Back in August, I sat down with RotoWire's own James Anderson for our annual tradition of picking each team's win total against the Vegas over/under. It's one of my favorite exercises of the entire NBA year and makes for a fun retrospective with the 2018-19 regular season now in the books.
To say these picks aged poorly would be an understatement. Despite my near certainty that this would be the year I finally go 30 for 30, I ended up with only 13 correct picks. I won't get into too much detail here, but what I will say is none of the incorrect picks were my fault and I will not take responsibility for them. I simply won't. Frankly, I was robbed and I wouldn't be surprised to find out this was a coordinated, league-wide attack against my credibility.
Now, with Part I in the books, let's run through the rest of the over/unders and attempt to discern what went right and what went wrong.
Miami Heat
Over/Under: 41.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 39-43
Back in August, I wrote that the Heat had put together a team engineered to win exactly 41 games. Based on that, I really can't give you a good reason as to why I bet that they'd get to 42. I guess I really like Bam Adebayo, I don't know. In my defense, Miami got to 44 wins a year ago with Kelly Olynyk as its leader in win shares and didn't
Back in August, I sat down with RotoWire's own James Anderson for our annual tradition of picking each team's win total against the Vegas over/under. It's one of my favorite exercises of the entire NBA year and makes for a fun retrospective with the 2018-19 regular season now in the books.
To say these picks aged poorly would be an understatement. Despite my near certainty that this would be the year I finally go 30 for 30, I ended up with only 13 correct picks. I won't get into too much detail here, but what I will say is none of the incorrect picks were my fault and I will not take responsibility for them. I simply won't. Frankly, I was robbed and I wouldn't be surprised to find out this was a coordinated, league-wide attack against my credibility.
Now, with Part I in the books, let's run through the rest of the over/unders and attempt to discern what went right and what went wrong.
Miami Heat
Over/Under: 41.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 39-43
Back in August, I wrote that the Heat had put together a team engineered to win exactly 41 games. Based on that, I really can't give you a good reason as to why I bet that they'd get to 42. I guess I really like Bam Adebayo, I don't know. In my defense, Miami got to 44 wins a year ago with Kelly Olynyk as its leader in win shares and didn't really lose anyone of value.
Two things I failed to account for:
1. Goran Dragic missing 46 games and starting only 22
2. Josh Richardson going down at the worst possible time
The first is pretty self-explanatory. Dragic may not be Miami's best player -- that's probably Richardson -- but he's still among the most valuable, and his absence forced the Heat to roll out some unconventional, and often redundant, lineups. Other than Dragic, the Heat don't have another true point guard on the roster, and that was especially true after they dealt away Tyler Johnson. In the end, that meant both Dion Waiters and Rodney McGruder spent more than half of their total minutes at point guard, while Wayne Ellington and Dwyane Wade also moonlighted. Justise Winslow had the most success as the de facto point guard, and while he had another up-and-down year overall, his 35-game run from late-December to mid-March -- 14.4 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 46% FG, 39% 3PT -- was the best sustained stretch of his career.
Richardson getting hurt was just bad luck. He'd only missed two games all season prior to tweaking his heel and groin in late-March, and at the time he went down, Miami was 36-38 -- in the thick of the playoff race and needing to go 6-2 to hit the over. The Heat finished 3-5, losing twice to Boston and once each to Minnesota, Toronto and Brooklyn.
Milwaukee Bucks
Over/Under: 46.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 60-22
In retrospect, this is a laughably low number, and though I took the over with confidence, I by no means expected Milwaukee to blow it out of the water like this.
Flashes of the Bucks' potential were on display last season, but even with the caveats -- poor coaching, Jason Terry playing 48 minutes a game, ridiculous defensive scheme, etc. -- a jump up to 60 wins was above even the most optimistic projections. As it turns out, Jason Kidd really was that bad. Under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks morphed into a two-way juggernaut, improving in nearly every statistical category and leading the league in net rating (by a mile) and defensive rating, while ranking fourth in offense and second in true shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo went from MVP candidate to maybe the best two-way force in the league, and Budenholzer pushed all of the right buttons to maximize a deep, but not spectacular, supporting cast.
