2020-21 NBA Power Rankings, Part 2: How High is the Raptors' Ceiling?

With the current NBA season still in a holding pattern, it's time to look ahead. We already peered into the future at the next five seasons (in podcast form), but for this exercise we're only focused on next season.

Alex Barutha and Nick Whalen collaboratively ranked each team, 1 through 30, with just one question in mind: Which team has the best chance to win the title?

Roster construction was most heavily considered, and projections were made where necessary. However, with so much uncertainty surrounding the upcoming NBA offseason, we shied away from making any major free agency or trade assumptions. The 2020 free agency class projects to be among the weakest in recent memory, anyway, so it's unlikely we see a flurry of major names on the move again as was the case last summer.

After revealing our top 10 teams last week, here are teams 11 through 20 on our list grouped into tiers:

Tier 3: Dangerous Playoff Teams

11. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were expected to take a step back in 2019-20 following the departure of Kawhi Leonard. However, the team didn't miss a beat, claiming the NBA's fourth-best simple rating, fueled by the second-best defensive rating (105.2). Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell all took major steps forward, with solid depth and great coaching able to keep the ship afloat despite plenty of injuries throughout the season.

Toronto's future is fluid. Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet are not under contract for 2020-21. Considering Gasol is 35, it's easy to imagine the organization letting him walk or trying to keep him for a steep discount. Ibaka will be turning 31 and should draw interest around the league as an experienced big who can act as a sixth-man in the frontcourt.

But the most interesting wrinkle is what will happen with VanVleet. He just turned 26 years old and is coming off his best season, averaging 17.6 points (40.9 FG%, 38.8 3P%, 84.3 FT%), 6.6 assists (2.3 turnovers), 3.8 rebounds and 1.9 steals. Losing him in free agency could be what triggers a rebuild. Retaining him could keep Toronto near the top of the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future.

12. Dallas Mavericks

With Luka Doncic on the roster and Kristaps Porzingis playing his best basketball of the season before the shutdown, there's a case for Dallas to be higher. But the Mavs still have some catching up to do elsewhere on the roster. Nearly the entire rotation is under contract for next season, while Tim Hardaway, Jr. will almost certainly opt into the nearly $19 million he's owed in 2020-21. As a result, Dallas will have limited flexibility, but at the rate that Doncic is improving, his presence alone should make Dallas a threat to win 50 games for the foreseeable future.

13. Miami Heat

The addition of Jimmy Butler and the development of Bam Adebayo propelled the Heat into the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference prior to the 2019-20 season's suspension. Coach Erik Spoelstra got the most out of the team's depth, with players like Duncan Robinson, Kendick Nunn, Derrick Jones and Tyler Herro all being legitimate contributors.

The biggest foreseeable change that could occur this offseason is the potential loss of Goran Dragic, who is a free agent this summer. He'll be 34 years old in 2020-21, but averaged an impressive 16.1 points on 12.3 shots, 5.1 assists (2.5 turnovers) and 3.1 rebounds across 28.4 minutes per game. The Heat have enough young guards to justify letting Dragic walk, but the decision could backfire if Nunn and Herro, especially, aren't ready for that kind of responsibility.

While Miami's best player, Jimmy Butler, is in his late prime, the Heat feel like a team on the rise. However, development will only get the team so far. No young players on the roster project as an All-Star anytime soon. That's the kind of player Miami needs to take another step forward and be taken seriously as even a fringe contender.

14. New Orleans Pelicans

Talent-wise, New Orleans has a case for the top-10, but that talent needs to translate to wins. Led by a dramatically improved Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans were poised to make a spirited run at the eighth seed, but they were still on pace for just 36 wins at the time of the shutdown.

A full season of Zion Williamson will push New Orleans' ceiling quite a bit higher, but it still feels like the Pelicans are another piece away from being anything more than a pesky lower seed in the 2021 postseason. If Lonzo Ball continues to trend upward, maybe he's that piece. The Pels will also have to find some semblance of stability at center as Derrick Favors enters free agency this summer.

15. Indiana Pacers

Despite missing Victor Oladipo for all but 13 games, the Pacers still managed to post a 39-26 record before the 2019-20 season suspended. Indiana had tons of new additions that fit seamlessly, including TJ Warren, Justin Holiday, Malcolm Brogdon, TJ McConnell and Jeremy Lamb. Domantas Sabonis took a step forward and was rewarded with an All-Star bid after averaging 18.5 points on 13.7 shots, 12.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 34.8 minutes per game.

