Category Strategy: Week 16

Derrick Rose (ankle) returned to action Monday, dealing a major blow to the value of Brandon Jennings, who was a popular pickup in Rose's absence. But don't be too quick to cast Jennings to the side – the trade deadline is only two weeks away (February 23rd at 3 PM EST), and the Knicks feature heavily in the pre-deadline rumor mill. There are a lot of scenarios where Jennings' value increases following a deal. If you're team is in a position to hold on, it might be worth it.

The Trail Blazers are the only team with just two games this week, but they still have a pretty good schedule for many formats. Playing Tuesday at the Mavericks and Thursday versus the Celtics, managers with daily lineups will have no difficulty starting Blazers both days against relatively favorable opponents. The rest of the league is evenly split, with 15 teams playing four times, and 14 team playing three times.

Tuesday had only three games: Nets at Hornets, Trail Blazers at Mavericks, and Magic at Rockets. In a lot of formats, that created extra opportunity to use member from those teams. With 12 games Wednesday, managers may find themselves forced to leave some games on their bench, a problem no one should have Tuesday.

Points

Tim Hardaway Jr, Hawks
(Ownership: ESPN – 19%; Yahoo – 45%; CBS – 62%)

When looking at recent Hawks and Knicks box scores, remember that numbers are still somewhat inflated by the epic quadruple OT game from January 29. Hardaway scored 19 that night, but he has done even better since, averaging 19.5 over his last four, which all ended in regulation. Hardaway's value is higher when Thabo Sefolosha (groin) is out, as he has been for the past five games. Hardaway's strong play may have earned him a larger role in the rotation even after Sefolosha returns, but managers should pay extra attention to those first few games when he eventually comes back.

Other suggestions: Yogi Ferrell, Mavericks; Jamal Crawford, Clippers

Three-Pointers

Nick Young
(Ownership: ESPN – 33%; Yahoo – 54%; CBS – 53%)

I'm going to keep including Nick Young in these articles any time his ownership is below 50%. I get that his lack of consistency can be frustrating, but he is, mathematically, a top 80 player in 9-cat this season (he falls just outside top 100 in 8-cat). Though there will be mornings where you look back regretfully, playing him every night will get more production that most replacement strategies. A top-80 player is an every-night starter in every format except 8-team leagues with restrictive games max settings. Young averages 2.9 threes per game this season, and 3.3 over the last three weeks.

Kyle Korver is not the every-category contributor he once was, but he seems to have settled into his role in the Cavaliers' offense. He has at least one three in each of his last 12 games and is shooting 46.4 percent from behind the arc during that stretch. In that span, he has four games with four threes and three games with three threes. He's pretty much a pure specialist, but he's a really good one.

Other suggestions: Marvin Williams, Hornets; Jamal Crawford, Clippers; Kyle Korver, Cavaliers; Channing Frye, Cavaliers

Rebounds

Matt Barnes, Kings
(Ownership: ESPN – 8%; Yahoo – 19%; CBS – 24%)

With Garrett Temple (hamstring) and Rudy Gay (Achilles) out, Barnes has seen a boost in his workload. Gay is out for the season, and Temple should miss at least one more week, if not more. In the three games since Temple went down, Barnes is averaging 12.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. Barnes is a multi-category producer who is perennially underrated due to his low scoring. This is an unusually strong rebounding pace for him, but his biggest fantasy impact is typically in rebounds, so it is not completely out of character.

Tarik Black is tough to trust, in part because his good games don't always align with the games where he gets the most minutes – for example, two weeks ago he grabbed six rebounds in eight minutes, and followed that up with only two rebounds in 30 minutes the very next game. That's why he is only worth considering in deep leagues, despite averaging 8.8 rebounds in his last four games.

Other suggestions: Marvin Williams, Hornets; P.J. Tucker, Suns; Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers
Deep leagues only: Tarik Black, Lakers

Assists

Kris Dunn, Timberwolves
(Ownership: ESPN – 14%; Yahoo – 28%; CBS – 42%)

Zach LaVine (knee) is out for the season, which creates a ton of fantasy opportunity for previously irrelevant Timberwolves players – LaVine was averaging 37.2 minutes per game this season. Tyus Jones has been one of the biggest beneficiaries, dishing out 7.5 assists across 27.5 minutes over the last two games. But those came with Kris Dunn (hand) sidelined, and Dunn has played twice as many minutes as Jones this season. Jones is worth a fantasy start, especially for assist-needy managers, until Dunn returns. Once Dunn is back, he becomes the hotter commodity. Brandon Rush has also seen a big boost in minutes, but he has not yet translated that into fantasy value.

I opened the article talking about how Derrick Rose's return hurts Jennings, but I'm keeping Jennings in here because of how good his Rose-free work was. Even with Rose back, Jennings might be a reasonable option.

Other suggestions: Yogi Ferrell, Mavericks; Tyus Jones, Timberwolves; Brandon Jennings, Knicks; Marcus Smart, Celtics

Steals

Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
(Ownership: ESPN – 33%; Yahoo – 34%; CBS – 70%)

I thought we were done talking about Brogdon this year, but he is back on the wire in the majority of leagues – he shouldn't be. He endured a seven-game shooting slump, during which his field goal percentage fell to 32.3 percent, and thus his scoring fell to 8.3 points per game. Chalk it up to typical ups-and-downs of a rookie season. He shot 45.7 percent as a primary scorer during his senior season at Virginia, he shot 50.7 percent in the month before the slump, and he's gone 52.2 percent over his past three games. All that is a reason for owning Brogdon, but this section is supposed to focus on steals. He has eight steals over the past three games, and has at least one steal in 12 of the last 15 games. He averages 1.6 steals per 36 minutes, and is averaging 29.3 minutes per game over the last month.

Other suggestions: Kris Dunn, Timberwolves; Robert Covington, 76ers; Tony Allen, Grizzlies; Gary Harris, Nuggets

Blocks

Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks
(Ownership: ESPN – 4%; Yahoo – 7%; CBS – 15%)

Blocks remain the scarcest commodity on the waiver wire. John Henson continues to tease us, flashing his shot-blocking brilliance without ever garnering a reliable workload above 25 minutes per game. JaVale McGee is an accomplished shot-blocker with an increasing role, but the talented and deep Warriors roster makes it unlikely he'll ever eclipse 20 minutes. Lucas Nogueira continues to be the option I endorse most heartily, but his scoring totals make Tyson Chandler look like an offensive mastermind.

Kyle O'Quinn edges out this depressing field because of the approaching trade deadline. He and Willy Hernangomez have cannibalized each other's values this season. Though neither feature heavily in trade deadline rumors, the Knicks as a whole do, and both are moveable. If the Knicks front line opens up a little, O'Quinn would be a significant beneficiary.

Other suggestions: John Henson, Bucks; JaVale McGee, Warriors; Lucas Nogueira, Raptors