As far as the over/under is concerned, it was virtually wrapped up by Christmas Day, when Milwaukee registered its 23rd win in 33 games. The Bucks went into the All-Star break at 43-14 and swiftly got win No. 47 with a 141-140 overtime win in Sacramento on Feb. 27 -- their 61st game of the season. At that point, Milwaukee had yet to lose back-to-back games, though that streak would end up being snapped less than a week later in a collaborative effort by the Jazz and Kelly Oubre's Phoenix Suns.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over/Under: 44.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 36-46
Personally, I'm not sure this one should count. In August, Minnesota was coming off of a 47-win season and a (very brief) return to the playoffs. Keep in mind that at the time, Jimmy Butler was generally still considered a fierce, emotionally stable competitor. After a pretty quiet summer, I didn't expect Minnesota to be much better than a year ago, but I also didn't expect a top-down implosion, complete with a coaching change and an eventual deal to send Butler to Philadelphia.
The pieces Minnesota received in return -- namely, Robert Covington and Dario Saric -- didn't have much of an impact, with Saric struggling to adjust and Covington missing the final 43 games of the season. Maybe if the Butler saga never happens, the Wolves find a way to 45 wins -- they got to 47 last year with Butler missing 17 games -- but in hindsight it's clear the situation was never going to be tenable long-term.
New Orleans Pelicans
Over/Under: 44.5
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 33-49
This is another number that looks bad in retrospect, but the Pels won 48 games last season and swept their way through Round 1 before bleeding out against Golden State. I took the under, but I didn't feel great about it -- mostly because I had major concerns about the five-through-10 guys on the roster.
As it turns out, New Orleans got decent contributions from E'Twaun Moore, Darius Miller, Jahlil Okafor and Kenrich Williams, but it was the top of the roster that was the problem. Most of the fingers will be pointed in the direction of Anthony Davis -- and rightfully so -- but the Pelicans' season was over before The Request, which probably doesn't happen -- at least not until the summer -- if New Orleans wasn't eight games under .500 through 50 games.
Obviously, as soon as Davis' camp dropped the warhead, the under was virtually sealed. Even if Davis had played his full minutes load after the break, the Pels would've needed to finish 19-4 to hit the over. I want to say stranger things have happened, but this is the rare case in which I'm not sure that's true.
New York Knicks
Over/Under: 30.5
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 17-65
First of all, this was a comically high number. I know it's the Knicks and I know it's New York, but 31 wins? For a team that's only good player ripped up his knee in January? For a team with an opening-night starting lineup of Enes Kanter, Lance Thomas, Tim Hardaway, Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke? For a team willfully employing Emmanuel Mudiay?
Knowing what we know now, a lot of these numbers look silly, but this one is particularly tough to grasp. Sure, the Knicks found a way to 29 wins last season, but that was never going to replicable without their best player, who was in the lineup for 22 of those 29 wins a year ago.
I wrote in Part I that the Cavs' under was my easiest pick, but the more I think about it, this one may have been even more of a no-brainer. For Cleveland, there was at least a chance Kevin Love would stay healthy and maybe do enough to keep the Cavs out of the cellar. But without Kristaps Porzingis, the Knicks don't have that guy. What was the best-case scenario here? Damyean Dotson blossoms into a superstar? The math doesn't add up.
Of course, no one foresaw the Porzingis trade, which functioned as an official waiving of the white flag, but the notion that this roster could win 20 games, let alone 30, was essentially dashed shortly after the calendar turned to 2019. The Knicks were 9-29 on New Year's Day, just before the halfway point. They beat the LeBron-less Lakers a few days later, then dropped 18 in a row -- the longest single-season losing streak in franchise history*.
*Which reminds me, the 2014-15 Knicks -- Bargnani, Prigioni, Quincy Acy, etc. -- lost 10 in a row, beat the Celtics, then lost 16 in a row. Twenty-six losses in 27 games. Coincidentally, Melo shut himself down less than a month later.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over/Under: 49.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 49-33
This probably the worst beat of Part II. For most of the season, OKC was well on pace to blow that number out of the water. Even after a slow start, the Thunder were on pace for 50 wins at the halfway point. A month later, they were 37-19, tracking as a 54-win outfit and, arguably, the second-best team in a loaded conference. At that point, Paul George had officially barged his way into the MVP debate, entering February as the near-consensus No. 3 behind, in some order, Harden and Giannis. George was the best two-way wing in the league, and the Thunder had a reasonable case to be considered perhaps the biggest threat to Golden State in the West, even with Russell Westbrook's jumper ruthlessly dishing out body blows to the rim -- and sometimes backboard -- on most nights.
