This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a modest four-game slate Thursday night, which is typical following a big Wednesday ledger. This promises to be a particularly challenging night for DFS purposes with some of the biggest names in the industry (LeBron James, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons) already confirmed out, and Joel Embiid potentially set to join them because of a shoulder injury. Naturally, the fact those players are unavailable will make ownership even harder to navigate than it already would be on a small slate.
As usual, we'll proceed to break down the positional outlook below, along with possible chalk plays and some likely under-owned bargains that could help you round out your lineups with a couple of superstars.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's take a more comprehensive look at Thursday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the two games with the highest projected totals on Thursday's slate:
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder (Projected total: 222.5 points)
These two teams avoid the injury bug for the most part Thursday and combined for 220 points the last time they played in late January. The total may be a bit overstated here, however, as the Thunder has allowed a modest 109.2 points per home game, while the Kings have scored just 108.4 per road tilt. Sacramento is also surrendering a respectable 110.7 points per road contest.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 220.5 points)
The subdued total here is due to LeBron James' absence because of a groin injury. Los Angeles is still a heavy favorite, but their offensive firepower will naturally be lessened. The Warriors do come in allowing 114.7 points per home game, however, and the Lakers have averaged 114.5 points in the two games James has missed thus far this season. L.A. is also averaging 114.9 points per road contest.
Positional Breakdown
Point guard will see both Ben Simmons (back) and Damian Lillard (groin) sit out again Thursday, leaving De'Aaron Fox ($7.5K) as the most expensive option. The good news is the rest of the position is in good health and offers viable options into the $4K range.
Shooting guard may have the best health of any spot Thursday and features C.J. McCollum ($8.8K), who has performed well without Lillard available, up top. There are also nice price drop-offs between him and second-most expensive option Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7.2K), as well as between Alexander and third-priciest selection Buddy Hield ($5.9K), with both players very capable of outperforming their current salaries.
Small forward will be missing LeBron James (groin) up top, leaving Andrew Wiggins ($7.4K) as the most expensive selection. However, one of the best values of the night might be right below him in the form of Tobias Harris ($7K), who could be playing without Joel Embiid (shoulder) in addition to Ben Simmons (back).
Power forward should be in good shape when it's all said and done, as both Anthony Davis (elbow) and Draymond Green (pelvis), the biggest names with injury designations, are fully expected to play. Davis should particularly be extremely popular with James out of action. As mentioned earlier, Domantas Sabonis ($8.4K) may also offer a very good return on salary due to matchup.
Finally, center could see Embiid sit out, which would leave Hassan Whiteside ($9.5K) as a very popular option for those paying up. For a small slate, the position has decent depth even if Embiid misses, considering the likes of Steven Adams, Marquese Chriss, Myles Turner, Mitchell Robinson and Dwight Howard are also in action.
Notable Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
LeBron James, LAL
James will miss Thursday's game due to a sore groin. Anthony Davis, who's probable due to an elbow injury, will see his usage rise exponentially, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is likely to draw the start small forward.
Anthony Davis, LAL
Davis is probable with an elbow injury and should see even more usage than usual with LeBron James (groin) ruled out.
Joel Embiid, PHI
Embiid is considered questionable as of late Thursday morning with a shoulder injury he suffered in Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers. The big man was headed for an MRI at some point Thursday that will reveal the extent of the issue. If Embiid misses, the usage of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson, Glenn Robinson and Shake Milton should rise considerably with Ben Simmons (back) also out, while Al Horford will likely draw a spot start at center.
Damian Lillard, POR
Lillard will remain out with a groin injury. Gary Trent, Jr. and Anfernee Simons should be the primary beneficiaries of his absence once again, while the usage of CJ McCollum, Trevor Ariza, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside will remain elevated.
Draymond Green, GSW
Green is probable to play with the pelvic injury that's cost him the last two games.
Victor Oladipo, IND
Oladipo will be listed as questionable due to a back injury that's already cost him two games.
