Farm Futures: Hitter Predictions

Last season marked the second year of preseason prospect predictions here at RotoWire, and as with most prediction pieces, there were some that looked quite prophetic, and some that I would like to permanently remove from the internet.

Before getting to the hitter predictions for 2018, let's take a look at some notable hits and misses from last year's piece.

The Good

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets his first cold weather exposure in the Midwest League as a newly turned 18-year-old and still hits .280/.360/.460. He gets a taste of High-A toward the end of the season and enters 2018 as a top-three prospect for dynasty leagues.

Verdict: I was right about most of this, but Guerrero was even better than I thought he'd be, slashing .316/.409/.480 in the Midwest League before getting promoted to High-A around the All-Star break.

Gleyber Torres picks up where he left off in the Arizona Fall League and Grapefruit League, making quick work of Eastern League pitching en route to a promotion to Triple-A in mid-May. From there he continues to rake, replacing Chase Headley at third base for the Yankees in early August.

Verdict: He did indeed make quick work of Eastern League pitching and was promoted to Triple-A on May 22. He kept raking, hitting .309/.406/.457 in 23 games at Triple-A, and there were whispers that he could soon get a promotion to the majors around the time that he tore his UCL in late June.

Brendan Rodgers posts an OPS north of .950 over the first half, but there are significant home/road splits, with him doing most of his damage at Lancaster. California League pitchers are mercifully spared when he is promoted to Double-A in July or August.

Verdict: Like with Guerrero, even when I was trying to be bold, I undersold Rodgers' production before his promotion to Double-A on June 22. He posted a 1.297 OPS in Lancaster and .835 OPS on the road prior to moving up to the Eastern League.

Wander Javier hits double-digit home runs in his stateside debut, ascending to the top spot in the Twins' system and top-75 prospect status for dynasty leagues.

Verdict: Well, he didn't hit double-digit home runs, and the Twins drafted their top prospect (Royce Lewis) in the 2017 draft. But if you'd acted on this prediction you would indeed have secured a top-75 prospect for dynasty leagues.

Dylan Cozens, who led the minor leagues with 40 home runs at Double-A Reading last year, hits fewer than 25 homers with a batting average below .250 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Verdict: He just surpassed 25 home runs (27), but hit just .210 and had 194 strikeouts in 476 at-bats at Triple-A and is essentially a non-prospect at this point.

The Bad

Aaron Judge strikes out over 35 percent of the time and gets sent back to Triple-A by mid-June.

Verdict: Woof. I wasn't the only one fading Judge pretty hard this time last year, but it still stings to be this wrong about a guy. The lesson is to not overreact to a hitter's strikeout rate in his first taste of big-league pitching, especially if that prospect has shown an ability to work the count, get on base and has good makeup.

Jake Bauers, who won't turn 22 until after the season, makes his MLB debut just before the All-Star break, and hits .265 with eight home runs over the rest of the season.

Verdict: I'm not sure what I was smoking when I came up with this gem. Yeah, the Rays are gonna rush a guy to the majors. Sure.

Delvin Perez, who finished 2016 in the Gulf Coast League, gets off to a bit of a rocky start in the Midwest League, but finishes strong and enters 2017 as a top-20 prospect for dynasty leagues, profiling as a five-category shortstop.

Verdict: This is another one that I wasn't alone on, but things couldn't have turned out much worse for those who reached for Perez in dynasty-league drafts. This serves as a cautionary tale for those investing heavily in teenagers who have yet to impress against pro pitching.

Ramon Laureano returns to Double-A Corpus Christi, where he leads the Texas League in OPS over the first half of the season. He finishes the year at Triple-A and enters 2018 as a top-50 prospect for dynasty leagues.

Verdict: It's probably not a good idea to aggressively double down on a pop-up prospect. Since then Laureano has been traded to the A's, where he should open the year at Triple-A. He projects to be a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Derian Cruz, who hit .183 with three steals in 25 games in the Appy League last year, hits above .265 with 30-plus steals in his full-season debut.

Verdict: I guess he was trying to tell us something when he hit .183 in the Appy League in 2016. He put up a .596 OPS last year in a return trip to the Appy League and was completely overmatched in a 29-game run at Low-A. I'm still confused as to why he was assigned to Low-A. He is entering his age-19 season, so it's too soon to write him off, but man, things don't look good.

20 Hitter Predictions for 2018

1. Scott Kingery hits .270 with 15-plus home runs and 20-plus steals in the majors after a mid-April promotion from Triple-A.

2. Royce Lewis will be at High-A when he turns 19 on June 5 and he will finish his first full season at Double-A. He will hit double-digit home runs and steal over 30 bases en route to entering 2019 as a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues.

3. Luis Urias hits double-digit home runs across stops at Triple-A and the majors this season after hitting just nine home runs in his previous 1,306 professional at-bats.

4. Austin Riley destroys Triple-A pitching, hitting over .300 with double-digit home runs over the first two months, leading to an early June promotion. He locks down the Braves' third base job, hitting over .260 with 15-plus home runs in his rookie season.

5. Jhailyn Ortiz is headed to a famed pitcher's park at Low-A Lakewood. It won't matter, he'll still lead the Sally League in wRC+ and ISO before getting a taste of High-A in the second half.

6. Colton Welker hits above .350 and sets career bests in ISO and SLG at High-A Lancaster before being assigned to Double-A in late May or early June. He hits above .300 over the rest of the season at Double-A.

7. Jo Adell hits under .250 with a strikeout rate over 27 percent in his full-season debut. He still flashes his impressive power and speed, but enters 2019 outside the top-50.

8. Heliot Ramos hits under .240 with a strikeout rate over 35 percent in the first half at Low-A. He rebounds a bit in the second half, but his dynasty-league value takes a bit of a hit on the whole.

9. Austin Beck goes 20/20 as a 19-year-old in his first full season as a pro in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. He enters 2019 as a top-20 prospect for dynasty leagues.

10. Francisco Mejia will not catch a game in the big leagues this season.

11. DJ Peters hits 30-plus homers between Double-A and Triple-A while striking out less than 30 percent of the time.

12. Sheldon Neuse puts up monster slash lines again in the upper levels of the minors and finishes the season in the middle of Oakland's lineup as the everyday designated hitter.

13. Dermis Garcia hits 35 homers in his age-20 season, splitting time between Low-A and High-A. He enters 2019 as a top-75 prospect for dynasty leagues.

14. Tirso Ornelas, who turned 18 on March 11, will be at least 15 percent better than a league-average hitter (115 wRC+) while hitting double-digit home runs in the Midwest League.

15. Anthony Santander sticks in the big leagues all season and out-earns Willie Calhoun in 15-team mixed leagues.

16. Jose Miranda hits over .280 with 20-plus home runs in his full-season debut.

17. Tyler O'Neill, who enters the year with 557 career plate appearances at Triple-A, makes his big-league debut in August after getting traded for a middle reliever at this year's trade deadline.

18. Ronald Guzman makes his big-league debut this summer, but hits under .250 with an ISO under .150, leading to him getting dropped in the majority of dynasty leagues.

19. Tyreque Reed hits 20-plus home runs with an OBP over .400 in his full-season debut in the Sally League.

20. Demi Orimoloye is this year's Monte Harrison, hitting 20-plus home runs with 20-plus steals across stops at Low-A and High-A in his age-21 season.