Then came the All-Star break and, shortly after, George's mysterious shoulder injury -- one that would continue to nag him through the playoffs, robbing him of the silky stroke that led to 44 percent shooting from deep in December and January. After the break, the Thunder finished 12-13, fading from the top tier in the West and looking more like the up-again-down-again squad from early November. After winning back-to-back games only once between Feb. 14 and the end of March, the Thunder -- suddenly fighting to avoid a first-round matchup with Golden State -- finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak, falling just short of the over.
I don't even have any bad jokes for this one. It seemed like a lock at the break, but the combination of George's shoulder and Westbrook's erratic play was ultimately the death knell for a franchise that's now 4-12 in playoff games since Dion Waiters left.
Orlando Magic
Over/Under: 31.0
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 42-40
So. I crunched the numbers, and I was off by double-digits here, but I still don't hate this pick. Historically, at least in the post-Turkoglu era, the Magic have been a trainwreck from the top down. From trading Tobias Harris for Ersan Ilyasova to trading Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka to trading Serge Ibaka for Terrence Ross and Anzejs Pasecniks (real person), Orlando has seemingly been without a direction, impatiently scuffling around the bottom of the East while cycling through five coaches in as many seasons.
To begin the year, it looked like that cycle would continue, as Orlando got off to a 2-6 start, including a 32-point loss to Charlotte and a 35-point drubbing at the hands of the Clippers. But give Steve Clifford credit. Even as the Magic continued to intersperse much-needed wins with horrifically lopsided losses, he never wavered in his approach. Four players started at least 78 games, with Nikola Vucevic emerging as a legitimate All-Star, and the closest thing to a franchise centerpiece since Dwight Howard. By April, the Magic had willed their way to 42 wins, a top-10 defense, and the franchise's first playoff berth in almost a decade.
Even after going 15-7 with some impressive victories after the break, the Magic were never a true threat to win a playoff series against the four powers in the East. But beating the over/under by 11 wins is no small feat -- especially for a team that split its point guard minutes between D.J. Augustin, Isaiah Briscoe, Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over/Under: 54.5
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 51-31
Considering the roster turnover, this pick was basically obsolete as soon as Jimmy Butler arrived in Philadelphia. Had the Sixers begun the season with Butler and Tobias Harris, I probably would've taken the over, but not without some skepticism. For as good as they are when they're at their best, I had my doubts as to whether that version of the Sixers -- the one that ended last season on a 16-game winning streak -- would be the one that shows up on most nights. Fifty-five wins is a high number for any team, especially one that depends heavily on a point guard who can't shoot and a 7-2 center with rickety knees.
Even as someone who's still very much occupying acreage on Simmons Peninsula, I wasn't sure how much he'd improve the bottom line without a jumper, and while that fear proved to be correct, it's difficult to accurately assess Simmons' season as a whole, given that the Sixers took the form of three very distinct teams over the course of 82 games. With that said, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that, in the end, Simmons being able to shoot the basketball would not have hurt the Sixers.
Phoenix Suns
Over/Under: 28.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 19-63
As covered in Part I, taking the Bulls' over was really, really bad. Egregious, even. But this is easily my worst pick. I really don't know what I was thinking. All I have is a note I jotted down in August that reads: they just really need Brandon Knight to play well.
Again, I don't know what I was thinking.
Portland Trail Blazers
Over/Under: 42.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 53-29
It was understandable to be low on Portland after last year's humiliating first-round exit, but a 7.5-win drop-off felt like too much for a team with this much talent. Maybe Vegas was banking on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum collapsing in on themselves -- that's really the only explanation -- but if anything the opposite happened, with Lillard bouncing back to have another All-NBA-caliber offensive season, while McCollum once again filled the secondary scoring role at an expert level. Portland jumped out to a 10-3 start, and while there was some mild turbulence in November and December, the Blazers dropped only 13 games from Jan. 1 on, securing the No. 3 seed out West and besting last year's regular season by four wins.
We'll see how far it ultimately carries them, but in running it back with essentially the same core, the Blazers did something few teams are patient enough -- or fiscally able -- to try. Portland's top-five minutes-getters in 2017-18 -- McCollum, Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner -- were its top-five again this season, and while Shabazz Napier, Pat Connaughton and Ed Davis were significant losses from a deep bench, the quartet of Moe Harkless, Seth Curry, Zach Collins and Jake Layman were arguably even more effective.