Edmond Sumner, IND
Sumner is questionable due to a hip injury.
Frank Ntilikina, NYK
Ntilikina will likely be listed as questionable at best due to a groin injury.
Kadeem Allen, NYK
Allen will likely remain out due to a concussion.
Notable Longer-Term Injuries/Absences: Stephen Curry, GSW; Klay Thompson, GSW; Ben Simmons, PHI; Richaun Holmes, SAC; Marvin Bagley, SAC; Darius Bazley, OKC; Andre Roberson, OKC; Jusuf Nurkic, POR; Zach Collins, POR
Elite Players
The elite tier on Thursday's small slate is an injury-ravaged wasteland, with LeBron James (groin), Ben Simmons (back) and Damian Lillard (groin) both out, and Joel Embiid (shoulder) very much in danger of joining them. That leaves Anthony Davis (PROB-Elbow) and Hassan Whiteside as the potential top two most expensive options at salaries of $10.8K and $9.5K, respectively. Whiteside could particularly be both very valuable and popular, considering the possibility Embiid sits and the fact Whiteside is currently enjoying increased usage in Lillard's absence.
One other player who falls just a bit below elite pricing at $8.4K is Domantas Sabonis, who could be a particularly rewarding play in a very favorable matchup against the Trail Blazers.
Expected Chalk
The combination of a small slate and big-name absences should make it an extremely chalky night. Needless to say, the healthy starters on the 76ers and Trail Blazers should see high ownership, as will the Lakers' Anthony Davis in particular with LeBron James (groin) out of action. A number of other productive starters across the salary scale should also be popular due to an overall lack of options on a four-game slate.
As customary, I've also put together a specific list of sub-$6K value plays that should find themselves in plenty of lineups – some due to injury situations on their respective teams -- and have included those below the next section.
Key and Likely Underowned Values
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL at GSW ($3,900)
KCP continues to roll along in a steady role off the bench, but he could draw a spot start at small forward Thursday with LeBron James (groin) out of action. Caldwell-Pope continues to have his occasional clunkers, but he's scored over 20 FanDuel points in three of his past five games, offering a glimpse at the upside he brings at his modest salary. The veteran is encouragingly boasting career-best efficiency this season, shooting 47.0 percent overall, including 40.7 percent from distance. Then, consider KCP is sporting a 21.8 percent usage rate and averaging 1.17 FanDuel points per minute with James off the floor this season, and Golden State comes in ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency rating (22.5) allowed to threes.
JaVale McGee, LAL at GSW ($3,600)
McGee has done nothing to warrant high ownership recently, as he's scored under 20 FanDuel points in seven straight games. That downturn has been accompanied by a corresponding plummet in salary, and given his recent body of work and minutes in the teens in those recent games, I wouldn't recommend McGee as anything other than a large-field tournament play Thursday. However, on a night when it will be difficult to differentiate and with the center position potentially depleted, he could make for a very low-owned pivot. The big man is actually averaging a solid 1.05 FanDuel points per minute with LeBron James (groin) off the floor this season, and he'll face a Warriors team that he lit up for a season-high 57.4 FanDuel points over 28 minutes back on Nov. 13. Golden State also comes in with a Western-Conference low 48.0 percent rebounding rate and is tied with the Nets for second-most rebounds allowed to centers specifically. Moreover, the Warriors are ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency rating (58.7) and points per game (49.0) allowed in the paint, an area of the floor where 83.9 percent of McGee's scoring has emanated from this season.
Other likely higher-owned value plays to consider: Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,900); Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,900); Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($5,900); Danilo Gallinari, OKC ($5,700); T.J. Warren, IND ($5,600); Dennis Schroder, OKC ($5,500); Mitchell Robinson, NYK ($5,400); Josh Richardson, PHI ($5,200); Harrison Barnes, SAC ($5,100); Trevor Ariza, POR ($4,800); Al Horford, PHI ($4,800); Shake Milton, PHI ($4,300); Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,100); Dwight Howard, LAL ($4,100)
