2022-23 NBA Outlooks: Who are the Top Forwards?

As the 2022-23 NBA season quickly approaches, it's time for fantasy managers to begin digging in on preparation. Part of that process is breaking down the player pool by position and identifying targets, fades and late-round values who could end up paying major dividends over the course of an 82-game schedule.

Below, we've identified the top 20-to-25 targets at each position in eight-category, roto leagues for the 2022-23 fantasy basketball season. Keep in mind that these rankings are subject to change before we get to Opening Night, but they're based on RotoWire's 2022-23 roto league projections. To avoid confusion, we've opted to include each player in only one position group, even if they're eligible at multiple spots on different sites.

SMALL FORWARDS

Small forward is one of the more top-heavy positions in the NBA. Jayson Tatum, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are clearly in Tier 1. Kawhi Leonard, from a talent perspective, is with that trio, but his injury woes push him down into a second-round selection. After that, there's a handful of guys vying for All-Star spots.

One standout among that group is the reigning Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes. The Florida State product hit the ground running and was a starting-caliber fantasy player from Day 1. Even with mild improvement – particularly as a three-point shooter – Barnes should easily push for a top-35 finish. The only thing holding him back may be the considerable talent around him on the Raptors' roster, headlined by Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby.

However, the position quickly devolves into role players – most of whom are three-and-D options. Think Mikal Bridges, Herbert Jones or Anunoby. You need guys like that on your roster, but make sure not to overpay for players who don't have secure roles.

Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Tatum is one of the safest bets in fantasy. He'll continue being the No. 1 option for a team that went to the NBA Finals last year, and he's just now entering his prime. Draft him with confidence in the late first round.

LeBron James, Lakers

James is coming off his best fantasy season – fourth in per-game production – since his final year in Miami. However, his absences are becoming an issue. He's averaging just 55.8 appearances per year since joining the Lakers. Regardless, James is still draftable at the end of the first round.

Kevin Durant, Nets

Durant, without question, is one of the best fantasy players available when healthy. He hasn't ranked lower than eighth in per-game value since his rookie year. However, he's appeared in just 90 games in two years since recovering from a torn Achilles. His now-rescinded trade requested also cloudies his situation. How committed is he to play big minutes and through light injury?

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers

Leonard didn't play last year as he recovered from a torn ACL. He's an established risk. He's dealt with persistent knee issues for years, and he's a candidate to sit out back-to-backs. The two-time Finals MVP produces first-round value when available, but getting more than 60 games out of him should be considered a victory.

Scottie Barnes, Raptors

The reigning Rookie of the Year, Barnes showed off a diverse skillset in the egalitarian Raptors offense. While his three-ball is a work in progress, he ranked 70th in per-game value behind 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 combined steals-plus-blocks. He'll improve, but he's still fighting for touches with Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.

Jimmy Butler, Heat

Butler has upside for first-round value when healthy, but persistent missed games are a theme of his career. He's played more than 59 games once in the past five seasons, resulting in him topping out at 20th in total fantasy value (two seasons ago). Optimistic fantasy managers can take him in the late second round, but the safer bet is to try to snag him in the third.

Khris Middleton, Bucks

Middleton has been a model of consistency for the Bucks, ranking between 33-35 in per-game fantasy value in each of the past three years. Nothing is expected to change this season, and the Bucks are one of the safest teams to target in fantasy.

DeMar DeRozan, Bulls

DeRozan is coming off a shocking career year for a beat-up Chicago squad. Is it sustainable? Maybe, but you shouldn't pay up with that assumption. Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic are all starting the year healthy.

Brandon Ingram, Pelicans

Ingram regressed as a shooter last year, which hurt his fantasy value. Maybe he can recover, but the addition of Zion Williamson back into the picture, plus a full season of CJ McCollum means Ingram's usage is muddied more than ever. He's still going to be a focal point of the offense, but they'll need him less than ever.

Jerami Grant, Trail Blazers

After two seasons leading the Pistons in scoring, Grant will slip back into a smaller role with the Blazers, where he'll be competing with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic for touches. He still has top-100 upside, but expectations need to be adjusted.

Mikal Bridges, Suns

Bridges is one of the better three-and-D options in the NBA, but it hasn't translated to great fantasy production. He's still behind Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton in the offensive pecking order. Bridges has a high floor, but it seems unlikely he's going to start taking touches away from that trio.

OG Anunoby, Raptors

Despite increased usage compared to 2020-21, Anunoby regressed last season as a fantasy asset due to a decrease in all three of his shooting percentages, with the forward slashing 44/36/75. Still, he's a core part of the team and is young enough to keep improving, so fantasy managers shouldn't feel a need to shy away this year.

Andrew Wiggins, Warriors

Wiggins took a step back in fantasy last season, but much of that was due to his career-worst free-throw percentage (63.4%). Still, he has a relatively high floor as an established part of the Warriors' offense, and he's a safe option around pick 100 in most drafts.

