This article is part of our NBA Draft series.
With Thursday's NBA Draft completed, we finally know where each rookie will play next season. Now, we can start speculating about potential role and fantasy value. Summer League will bring more information, but for now, here are our Top 5 rookies for fantasy basketball.
Editor's note: This article pertains to the 2023 Draft and does not include Chet Holmgren.
Also, check out RotoWire's Top 150 Fantasy Basketball Rankings.
No. 1 - Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
The big question: How good will one of the best prospects of all time be as a rookie?
Twitter would tell you Wembanyama is already the GOAT, and you have to draft him in the first round. He's -160 on FanDuel in the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds. But, is that what history tells us? Let's quickly look at some examples before breaking down Wemby's game.
As a rookie, LeBron James ranked 22nd, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked 18th, Anthony Davis ranked 36th, Blake Griffin ranked 57th and Dwight Howard ranked 64th (8-cat, per-game value) None of these are a great comp -- none exist for Wembanyama -- though Towns and Davis are probably the closest. As a rookie, KAT averaged 18/10/2 on 54/34/81 shooting with 1.7 blocks, making 0.4 threes per game in 32.0 minutes. AD played 28.8 minutes per game and averaged 14/8/1 on 52/00/75 shooting with 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals, failing to make a single three-pointer.
Eventually, Davis went on to post back-to-back-to-back seasons averaging at least 18/10/2 with 0.4 threes, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals -- essentially a blend of his and KAT's best rookie-year numbers. In those years, he ranked fifth in fantasy one and second twice.
But, again, for a rookie to reach first-round heights, even when that player goes on to do amazing things later in his career, is rare. So, what do we expect out of Wembanyama?
Maybe he is a blend of KAT and AD in the fantasy realm, but expecting that to scale to its true heights as a rookie feels unreasonable. Plus, early indications are that the Spurs will attempt to be cautious with Wembanyama, possibly limiting his workload early and avoiding back-to-backs. We'll know more as training camp approaches.
At the very least, I expect his defense to translate. He blocked 3.0 shots per game (9.7 BLK%) last season, also contributing 0.8 steals (1.3 STL%). Only one player in NBA history has registered those percentages...Mitchell Robinson in 2018-19. He ranked 24th in per-minute fantasy value that season, by the way, but averaged just 20.6 MPG. But now the question is, what if Mitchell Robinson crossed people over (not in summer workout videos) and shot threes (not in summer workout videos)? And this is where the conversation becomes abstract, and I've talked myself in a circle.
My personal conclusion is that it's completely reasonable to draft him where KAT landed as a rookie, which was 18th. But I actually think he'll be gone by then in most drafts. Zion Williamson's ADP in CBS leagues as a rookie was 17, though a more reasonable 41 on Yahoo and 81 on ESPN. I'll do what I have to in order to get him on at least one of my teams.
No. 2 - Brandon Miller, Hornets
The big question: How much playmaking will he be tasked with?
Miller was made in a lab to entice the modern NBA general manager. He's 6-foot-9 with excellent shot-making ability and a high feel for the game on both ends. His floor is a high-level three-and-D option; his ceiling is superstar.
How much of that ceiling will be realized in Year 1? Miller is a good ballhandler and can pass well for his position, but Charlotte is pairing him with LaMelo Ball's 30.0 percent usage rate and his offensive philosophy of no-look passing and 30-foot transition threes. Terry Rozier likes to handle as well, and who knows what's going on with Miles Bridges' future at this point? Miller could use a few extra pounds, too. The average NBA forward will overpower him.
Still, any time we start criticizing, we can just default to his floor. At minimum, LaMelo is gift-wrapping Miller open threes, and the rookie should pick up plenty of buckets late in the shot clock as a bailout option, especially if he's given run with the second unit. If things go right, Miller could be the Hornets' versatile No. 2 option right away.
