Duncan Robinson

The Heat signed Robinson to a four-year, $70 million guaranteed contract last summer, but the sharpshooter endured a post-contract-signing slump. His overall efficiency declined for a second straight year, and his 37.2 percent mark from three was only the sixth best on the team of players who took at least 100 shots from distance. While that's still a strong mark, it's a far cry from his 2019-20 season where he converted 44.6 percent of his 8.3 threes per game. As a result, the Heat comfortably played Duncan fewer minutes than in his previous two seasons. He sunk to 25.9 minutes per game last season and averaged 10.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists, resulting in a per-game fantasy rank of 226. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin received opportunities to steal minutes away from Robinson, and the three succeeded in their own ways. Given the sheer amount of money committed to Robinson and a relatively stagnant roster, the Heat should grant the wing plenty of chances to find his three-point shot, since it's practically his only use on the court. He's displayed touches of playmaking ability, but those moments are usually within the flow of the offense, and 93 percent of his shots remained assisted by a teammate. Fantasy managers in standard leagues can probably avoid Robinson unless in desperate need of three-pointers, as Robinson sports minimal upside and is better suited for the bench in deeper formats.

Practically overnight, Robinson became one of the league's best three-point shooters in 2019-20. He followed up that breakout campaign with another great effort in 2020-21. In his third season, the wing averaged 13.1 points while hitting 3.5 threes per game at 40.8 percent. He also contributed 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 31.4 minutes. Only two players have hit more threes than Robinson over the past two seasons (520) -- Damian Lillard (545) and Buddy Hield (553) -- but Robinson has the best percentage (42.7) of the trio. Despite Robinson doing little else on the court (though he's becoming an improved playmaker), he was able to rank 137th in per-game production last season. The Heat rewarded his production with a five-year, $90 million deal during the 2021 offseason -- the largest contract in NBA history for an undrafted player. Heading into 2021-22, nothing should change for the 27-year-old out of Michigan. He took 85 percent of his shots from beyond the arc last season, and that's where he'll continue to do his damage. There's room for him to make strides as a pick-and-roll ballhandler given his immense gravity as a shooter, but the Heat have plenty of other options who are more suited for that. Ultimately, Robinson is an extremely safe bet for fantasy managers in standard leagues with a final pick.

Robinson went undrafted out of Michigan in 2018. Two years later, he was a regular starter on a team that made the NBA Finals. The 6-foot-7 wing earned his opportunities through one standout skill: his excellent three-point shooting. He scored 13.5 points per game while shooting 44.6 percent from beyond the arc, good for fourth-best among qualified players. On a per-36-minute basis, his 10.1 attempts from beyond the arc ranked fourth among qualifiers, while no qualified player attempted fewer than his 1.3 two-pointers. His sweet shooting stroke also showed up at the free-throw line, where he sunk shots at a 93.1 percent clip, though his style of play meant he attempted just 72 free throws all season. As you might expect for a player of his profile, he offered very little beyond scoring, adding just 1.4 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 0.5 steals per game. Still, quite a number of players have carved out very long careers based on little more than knockdown shooting from three. We've only seen one year from Robinson at that level, and his shooting could certainly regress, but he hardly could have established his reputation any better in his first full campaign.

Despite a solid college career at Michigan, one where he displayed a penchant for clutch long-distance shooting, Robinson nevertheless went undrafted in June 2018 and first found his way into the professional ranks via a Summer League contract with the Heat. He parlayed that opportunity into a two-way pact for the 2018-19 season by averaging 12.1 points (on 51.8 percent shooting, including 55.3 percent from three-point range), 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists across 25.6 minutes over seven games between the California Classic and Las Vegas tournaments. Robinson then continued to light it up in the G League with Sioux Falls, putting up 21.4 points (51.4 percent shooting, including 48.3 percent from three-point range), 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steal across 36.9 minutes over 33 games. He only saw 10.7 minutes per contest across 15 games at the NBA level during his rookie season, but his development continued over seven more games this past summer (16.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG across 29.5 minutes). That was apparently enough to convince Miami that Robinson was worthy of another extended look this coming season, as his 2019-20 contract became fully guaranteed in mid-July. At 6-foot-8, Robinson is capable of filling either wing spot, which could certainly help his chances for playing time down the line. For the time being, it appears he's set for another extended G League stay during the forthcoming campaign; however, a stellar showing in training camp and preseason could potentially speed up his career progress, especially if Robinson can show promise as a viable source of second-unit scoring for a team that lost Dwyane Wade to retirement.