Miles Bridges, Free Agent

Until Bridges' legal situation is resolved, his fantasy value is completely unknown.

Franz Wagner, Magic

The No. 8 overall pick last season was more NBA-ready than most expected and his 79 games played allowed him to rank 59th in total fantasy value. He should get better this season, but his usage rate could actually decrease with Markelle Fultz back and Paolo Banchero in the fold.

Josh Hart, Trail Blazers

Coming off a career year, though it was fueled by injuries to teammates in New Orleans and a tanking situation in Portland. The Trail Blazers are relatively thin, so he could still play 30-plus minutes, but he probably won't be asked to do as much as last season.

Jae'Sean Tate, Rockets

A role piece in Houston's rebuild, Tate should maintain at least sixth-man minutes, but his ceiling is low with Jabari Smith ahead of him on the depth chart. Tate will also be competing for time with Eric Gordon – a strong candidate to be traded at some point – Kenyon Martin, Usman Garuba and rookie Tari Eason.

Herbert Jones, Pelicans

Jones, a rookie last season, rounded into form from December on, averaging 10.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.5 combined steals-plus-blocks in 31.2 minutes. His three-point shooting needs work (34.2% on 2.6 attempts in his last 58 appearances), but he should maintain a sizeable role in a Pelicans' rotation that needs defense. However, his upside is low given the wealth of other offensive options.

Will Barton, Wizards

After a little over seven years in Denver, Barton has moved on to Washington. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should see upper-20s to low-30s minutes as an option to relieve Bradley Beal of some playmaking responsibilities. He's an option as a late-round flier in standard leagues, but he's better suited for deeper formats where his low ceiling isn't an issue.

Saddiq Bey, Pistons

Bey had a mixed 2021-22 season due to inconsistent three-point shooting, but he still managed to rank 108th in per-game fantasy value. With Jerami Grant out of the picture, there's upside for Bey to rank higher, especially if he can improve his efficiency while taking on more responsibilities.

Gordon Hayward, Hornets

Hayward's consistent injury issues make him a tough target in fantasy leagues, but he has clear upside if Miles Bridges misses much or all of this season. At some point late in drafts, Hayward is worth the gamble, but he hasn't ranked higher than 97th in total fantasy value in the past five years.

Gary Trent, Raptors

Casual NBA fans probably have never even heard of Trent, but he was the 60th-best fantasy player on a per-game basis last year. He's a great three-and-D option – 3.0 threes and 1.7 steals – for a team that needs his production. His role shouldn't change this year.

Dillon Brooks, Grizzlies

Injuries hampered much of Brooks' 2021-22 season – he appeared in 32 games – but he still averaged a solid 18.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.1 steals. He's more of a defender than thrives on volume shooting rather than efficiency, but his opportunities shouldn't go away with Jaren Jackson set to potentially miss half the year.

Harrison Barnes, Kings

Barnes is a relatively high-floor option in Sacramento's offense. Over the past three seasons with the team, he's averaged 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. It's possible Domantas Sabonis and rookie Keegan Murray take some of his touches, making Barnes more of a deep-league option.

POWER FORWARDS

Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a tier of his own for power forwards, followed by Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis as the other two with first-round upside. After Pascal Siakam – a clear third-round target – things start to get speculative quickly.

Evan Mobley seems like a relatively safe bet, but he's in a less-than-ideal situation next to Jarrett Allen. After him, you have to start thinking about injury-prone options in Kristaps Porzingis and Zion Williamson, quickly followed by a seemingly-unhappy Julius Randle and a rookie in Paolo Banchero. Michael Porter and his fragile back is also in this group, and Jaren Jackson may be out until January. Draft with caution at this position.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

The two-time MVP has yet to truly fix his free-throw shooting (72.2% last year), which is what's stopping him from truly competing as the best player in fantasy, but there aren't many safer bets in the first round. Nothing is expected to change this season.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves

Towns' shift to power forward makes his statline tough to project, but a higher diet of threes at the cost of rebounds and blocks seems likely. Still, his efficiency – 24.3 PPG on 52/40/83 – is elite for his position, and he's never ranked worse than 18th in per-game fantasy value.

Anthony Davis, Lakers

Davis was the No. 2 fantasy player in per-game value just three seasons ago, but injuries may be taking their toll on him. The big man has played more than 68 games just twice in his career, and he's averaging 46 appearances since joining the Lakers. He can still produce first-round value, but drafting him there is risky.

Pascal Siakam, Raptors

Siakam has been consistent over the past four years, ranking between 32-48 in per-game fantasy production. Toronto plays an egalitarian offense, so Siakam will continue sharing touches with Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby, but he should be selected in the third round with confidence.

Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

Maybe the most promising young big man in the NBA, Mobley was the early favorite for Rookie of the Year before being usurped by Scottie Barnes. His rebounding and blocks upside is capped while sharing the court with a traditional center in Jarrett Allen, but Mobley can guard out on the perimeter and will rack up defensive numbers simply due to his length and athleticism. An improvement from beyond the arc – 25.0% on 1.3 attempts per game – would go a long way to improving his effectiveness offensively.

Kristaps Porzingis, Wizards

If Porzingis had any track record of being able to stay healthy, he'd arguably be a third-round pick. However, it's hard for optimists to even justify taking him sooner than the fifth round. He hasn't played more than 57 games since 2016-17, and he missed all of 2018-19 due to a torn ACL.

Zion Williamson, Pelicans

After missing all of last season due to a foot injury, this feels like a "prove it" year for Williamson, who has shown flashes of offensive dominance but has played only 85 games in three years. He ranked 50th in per-game value two years ago through a menacing 27.0 points on 61.1 percent shooting, though his 69.8 percent free-throw shooting capped his upside. That, plus a revamped Pelicans team with new offensive weapons CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas, muddies Williamson's upside for this season.

Julius Randle, Knicks

Randle had a shocking career year two seasons ago, ranking 26th in per-game value, but he regressed last season. That was mostly due to a sizeable drop in all three of his shooting percentages, and he finished slashing 41/31/76 for 20.1 PPG. His usage will be complicated this season with the Knicks bringing in Jalen Brunson.

Paolo Banchero, Magic

Banchero should be the first rookie off the board in drafts. He joins an intriguing Magic squad where he'll fight for usage with Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, but Banchero's development may take priority. His shooting is a question, but he has proficiency around the hoop and passes well for his position.

Draymond Green, Warriors

Green is decidedly in his post-prime, but he's still a quality mid-round selection as a box-score stuffer. Games played is a concern – averaging 54.5 over the past four years – and he doesn't have much upside as this point, but he has one of the most established and solid floors in fantasy.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies

A broken foot during the offseason only adds to Jackson's extensive injury history as just a 23-year-old. At the earliest, he's expected back in early November, but that would be surprising given how spotty his recoveries have been in the past. Fantasy managers should feel good if he can return sometime in December. However, that would presumably come with early minutes limits and sitting out back-to-backs. It's tough to value him too far inside the Top 100.

John Collins, Hawks

Collins will probably never again reach the heights he did in 2019-20, but he's settled into a comfortable role as Atlanta's starting power forward. He's a solid mid-round selection and can stay on the court in a variety of lineups due to his ability to catch lobs and hit the three.

Keldon Johnson, Spurs

Johnson appears to be the No. 1 option for the tanking Spurs. He ranked 110th in per-game value last year with 17.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 31.9 minutes. More minutes and usage, plus presumed development, means he can probably be drafted closer to the 70-80 range this year.

Tobias Harris, 76ers

Harris took a step back last year in terms of shooting volume and efficiency. He'll remain the fourth option in Philly's offense this year behind James Harden, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

Michael Porter, Nuggets

Porter played just nine games last year, suffering a back injury early in the season. Back injuries remain the concern for Porter, who missed all of his rookie year due to the issue and has appeared in just 125 games since being drafted 14th overall in 2018. He's shown real upside, but anything more than 60 games should be considered a victory.

Kyle Kuzma, Wizards

Kuzma is coming off a career year for a struggling Wizards team that was without Bradley Beal for the second half of the season. His improvements were encouraging, but he could take a step back in 2022-23 with Beal back, Kristaps Porzingis in town and Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija showing some potential.

PJ Washington, Hornets

Miles Bridges' emergence caused Washington to take a small step back last year, but with Bridges' future uncertain, Washington could be in for a bounceback. He's a relatively low-usage offensive option but can play both frontcourt positions and is proficient on both ends.

Jabari Smith, Rockets

Smith was relatively underwhelming in Summer League, often settling for contested mid-rangers, but he'll undoubtedly be a focus of Houston's rebuild. That said, Kevin Porter, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are also young and more established options. Smith could end up being mostly a three-point shooter as a rookie, making him a risky fantasy option.

Dorian Finney-Smith, Mavericks

Finney-Smith is coming off a career year but remains a low-usage option within Dallas' offense. He'll have more competition for touches this year with Christian Wood in the fold, so he's more of a deep-league option.

Christian Wood, Mavericks

Wood's potential is hard to gauge since early reports indicate he'll be coming off the bench for the Mavs. His usage will presumably be lower than it was with the rebuilding Rockets, and if he also sees reduced minutes, it could result in a significantly lower fantasy ranking.

Keegan Murray, Kings

Murray was impressive in Summer League and looks like he could be a contributor right away. However, he'll presumably be the Kings' fourth or fifth offensive option behind De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter.

Brandon Clarke, Grizzlies

Clarke's per-game fantasy rank has decreased in both seasons since his rookie year, but he could be in for a bounceback with Jaren Jackson potentially set to miss significant time. Clarke has Top 100 upside, but his production will trail off once Jackson is back.