Heading into 2020-21, Indiana is capped out, with everyone of relevance being under contract except Holiday. Some questions remain about the fit of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis in the frontcourt, but it's a problem that most teams wish they had. Brogdon started off hot, but cooled down considerably as the season progressed and ended up shooting just 31.3 percent on threes. However, he was put in a bigger scoring role than ever before, and it's one that will probably decrease with the full return of Oladipo. Brogdon was still excellent as a playmaker, averaging 7.1 assists to just 2.4 turnovers.

Outside of a trade, there's not much the Pacers can do to shake things up, not that they should. Internal improvement may be enough for Indiana to take a step forward for a team that's already proved over the past two seasons that it can be very competitive.

16. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers broke through to the Western Conference Finals a year ago, but they never had the feel of a true title contender. While injuries wreaked havoc on another very good roster in 2019-20, the question is whether this core has what it takes to move beyond the upper-middle-class in the Western Conference. Portland has been a playoff team in nine of the last 11 years, but even with Damian Lillard playing the best basketball of his career, the Blazers' ceiling is nowhere near that of the Los Angeles teams. 

For now, Portland will likely run things back again with Lillard, C.J. McCollum and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic. But at some point, you have to imagine management will chart a new course, which could mean moving on from McCollum, who's owed $129 million over the next four seasons. 

Tier 4: Borderline Playoff Teams 

17. Phoenix Suns

The start of the 2019-20 season was a rollercoaster for the Suns. Deandre Ayton was served a 25-game suspension after opening night due to steroid use, but Phoenix still managed to start 7-4, fueled by the impressive play of Aron Baynes. However, Baynes then missed time due to injury, and the Suns eventually slipped in 11-20. Things normalized after that, with the Suns finishing the campaign 26-39.

Many players on the Suns posted great individual seasons, but it didn't translate to wins. Devin Booker made his first All-Star game; Kelly Oubre averaged 18.7 points with 2.0 combined steals-plus-blocks; Deandre Ayton posted 20-10-and-2 in 14 of his 30 appearances; Ricky Rubio averaged 8.9 assists and 1.5 steals with just 2.7 turnovers; Mikal Bridges was 12th in steal percentage (2.5) and 19th in true shooting percentage (62.3).

This offseason, the Suns will have to address the expiring contracts of Baynes and Dario Saric. Saric has proven to be a decent option in the frontcourt, but it doesn't seem like he's making improvements to his game, so letting him walk would be understandable. Baynes proved crucial for the Suns, but he'll quietly be 34 next season. How much is worth as a backup to Ayton?

Even if Baynes and Saric are lost, it's easy to see how the Suns could take a step forward given the talent already on the roster. If everyone stays healthy, Phoenix could make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder will likely remain in a holding pattern next season, but their longer-term outlook is as promising as any team in the league's. In the immediate future, they'll have a decision to make with Chris Paul, who's owed upwards of $41 million next season. But with a treasure trove of future picks at its disposal, Oklahoma City can afford to wait it out and only deal the future Hall-of-Famer for the right price.

If Paul remains in OKC for another season, the Thunder should again compete for a playoff spot, though both Danilo Gallinari and Nerlens Noel -- a sneaky-valuable bench piece -- will enter free agency. If the Thunder opt to deal Paul and rebuild on the fly, then trading Steven Adams, a free agent in 2021, would also make some sense. In that scenario, the Thunder would probably take a step back in 2020-21, but they'd be well-positioned for a serious title run later in the decade.

The keystone asset, of course, is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He's not good enough to carry a team by himself, but having proven he can succeed on and off the ball, the 21-year-old is an ideal building block.

19. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis was one of the NBA's surprise teams in 2019-20, surpassing their preseason over/under of 27.5 wins by Feb. 12 and sitting in the final Western Conference playoff spot when the league suspended play.

Rookie point guards often struggle, especially when entrusted as the true starter, but Ja Morant exceeded expectations. The presumptive Rookie of the Year averaged 17.6 points on 13.6 shots, 6.9 assists (3.2 turnovers) and 3.5 rebounds in 30.0 minutes. Brandon Clarke, the 21st overall pick, found success as well, posting the sixth-highest offensive rating (128.6) in the league. Jonas Valanciunas remained a walking 15-and-10; Jaren Jackson Jr. hit 2.5 threes and blocked 1.6 shots; Dillon Brooks provided a passably-efficient 15.7 points.

20. San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio still gets some benefit of the doubt, but by now it's clear that the franchise's unprecedented run of success may be nearing its end. That doesn't mean the Spurs will stay down for long, but their 2020-21 outlooks is rather uninspiring. Both Dejounte Murray and Derrick White underwhelmed this season, while DeMar DeRozan (player option) and LaMarcus Aldridge (one year remaining) near the end of their contracts.

Unless the young guard pairing finally makes the leap some expected, San Antonio has the look of a borderline playoff team in what should again be a deep and competitive Western Conference.

Next up: Teams 21-30