-4.6 | 28.0 | 0.7-0.9 | 73.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 8.2 |
2021-22 | 61 | 20.2 | 3.0-7.5 | 40.8 | 0.9-3.2 | 28.9 | 0.6-0.8 | 70.0 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 7.6 |
Pokusevski vastly improved as a finisher last season, converting 66% of his looks at the rim, as opposed to just 52% in 2020-21. While he still ranked in the bottom-five percentile league-wide in effective field goal percentage last season, Pokusevski averaged 12.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists in his final 19 games last season. Despite the climb in numbers, he shot just 43.3% over that span. Among qualifiers, lineups featuring Pokusevski and Josh Giddey ranked as the worst scoring units in the league, generating just 97.2 points per 100 possessions (per CleaningTheGlass).
The optimism lies in Pokusevski taking a leap in personal skill development and feel for the game. Receiving adequate minutes to breakout is possible. Minutes alongside Jaylin Williams could be Pokusevski's best frontcourt partner yet. He's the only young, traditional rim protector on the roster. Pokusevski creates defensive weaknesses when he's the tallest player on the floor.
Oklahoma City insiders expect Pokusevski to earn the starting role. He's flashed the alluring point-forward skillset through six preseason games, averaging 9.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Playing alongside a pick-and-pop, floor-spacing rim protector like Chet Holmgren would have been ideal for Pokusevski.
Alas, Oklahoma City still isn't an environment conducive to maximizing growth. Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson aren't a functional duo -- indicated by a minus-22.4 net rating. Darius Bazley and Ousmane Dieng need minutes. Tanking looms. That all being said, if the Thunder staff give Pokusevski a long leash, monitoring his early season production could be very worthwhile.
Can P.J. Washington step up in Charlotte?
Entering a contract year, Washington's ceiling has never been higher. Miles Bridges is presumably out of the equation, Gordon Hayward hasn't proven an ability to stay healthy, and Jalen McDaniels lacks Washington's physicality. The 24-year-old Washington holds a positional niche all his own.
Across the past two seasons, Washington has split his minutes between power forward and center. As the only floor-spacing big on the roster, Washington will have the opportunity to showcase his skills. He knows his strengths — canning threes and getting to the restricted area — and plays to them. The Kentucky product is a career 37.5% three-point shooter on 4.4 attempts per game. At just 6-foot-7, Washington is a below-average finisher at the rim for his position, but he's still an above-average scorer in/around the restricted area (61.9 FG%).
There are multiple obstacles to consider here. Washington was cold in preseason action, shooting 4-of-17 from beyond the arc across three games prior to suffering an ankle sprain. Speculatively, Charlotte feels destined for a bottom-five finish in the Eastern Conference. With that context in mind, the environment may not be conducive to high-quality looks and functional offense for Washington -- especially if LaMelo Ball (ankle) is cared for with an abundance of caution.
As an impending restricted free agent, Washington may be dealt. Improved agility and defensive savvy are the only factors that prevent him from being an ideal stretch four or super small-ball five. Although overall defensive grades have been below average, he's shown a propensity to pick up challenging defensive assignments. Coach Steve Clifford could extract defensive value from Washington, or a new system could help. Overall, 2022-23 is a pivotal season for Washington, with a wide range of possible outcomes.
