This article is part of our Offseason Checkup series.
This offseason, we've have had the movers and shakers … and the Trail Blazers.
After two consecutive trips to the playoffs that failed to yield any silverware, the Blazers sensed that an out-of-contract LaMarcus Aldridge wouldn't return, and they began a roster overhaul with a surprising pre-draft trade that sent Nicolas Batum to the Hornets in return for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh.
On draft day, the Blazers selected Rondae Hollis-Jefferson with the 23rd overall pick to seemingly fill Batum's role as the starting small forward before trading Hollis-Jefferson and veteran backup point guard Steve Blake to the Nets for Mason Plumlee and the rights to the 41st overall pick, Pat Connaughton.
Via free agency, they let starters Wesley Matthews (signed with Mavs), Robin Lopez (signed with Knicks), and Aldridge (signed with Spurs) leave for nothing, and the Blazers replaced them with Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis. Arron Afflalo, who started in 19 games after Matthews tore his Achilles and was ruled out for the season, also left in free agency, signing a deal with the Knicks.
Finally, the Blazers added Maurice Harkless from the Magic, trading a second-round draft pick to acquire the 22-year-old player entering his fourth season.
This upheaval leaves Damian Lillard as the last man standing in Portland.
There's already been much discussion around how these changes, in particular removing Aldridge from the equation, will affect Lillard's fantasy value for the coming season. Aldridge was the key offensive focal point for the Blazers last season with a team-high 23.8 points on 19.9 field goal attempts.
Let's take a look at how Lillard performed with Aldridge on and off the court:
Damian Lillard 2014-15* | With Aldridge on the court | With Aldridge off the court |
Minutes | 3,125 | 807 |
Points per minute | 0.58 | 0.63 |
Field Goal Percentage | 43.2% | 40.7% |
2-Point Percentage | 50.2% | 45.1% |
Three-Pointer Percentage | 33.3% | 34.3% |
Field Goal attempts per minute | 0.46 | 0.53 |
Threes attempted per minute | 0.19 | 0.21 |
Assists per 100 possessions | 8.7 | 8.7 |
What do all the off/on-court stats mean?
Well, it confirms the general feeling that with Lillard now being the main offensive weapon, he should see an increase in field goal attempts, as highlighted by his gain from 0.46 to 0.53 with Aldridge off the court. This will result in more points and three-pointers per game, but that bump in scoring will also likely lead to his field goal percentage dropping, which it has from 43.2% with Aldridge on the court to 40.7% with Aldridge on the bench.
Although Lillard's assist rate stayed the same at 8.7 with Aldridge on or off the court, Lillard still had Matthews, Batum, Lopez, and an efficient Meyers Leonard - who played backup power forward next to Robin Lopez - around him when Aldridge was resting. It's fair to make the assumption that Lillard's assists per game will drop with the fact that his new teammates are worse shooters and floor spacers than what he had to work with last season.
What does this mean for Lillard's value?
With Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and John Wall the top-tier point guards, it still leaves Lillard in the second tier of point guards with Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, and Jeff Teague. Irving (fractured kneecap) and Lowry (has only played 75+ games in three of his 10 seasons in the NBA) come with injury risk, whilst Teague is safe and consistent but still lacks that killer game with massive fantasy lines needed to lead your fantasy team to a championship as a number one point guard option. Teague only had 10 double-doubles in 73 games last season.
Lillard comes with the peace of mind that he has yet to miss a regular season game, and his scoring, three-pointers, and free throw percentage rival that of any point guard not named Steph Curry.
With all that said, the holes in Lillard's fantasy game are evident. He has a poor field goal percentage which looks poised to drop to around 40 percent on a high volume of shots, an average assist rate for a top point guard which projects to be the lowest in his career, and a low steals rate which he's improved on but that remains subpar when compared to many of his peers.
These weaknesses are tough to cover if Lillard is your main point guard option, especially in rotisserie formats.
Granted, Lillard will still be worthy of a late-second or early-third round selection in standard re-draft leagues, but careful consideration will need to be made as to who you draft around him to negate his weaknesses when drafting.
