This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
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br>TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
With only four teams in action, it is pretty difficult to avoid any team entirely. But of the two games, it is the Spurs at the Rockets that has the makings of a low-scoring defensive slug-fest. The Rockets are second in the league in opponent points per game, and third in opponent field goal percentage. The Spurs are tenth and ninth, respectively. The Rockets hold opponents to the second fewest assists per game in the league, where the Spurs rank seventh. Both teams are in the slower half of the league in pace. Offensively, the Rockets are off to a red-hot start this season, but four of their five opponents appear lottery-bound. The Spurs lag behind the Rockets statistically, but all three of their opponents are possible playoff teams. There are some good discounts available on both rosters, but your own lineup should probably feature more players from the other game.
Offenses to Use
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers share in the company of Spurs and the Rockets as one of the top defensive teams so far. The Mavericks, however, do not. The Mavericks are allowing the fourth most points per game, and the tenth highest opponent field goal percentage. Perhaps most importantly, against a Blazers squad that attempts the third most three pointers in the league, the Mavericks are allowing the third highest opponent three-point field goal percentage. Though it's too early to know for sure, both teams appear to have faced an even split of strong and struggling teams, lending a credibility to their season-to-date statistics that not all teams share.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Dallas Mavericks
Second game of a back-to-back: San Antonio Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Damian Lillard, POR (vs DAL), PG ($8,000): Lillard is probably overpriced. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, so let me explain my reasoning. With so few choices available Thursday, the strategy shifts from "get the best possible value for the salary" to "get as many points as possible". Since rosters are still limited by the salary cap, getting high value from cheaper players is still critical. But for the high-end players, it's less about maximizing p/K (points per $1,000 spent) and more about just maximizing points. As the Trail Blazers starting point guard and the NBA's third-leading three-point shooter from 2013-14, Lillard is the player best poised to capitalize off of the failures of the Mavericks' defense described above.
Devin Harris, DAL (at POR), PG ($5,200): Harris has been a steady producer so far in this young season. He is seeing minutes in the high 20s, scoring in the low to mid teens, and adding a few assists and steals along the way. Harris is not a player who is likely to net you a points profit - this is the most Harris has cost all season, and the Trail Blazers have an above average defensive backcourt. But on such a shallow night there are very few obviously great options. Successful rosters need some players who can be relied upon to do just enough to keep you competitive, while costing little enough that you can afford the players you really want. As long as Harris doesn't have his worst game of the season Thursday, he will meet those two qualifications.
Other suggestions: Not enough options for me to feel confident recommending anyone else.
Shooting Guard
Danny Green, SA (at HOU), SG ($4,000): My first step in writing the Daily Games Cheat Sheet is to identify the players who cost less than their recent average. There are very few such players available tonight, and for most of them the decline is because they were overpriced in the first place. Green's depressed cost, however, is the result of the "sweet spot off night": he registered a bad night during the window of games DraftKings relies upon the most for determining a player's cost, but has since returned to his previous level of production. Two games ago, Green scored just 11.5 fantasy points in only 22 minutes of action. In the games before and after, he exceeded 21 fantasy points and 33 minutes. The middle game was apparently an experiment where Austin Daye started, but the result was struggling offense a loss to the Suns. The following night, Daye played only three minutes, and Green returned to his normal usage.
James Harden, HOU (vs SA), SG ($11,200): The strategy behind Harden is exactly the one described in the Damian Lillard section. There are only 11 players available who cost more than the $6,250 allotted per roster spot, so it won't be too difficult finding players cheap enough to make room for Harden. Of the players available, Harden is averaging the most fantasy points per night by far – Tim Duncan is in second place, and trails by nearly 10 points per game.
Other suggestions: Not enough options for me to feel confident recommending anyone else.
Small Forward
Kostas Papanikolaou, HOU (vs SA), SF ($4,300): Am I allowed to make conditional recommendations? Terrance Jones' status for Thursday is not yet announced. If Jones plays, then I'm not interested in Papanikolaou at all. But if Jones sits for his second game in a row, then count me in. Papanikolaou has been a solid all-around contributor, producing rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, while getting most of his points off threes. Some of those categories are too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable using Papanikolaou if he is playing limited bench minutes, but I trust him to earn his keep if he plays 25 minutes or more. Assuming Jones sits, Donatas Motiejunas may get one more chance as the nominal "starter", but Papanikolaou has seen more court time in four of five games – a trend I expect to continue on Thursday regardless of Jones' status.
I'm putting Papanikolaou in my roster at the F position. If Jones is active, then I'll swap in Brandan Wright (DAL, PF, $4,200). Wright is in the later game and is a similar cost, which makes such a plan possible. Wright doesn't excite me, but he has seen a consistent 18-20 minutes per game, and a lot of his fantasy value comes from scoring and rebounding, which I consider the more predictable and reliable categories. If you have enough unused salary available, I'd recommend springing for Boris Diaw (SA, PF, $4,700) instead.
Other suggestions: Trevor Ariza, HOU (vs SA), SF, ($7,500); Nicolas Batum, POR (vs DAL), SF, ($6,500)
Power Forward
Tim Duncan, SA (at HOU), PF ($7,700): Not only is Duncan second among available players in fantasy points per game, but his points per game and his salary hit are reasonably in line with one another. The likely matchup against Dwight Howard is legitimate cause for concern, but there are very few decent power forward options available. Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge both appear significantly overpriced. After Duncan, Nowitzki, and Aldridge, there are only three available options above the minimum.
Other suggestions: Not enough options for me to feel confident recommending anyone else. As Mentioned above, Brandan Wright and Boris Diaw are not terrible options, but I don't "recommend" either.
Center
Robin Lopez, POR (vs DAL), C ($5,800): Tonight, only 18 players have salaries below their season-to-date averages. Among them, Lopez has the fourth highest salary, but the second highest average fantasy points per night. If Lopez can maintain his 29.1 fantasy points per night, he would earn just over 5.0 p/K, which is much higher than is usually needed on a night with so few games. The matchup against Tyson Chandler is intimidating at first glance, but reassure yourself that Chandler will probably also spend time covering LaMarcus Aldridge, among other defensive help responsibilities.
Other suggestions: Tyson Chandler, DAL (at POR), C, ($5,700)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Raymond Felton (suspension)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Game-Time Decision
Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) is expected to be active for Thursday's game, but should be considered a game-time decision until an official announcement is made.
Terrence Jones (leg) is out for Thursday's game.
Tarick Black (thigh) is expected to play in Thursday's game.
Joel Freeland (foot) is considered probable for Thursday's game.
Marco Belinelli (groin) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game after leaving Wednesday's game with an injury.
Tiago Splitter (calf) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game, but early indications are that it is unlikely that he would play.
