The Z Files: Rest-of-Season Risers, Hitting Edition

In the spirit of equal time, this week's Z Files will look at the hitters moving on up my rankings. The last two episodes focused on the hitters and pitchers falling the most. Next week we'll complete the series with the pitchers climbing the greatest relative to initial expectations.

By means of a method review, each week I update my rest-of-season projections. Some of the change is from capturing new skill levels. Some is accounting for changing team context. The rest is adjusting for expected playing time.

Players making the cut exhibit the largest projected earnings gain between rest-of-season (ROS) projections and initial (INI) expectations. The amounts are for 15-team mixed leagues. They're ordered by lowest expected ROS earnings to highest.

Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers (ROS $-7, INI $-18): The negative earnings suggest Gallo isn't ready yet for full time mixed league deployment unless you can absorb a still-low batting average. The slugger is among the league leaders in homers, runs and RBI so with certain roster constructions, Gallo can still be very useful. I'm also assuming he will sit more frequently with Adrian Beltre back in the saddle. The Rangers haven't faced a southpaw since the veteran third baseman returned, but it stands to reason Gallo won't play against all left-handers. Even though his average is on the rise, he's still fanning at an elevated rate. His skills haven't changed; I'm assigning him more playing time than my initial expectation.

Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians (ROS $-6, INI $-22): To be clear, if I own Zimmer in mixed leagues, he's currently in my lineup, despite a negative ROS earnings. That said, I have an exit strategy at the ready. His current .306 average is buoyed by an unsustainable .409 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Zimmer is fanning at a 30 percent clip, which is high but, in today's landscape, passable if it comes with power and/or speed. Still, I see an average closer to .200 than .300 for the rest of the campaign. Zimmer isn't playing every day, but currently he's playing enough to be mixed-league viable. My concern is the inevitable slump will cost him playing time, initiating your move to Plan B.

Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles (ROS $-5, INI $-22): It's difficult pegging Mancini's playing time for the final four months. As a righty swinger, he'd get the weak side of a platoon. However, he's hitting better against right-handers than some of the Orioles right-handed sticks. He's also been blessed with a fortunate BABIP, keeping his average north of .300 despite a 28 percent strikeout rate. The difference is Mancini's pedigree portends better contact, which is captured by the ROS projection.

Marwin Gonzalez, Houston Astros (ROS $-2, INI $-18): Some of the delta between INI and ROS is an overly conservative playing time expectation coming into the year. To be honest, the current difference may be too small since I'm reticent to assume Gonzalez continues to play at the pace he did for the first two months of 2017. He took advantage of slow starts by Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel. As the season progresses I see Bregman and Gurriel costing Gonzalez significant at-bats. The problem is, Gonzalez continues to smoke the ball, so A.J. Hinch will continue to keep his stick in the lineup. However, note that his 31 percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) dwarfs his career 12 percent mark and is due for a precipitous fall. You'd think that elevated HR/FB would be supported by a high hard-hit rate, but in fact, Gonzalez 28 percent clip is below league average. This is why I see Bregman and Gurriel pushing Gonzalez to the bench. Regression is on the way.

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (ROS $-1, INI not ranked): Like the four previous hitters discussed, Happ's playing time is far from certain. Joe Maddon's style is to find a means to play everyone worthy, but on a team rich in talent like the Cubs, there's only so many lineup spots to go around. Happ's defensive flexibility certainly helps, but with Javier Baez in the mix on the infield, Happ's likely relegated to chasing flies with Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Albert Almora, with Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant getting time in the outfield as well. Skill-wise, Happ's pedigree is superior to those already highlighted, driving the better ROS expectation. That said, his 37 percent strikeout rate is out of sync with his minor-league numbers, even accounting for the usual increase upon promotion. If this persists, a demotion is quite possible. Like the others, play him now, but if his playing time dwindles, be ready to jump ship.