Sacramento Kings
Over/Under: 26.0
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 39-43
Really bad pick by me. As I did with the Magic, I took the under here on principle. The number could've been 0.5 wins and I would've had to think about it.
Like most, I didn't foresee the De'Aaron Fox/Buddy Hield dual-breakout, and I underestimated the NBA-readiness of Marvin Bagley, who brought much-needed athleticism and finishing ability to a team Zach Randolph led in scoring last season (for real).
In actuality, 26 wins is just way too low of a line. I would've been wrong no matter what, but I should've put my personal feelings aside and recognized that.
San Antonio Spurs
Over/Under: 44.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 48-34
I'll take the win, but I can assure you this was nothing more than a vote of confidence in Gregg Popovich. And I probably would've changed my pick after the Dejounte Murray injury in October.
If there's anything I can take a little bit of credit for, it's that I thought DeMar DeRozan would bring much-needed stability, even if it meant pushing the limits of three-point avoidance. While DeRozan somehow managed to take a step back as an outside shooter, he had the most efficient scoring season of his career and set career-bests in rebounds and assists per game.
The Spurs probably played over their heads for much of last season, but I felt as though the perception that they played hardball with the Lakers and dealt Kawhi Leonard to Toronto for pennies on the dollar played into the low over/under. Kawhi is obviously a much better player and much better franchise asset than DeRozan -- that's well beyond the realm of debate -- but San Antonio wasn't simply swapping out one for the other. In reality, it was more like the Spurs were adding DeRozan to last year's roster, which won 40 games without Leonard.
Toronto Raptors
Over/Under: 54.5
The Pick: Under
Final Record: 58-24
I went back and forth on this one, mostly because I was worried about Kawhi Leonard's health. That actually ended up being accurate, and had you told me Leonard would miss 22 games, I would've been very comfortable with the under.
What I didn't realize is that Toronto had someone in Pascal Siakam who was ready to fill the void whenever Leonard sat. Siakam ended up being the perfect Kawhi insurance, pumping out 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game while terrorizing opponents in transition and leaving no loose ball un-chased. Even with Kawhi missing more than a quarter of the season, Toronto finished with a top-five offense and top-five defense, posting the third-best net rating (+6.0), trailing only Milwaukee and Golden State.
Hitting the over on any number in the mid-50s is never a cinch, but the Raptors left very little doubt, joining Milwaukee in the never lost three games in a row club, and beefing up the frontcourt by adding Marc Gasol at the deadline. Toronto notched win No. 55 with four games remaining as part of a strong, 7-1 finish to the regular season.
Utah Jazz
Over/Under: 49.0
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 50-32
Utah barely got there -- and may have gotten a little help from Denver in Game 81 -- but, once again, I'll take it. I was fairly confident in the over after this team won 48 games a year ago with Rudy Gobert missing half the season. While Donovan Mitchell struggled to make a second-year leap, it was offset by a full season of Gobert and a second-half push. After falling to OKC in double-overtime on Feb. 22, the Jazz dropped only six more games the rest of the way. Three of those came in an eight-day span in March, and another came via an overtime defeat in a meaningless Game 82 against the Clippers.
Only seven games over .500 at the All-Star break, the Jazz transformed into a two-way force the rest of the way, ranking first in defense, fourth in offense and second in net rating in 25 games after the break. Though Utah reeled off impressive wins over Denver (twice) and Milwaukee, the Jazz largely took advantage of a favorable second-half schedule, which included only eight games against eventual playoff teams. Within that was an ultra-soft late-season stretch in which they faced 16 non-playoff teams in 18 games.
Washington Wizards
Over/Under: 44.5
The Pick: Over
Final Record: 32-50
I would like to submit a motion to dismiss this one, citing the Dwight Howard injury. I may be the lone remaining Howard defender in the upper-midwest, but I really, genuinely thought he'd make a positive impact -- or at least be an upgrade over Marcin Gortat.
On a slightly more serious note, the Wizards were cooked as soon as John Wall went down. But had he stayed healthy, I'm confident Washington ends up as a mid-40s-win team, especially with Bradley Beal ascending to another level after losing Wall. Worst-case, they end up closer to the 40-43-win range, battling with Detroit and Orlando for a playoff spot.