No. 3 - Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers
The big question: Damian Lillard and the guard logjam
We know Henderson is a No. 1 overall talent, but he slipped to No. 3 in this three-man draft by no fault of his own. He lands in a situation that is both fluid and dense, like molasses.
Will Damian Lillard be traded? Will Portland trade their other young guards for veterans? Will the organization let things play out to see how well the team performs, and then make a move? Are they really going to bring Scoot off the bench? Would they entertain moving Simons to small forward? What if that works? What if it doesn't? Is free will an illusion? Is there a meaning to life?
Questions aside, I believe he should be the third rookie off the board. His floor spacing is my main concern. Henderson shot 14-of-51 (27.5%) from three last season and an ok-but-not-that-good-for-a-guard 42-of-55 (76.4%) from the free-throw line. Off-ball cuts were part of his game last year -- and his explosive athleticism makes him deadly for backdoor lobs -- but NBA teams are much more adept at keeping non-shooters contained than lower-level leagues.
Ultimately, I have faith in Henderson's talent, motor and work ethic keeping him on the floor. And when the ball finds him, he's a great decision-maker and a complete blur. That should be enough to provide fantasy value, even if Portland's situation doesn't change.
No. 4 - Amen Thompson, Rockets
The big question: Can he adapt to playing more off-ball?
First and foremost, I'll admit that I'm an Overtime Elite skeptic. The league had three teams in 2021-22 and six teams last year, with players aged 16-20 -- the Thompson twins being 20 years old. They weren't facing any other high-level prospects their age. Background beats play during possessions, and there's an emcee live commentating the game to the fans. It comes off like high-level rec ball sometimes. I really have no idea what I'm watching.
However, that doesn't mean we can ignore that Thompson was a five-star recruit. He still may have gone this high in the draft if he finished out his senior year of high school and was a good-but-not-amazing one-and-done in college. He has gravity-warping athleticism -- vertical, lateral and straight line. Combined with his ballhandling and vision, Thompson excels at making plays for others by collapsing the defense. And he's also a good defender with the size and speed to guard multiple positions.
So why did he get drafted fourth? Thompson can't shoot. It's bizarre how such a fluid athlete could have a shot that's so stiff and robotic, but that's the case here. He made 0.6 threes per game at 23.3 percent last season, and he shot just 64.6 percent from the free-throw line. This is where I start to get nervous.
What's Houston's plan? Do they just turn the keys over to Thompson? Then what about Kevin Porter? We probably want more touches for Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, too, not to mention Jabari Smith. But then is Thompson suddenly playing off-ball? Can he function like that -- an off-ball fifth option? And then when he gets to the free-throw line off a hard cut, he makes 1-of-2 every time?
Even with the questions, I still think Houston will do everything it can to feature him, and his potential for defensive stats could raise the floor on his fantasy value.
No. 5 - Jarace Walker, Pacers
Things get pretty murky after the Top 3, and I considered both Ausar Thompson and Taylor Hendricks for this spot. Ultimately, I give Walker the nod as someone that could easily start and play 30-plus minutes right away, and it's easy to envision his role in the Pacers' offense, run by an impressive distributor in Tyrese Haliburton.
The sticking point in Walker's profile is that he's an unproven three-point shooter, but that doesn't matter as much while playing next to a three-point shooting center in Myles Turner. Being on Indiana, Walker can play an untraditional role (at least in the modern NBA) as a pick-and-roll power forward without it gumming up the works.
He's a tight-end playing in the NBA, listed at 6-foot-7, 249 pounds with a 7-foot-3 wingspan. He's a good rebounder on both ends and should pick up offensive boards due to his projected offensive role. When he's in the paint, he can barge through out-of-position defenders but also has some finesse to move around plodders and finish with touch.
Walker's defense is also a major selling point. He averaged 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes as a freshman last season and can switch out onto the perimeter or block shots at the rim. That will help keep him on the court even when he's having an off night on offense.