Aaron Altherr, Philadelphia Phillies (ROS $0, INI $-13): It's borderline hack, not to mention self-serving, but I was a year too early with Altherr. I expected him, not Odubel Herrera, to be the Phillies' breakout outfielder in 2016. Of course, a spring training injury delayed Altherr's debut last season, but after an initial run of solid play after returning, he couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag. Coming into 2017, I still liked the skills, I just didn't see a clear avenue to playing time after Philadelphia inexplicably acquired Howie Kendrick and, to a lesser extent, Michael Saunders. Well, an injury to Kendrick paved the way for regular action and Altherr has taken advantage. So much so, that when he, Kendrick and Saunders are all healthy, Altherr should continue to play most of the time. A 26 percent strikeout rate isn't great, but he walks enough, along with decent pop and a handful of steals. In short, his production isn't surprising. All he needed was a chance.

Ezequiel Carrera, Toronto Blue Jays (ROS $1, INI $-10): Carrera's placement on this list revolves almost completely around Steven Pearce. This is more of a gut call than anything, but it feels like Pearce will never be fully healthy, at least not for a long stretch. This leaves Carrera playing against right-handers. Obviously, I could be wrong. The Blue Jays intended to play Pearce regularly with Carrera serving as the fourth outfielder. When healthy, Kevin Pillar's glove and Jose Bautista's stick keep them in the lineup with Kendrys Morales occupying designated hitter. That just leaves left field. Carrera's strength is contact, which is useful in a potentially explosive lineup. With regular, or even platoon, playing time he's capable of double digit steals and homers, but as alluded to, the playing time isn't a sure thing. If you need the batting average support, Carrera is mixed league worthy. Just be ready to bail when Pearce is back. However, if possible, continue to stash Carrera.

Mark Reynolds, Colorado Rockies (ROS $3, INI $-14): This one's pretty easy. Ian Desmond's injury thrust Reynolds into full-time action, even against right-handers. Reynolds has had extended stretches of success in the past, but eventually a terrible contact rate catches up and he's looking for a job. Desmond is back, but this time Reynolds strikeouts aren't excessive, especially in today's climate. Perhaps this is due to strikeouts lessening in the thin air. Regardless, Reynolds isn't in danger of playing himself out of a job anytime soon. In fact, at least so far, it's Desmond and Gerardo Parra splitting time with Reynolds playing every day. Now the bad news. Even with Coors Field lowering punchouts, Reynolds is due for a slide, which could result in more first base play for Desmond.

Leury Garcia, Chicago White Sox (ROS $4, INI $-24): With Charlie Tilson still out after a spring training injury and the Jacob May era over before it started, someone had to play center field for the Pale Hose. Enter Garcia, more of a utility infielder dabbling in the outfield than an everyday center fielder. Garcia's capable of playing the position, just don't expect him to compete with Pillar, Kevin Kiermaier or Jackie Bradley Jr. for a Gold Glove. Garcia's contact rate is driving the favorable forecast, along with emerging power to complement the running game. Tilson could come back. May could get his act together. But so long as Garcia hits, he'll play. That said, Tilson will be afforded a chance at the job, so plan accordingly.

Yonder Alonso, Oakland Athletics (ROS $6, INI $-4): Alonso is the first batter to be highlighted exclusively from improved skills. The others have demonstrated better skills, leading to more playing time. Alonso's playing time hasn't changed; it's what he'll do with it that's propelling him up the ranks. This has been discussed previously so I won't belabor the point. While it's true many players alter their approach and mechanics and we only hear about those with positive results, Alonso appears to be someone where the changes have worked. The added loft has ballooned his HR/FB to a career best 28 percent, a mark over four times the level he's shown the past few seasons. It's likely to fall back, but the landing point will be well above single-digit territory.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees (ROS $7, INI $-3): There's not much to say here. Holliday's production isn't surprising when you consider the big park upgrade from Busch Stadium to the Bronx. It's his health that's driving the increased expectations. He's not out of the woods yet, but the longer he avoids the disabled list, the less percentage of time I'll project him to miss. This has often come back to burn me, but Holliday's showing no indication of breaking down, largely because he's been able to play almost exclusively at designated hitter.

