This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets are coming off a double-overtime loss to the Wizards (a game they dearly needed to stay in the playoff hunt), while the Hawks firmly handled the Heat by 13 points, limiting them to just 86. A tired, dejected Hornets team facing their Southeast division rival who has a very good defense and is coming into the game with confidence seems a tough ask.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz: The Jazz are the slowest-tempo team in the NBA, and have held the Thunder under 100 points in the three games already this season. The last time the Jazz hosted the Thunder, they held them to just 81. Expecting a defensive shutdown like that to be repeated would be asking a lot, but anything under 100 puts OKC well below their typical average.
Offenses to Use
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers: The Friday night game between the Trail Blazers and the Suns makes no sense on any planet, as the total score was 168. The Trail Blazers are not a slow team, and are very offensively efficient. In fact, the total score for the first three games between these two teams ranges from 108 to a freaky 143. The game has the highest over/under on the night, and it could very well go over that if the previous results between these teams hold true.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Oklahoma City Thunder
Second game of a back-to-back: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers
Point Guard
Dennis Schroder, ATL at CHA ($4,600): I'm not to thrilled with any of the studs at the point guard position Saturday, and will use it as a value stasher for the big bucks to be spent elsewhere. Schroder is the ideal candidate for this role getting a full dosage of minutes with Jeff Teague out, and he proved his value even in a relatively low-scoring game last night against the Heat.
Other suggestions: Aaron Brooks, CHI vs NYK ($5,800)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs NYK ($8,000): Butler is the top priced shooting guard, and rightfully so. In the current dynamic of the Bulls, and his current situation working back from injury, his upside is tremendous. The Knicks have no answer for Butler, and if he can reach the 20 shots he took against Charlotte two games ago, he has the potential to put up a vey healthy number. Butler is the only choice that also provides much in the way of security, as every other option has some sort of 'but.'
Other suggestions: Arron Afflalo, POR vs DEN ($4,200)
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs OKC ($7,600): Hayward is the most expensive (non-injured) player at the position. The matchup with OKC is pretty good, as it should speed up the regularly slow Jazz. Hayward seems to have his health back, and there is little doubt in his talent to score, and if he can hit his threes, he could reach his way into very high fantasy numbers. However, there are some potential value plays at the position created from injury/rest scenarios that are worth watching.
Other suggestions: Wilson Chandler, DEN at POR ($5,700); Harrison Barnes, GS at MIL ($4,600); Nicolas Batum, POR vs DEN ($6,500)
Power Forward
LaMarcus Aldridge, POR vs DEN ($8,700): Aldridge has been in beast mode lately, and he should absolutely eat up the undersized Nuggets. He's averaging 48.9 FPPG against the Nuggets this season, and that could very well be on the low end of what he has the potential to do Saturday night. Aldridge has a good chance to be the highest fantasy point scorer of the night. This is the best position to key on, and using the three maximum is not a bad decision.
Other suggestions: David Lee, GS at MIL ($3,500) ; Mitch McGary, OKC at UTA ($4,500); Pau Gasol, CHI vs NY ($8,400); Paul Millsap, ATL at CHA ($7,300)
Center
Andrew Bogut, GS at MIL ($4,600): With no Draymond Green, Bogut should see extended minutes trying to defend the hot Zaza Pachulia. Bogut's defensive prowess shouldn't be undermined and his rebounding ability has really seen a serious uptick. He is a great value play, and is as good of an option as you'll probably get at center (though his opposition down low makes a good bit of sense too).
Other suggestions: Zaza Pachulia, MIL vs GS ($5,800); Robin Lopez, POR vs DEN ($4,400)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Jeff Teague (ankle)
Mike Scott (toe)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (ankle)
Cody Zeller (shoulder)
Jose Calderon (achilles)
Alexey Shved (ribs)
Tim Hardaway (wrist)
Derrick Rose (knee)
Doug McDermott (back)
Draymond Green (rest)
Nick Collison (ankle)
Kevin Durant (foot)
Serge Ibaka (knee)
Andre Roberson (ankle)
Rodney Hood (illness)
Darrell Arthur (calf)
Game-Time Decision
Pero Antic (neck)
Travis Wear (back)
Cameron Bairstow (illness)
Andre Iguodala (rest)
Derrick Favors (back)
Chris Kaman (shoulder)
