Category Strategy: Profiting From Trades

One of the busiest trade deadlines in recent memory has already sent big-time players flying around the league. Loads of possible waiver wire players will see big shifts in their roles and values. Leagues will be won and lost based on which teams correctly identify the deadline's winners and losers.

To recap, the deals so far are, in order of completion:

Bubble Backup Bigs Swap: The Bucks received Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes. The Hornets received Miles Plumlee. The Bucks released Steve Novak to accommodate the move.

Nurkic to Blazers: The Nuggets received Mason Plumlee and a second-round pick. The Trail Blazers received Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Ibaka to the Raptors: The Magic received Terrence Ross and a first-round pick. The Raptors received Serge Ibaka.

Cousins to the Pelicans: The Kings received Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, a first-round pick and a second-round pick. The Pelicans received DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi. The Kings released Matt Barnes to accommodate the move.

Williams to Rockets: The Lakers acquired Corey Brewer and a first-round pick. Rockets acquired Lou Williams.

Four teams have three games this week, while all the rest have two. The four are: the Clippers, Hornets, Nuggets, and Pelicans. Players on those teams get a significant boost in most formats, since they play 50 percent more games than everyone else. It may sound silly, but the difference between two and three is much bigger than the difference between three and four.

Points

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets
(Ownership: ESPN – 26%; Yahoo – 38%; CBS – 77%)

Kaminsky has already emerged as the big winner of the "bubble backup bigs swap" – a name everyone should be using to describe the trade of three backup big men between two teams on the playoff bubble. Before the trade, Kaminsky was routinely playing between 20 and 25 minutes per night. Since the trade, Kaminsky has played at least 30 minutes in five of six games. The one game below 30 minutes was the one night Cody Zeller (quadriceps) played. Zeller's eventual return will hurt Kaminsky's value, but Kaminsky's value will still be higher that it was when Zeller was healthy, pre-trade. And Zeller has struggled to stay healthy this season, already sitting out five different stretches of games for a total of 17 missed games. Kaminsky is averaging 32.7 minutes, 15.8 points, and 2.0 threes per game since the trade.

Other suggestions: Tim Hardaway Jr, Hawks; Dario Saric, 76ers; Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets

Three-Pointers

Terrence Ross, Raptors
(Ownership: ESPN – 11%; Yahoo – 24%; CBS – 32%)

Terrence Ross is a three-point specialist averaging 1.8 threes in 22.4 minutes per game this season. There is no question that he can help a team in need of triples. Two questions remain, though, after being traded to the Magic: 1. Will Ross see an increase in minutes? 2. Can Ross provide enough value outside of threes to be worth a roster spot? I'm projecting yes to the first, and a big TBD to the second. Aaron Gordon was playing a lot of small forward before Ibaka's departure, but Gordon is a more natural fit at the four. Logic presumes that he'll shift over to power forward, opening a giant whole at the three for Ross. After threes, Ross is most likely to help in rebounds, steals, and points. He may need a lot more minutes to contribute meaningfully in those areas, however.

The departure of Louis Williams from the Lakers should open up extra playing time for Nick Young, who I recently argued should already be owned. Young is averaging 2.9 threes in 26.5 minutes per game this season.

Other suggestions: Frank Kaminsky, Hornets; Nick Young, Lakers; Gary Harris, Nuggets; Jamal Crawford, Clippers; Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets

Rebounds

Kosta Koufos, Kings
(Ownership: ESPN – 4%; Yahoo – 6%; CBS – 14%)

Alright, so I don't actually think Koufos is all that good, nor is he "the big man to add" following the Cousins' trade. That title belongs to Willie Cauley-Stein, but lots of internet ink has already been spilled in his honor. Despite starting at center, Koufos has averaged only 19.1 minutes this season. Part of the reason that is so low is because Cousins spent so much time at center. With Cousins gone, Koufos might see his minutes creep up into the mid-20s on most nights. He's currently averaging 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, so that increase could yield some fantasy value, especially in deeper leagues.

Other suggestions: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers; Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers

Assists

Tyreke Evans, Kings
(Ownership: ESPN – 36%; Yahoo – 57%; CBS – 87%)

Evans is unlikely to fill any of the 34.4 minutes that DeMarcus Cousins accounted for, but he should see a good portion of the 25.3 minutes vacated by Matt Barnes. Cousins' usage rate this season was 37.5 percent, and none of the bigs stepping into his role are capable of carrying such a heavy load. Much of the extra usage will probably fall to Darren Collison and Evans, increasing both of their values. Collison may end up with more fantasy value, but he is not available enough to qualify for this article. Evans has averaged a usage rate above 22 percent every season he has been in the league, higher than all but one season from Collision. Evans has also averaged at least 3.5 assists per game in each of his seven-plus seasons and has averaged at least 5.0 per game five times. Lastly, though Evans totals are somewhat down this season, he's having one of the best per-36 seasons of his career, including 6.9 assists per game. The bottom line is, without Cousins, the Kings are going to need someone to playmake, and that responsibility could fall squarely on Evans' shoulders.

Other suggestions: Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks; Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets

Steals

Gary Harris, Nuggets
(Ownership: ESPN – 35%; Yahoo – 70%; CBS – 63%)

Of the players impacted by trades, Evans is probably the add most likely to help in steals. But I already wrote about him for assists, where he is more helpful.

Harris has a steal in 12 straight games and in 25 of his 32 games this season. He is averaging 31.3 minutes and 14.8 points per game during that span. Fellow Nuggets wing Will Barton is a fixture in the current trade rumor mill, and if he is moved, that would only further enhance Harris' value.

Other suggestions: Joe Ingles, Jazz; Marvin Williams, Hornets

Blocks

Jusuf Nurkic
(Ownership: ESPN – 43%; Yahoo – 63%; CBS – 79%)

Of all the players impacted by trades so far, Nurkic is my pick to be the biggest winner. I focused on Nurkic here last week, but it bears repeating. Nurkic generated lots of excitement as a rookie in 2014-15, blocking 1.8 shots in 21.9 minutes during his best month, and averaging 1.1 blocks in 17.8 minutes for the season. Injuries cost him most of his sophomore season, and Nikola Jokic's rise undercut the enthusiasm for Nurkic. In that setting, the player with a reputation for having a bad attitude soured, and his performance suffered. The Trail Blazers are offering him a fresh start, and – though some may dispute this – I think he's by far the most talented big, and the most natural center on this roster. If things break right, Nurkic has a legitimate shot at being a top-80 fantasy producer (along the lines of Steven Adams) for the remainder of the season.

Cauley-Stein is not a great shot-blocker, but he's a good one, and he is probably the biggest beneficiary of the DeMarcus Cousins trade.

Other suggestions: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks; Bismack Biyombo, Magic