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox (ROS $8, INI $-5): The other Garcia in the South Side also makes the list. It's weird, the theme today is players with improved outlooks, yet the commentary is more cautionary than complimentary. For many, the improved ranking manifests from an improved BABIP or HR/FB. We proverbial basement dwellers are paid to point these things out, while major-league managers are paid to win games. They don't care how; they care how many. The same holds true here. A high BABIP, and to a lesser extent HR/FB, has increased Garcia's playing time. To his credit, he's taking advantage by hitting a few more fly balls, though a 50 percent groundball rate is still too high for his skill set.

Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers (ROS $10, INI $-1): While there has been noticeable improvement in his plate skills captured by the ROS season algorithm, the bulk of the upgrade is health related. Santana is exhibiting no residual issues from the elbow and shoulder woes that plagued him last year. Maybe it's because of this he is making better contact while being more selective. This has translated into more pop and he's even running a little. Santana needs to avoid the disabled list the remainder of the season to shed the injury-prone label, but if he does, he profiles as an OF3/OF4 in mixed leagues next spring.

Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians (ROS $12, INI $2): I was wr… I was wro… I was wrong. Not only was I pessimistic about Brantley's health, I was bearish with respect to performance. He has returned to 2013-2015 levels. I'm still hedging a little with playing time, but with every update, that gets smaller and smaller. We're looking at a $20-plus player when healthy.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (ROS $15, INI $-9): Others will likely have a rosier ROS outlook for Zimmerman, and they're likely right. My numbers are .274 with 17 more homers, which in a vacuum is still pretty darned good. I'm hedging with playing time, only projecting about 90 more games, helping explain the homer total. With respect to average, it's a matter of where his .403 BABIP lands after regression kicks in. He's always carried an above average hard-hit rate, but this season it's otherworldly.

Starlin Castro, New York Yankees (ROS $15, INI $5): Castro's increased expectations are the sum of a lot of little things. His plate skills are a little better, which helps, but unto themselves would result in only a small bump. His BABIP is high, but isn't supported by his hard-hit rate or line drive rate, so I expect a tumble in average, but still better than initial expectations. The real driving force is team context. Castro's been hitting higher in the order along with the club scoring more than projected. The added runs help turn the lineup over more, as well as adding to Castro's run production.

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers (ROS $16, INI not ranked): Not really a huge mystery here, I misread the Dodgers intent and should have planned on Bellinger making his debut this season. He's obviously here to stay. My ROS prognostication is an average in the .260 range, with low 20s homers and high single-digit steals. Oh yeah, he'll need to clear a spot on his mantle for some Rookie of the Year hardware.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (ROS $16, INI $-4): Hey, at least I had the sense to give Judge a projection. The power isn't shocking; it's the batting average that's raising eyebrows. Small sample size alert: Judge's batted ball profile is goofy. He's carrying a 40 percent hard hit rate, which is silly. Will he continue to be among the leaders on the Statcast exit velocity board? Yeah, probably. But not threatening 50 percent. The other oddity is a 50 percent flyball rate with only a 14 percent line drive mark. It's been two months, far too early to use these as a baseline. The best we can do isn't exactly ground-breaking analysis. Judge's power is real, and we aren't sure where he'll nestle in terms of batting average. Through it all, his contact has remained a low, but acceptable 66 percent.

Michael Conforto, New York Mets (ROS $17, INI $-3): The question here is likely, only $17 going forward? Part of that is limited steals. The bulk is I still see Conforto as more of a line drive, gap hitter and not a slugger. His 31 percent HR/FB is ripe for regression. On the other hand, he's playing every day, currently in the leadoff spot.

Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers (ROS $26, INI $16): Thames has been the subject of a lot of scrutiny. The increase in expectations results from whiffing less than initially projected, along with the anticipation he runs a little more than he has thus far. Here's more less than earth-shattering analysis. Thames isn't as good as he looked to begin the season, nor is he as bad as he appeared in early May. If I'm wrong about the steals, he's a $20 player, still very good.

I know this has been a bit longer than usual, but I want to close by listing the next handful of names on the list, since many of them are likely leading your squads and you're curious if I think they'll keep it up. As always, I'll be happy to elucidate in the comments, but I indeed project good things for the following: Cesar Hernandez, Corey Dickerson, Adam Frazier, Justin Smoak, Scott Schebler, Travis Shaw, Justin Bour, Brett Gardner, Chris Owings and Gary Sanchez.