This article is part of our The Z Files series.
One of the keys to assembling a winning fantasy squad is determining where you are ahead, and in some cases behind, the market. Being able to wait on or pay less for a player facilitates roster construction. Knowing you're likely to pick up a certain player allows you to focus on other positions or statistical needs. Not being interested in a player at market cost could push a desired player to you.
Currently, the major market influences are the early NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Draft and Hold leagues with some contributions from public mocks. Since the majority of what you read and hear about are NFBC results, it's important to keep the information in context.
The NFBC is its own market with several nuances not necessarily translating other formats, such as other public leagues and your home leagues. Some of the reasons are unique to the Draft and Hold format, while others are more general NFBC trends. Let's review a few.
The Draft and Hold format does not allow trading or free agent pickups, affecting how certain positions or stats are handled. For years, the tried and true approach of "Bully Hitting, Manage Pitching" has been a mainstay in conventional leagues. The notion is to use an excess of draft assets on hitting, then fortify pitching throughout the season via free agency, waivers and trades, all options devoid from Draft and Hold play. As such, NFBC drafters tend to pull pitching up their cheat sheets, not only in the
One of the keys to assembling a winning fantasy squad is determining where you are ahead, and in some cases behind, the market. Being able to wait on or pay less for a player facilitates roster construction. Knowing you're likely to pick up a certain player allows you to focus on other positions or statistical needs. Not being interested in a player at market cost could push a desired player to you.
Currently, the major market influences are the early NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Draft and Hold leagues with some contributions from public mocks. Since the majority of what you read and hear about are NFBC results, it's important to keep the information in context.
The NFBC is its own market with several nuances not necessarily translating other formats, such as other public leagues and your home leagues. Some of the reasons are unique to the Draft and Hold format, while others are more general NFBC trends. Let's review a few.
The Draft and Hold format does not allow trading or free agent pickups, affecting how certain positions or stats are handled. For years, the tried and true approach of "Bully Hitting, Manage Pitching" has been a mainstay in conventional leagues. The notion is to use an excess of draft assets on hitting, then fortify pitching throughout the season via free agency, waivers and trades, all options devoid from Draft and Hold play. As such, NFBC drafters tend to pull pitching up their cheat sheets, not only in the Draft and Hold format, but FAAB leagues as well.
Similarly, some abide by the mantra, "Don't pay for saves." As is the case with everything, this is league contextual with the ploy more effective in shallower leagues. Because you can't run to the waiver wire and pick up the flavor of the week with respect to saves, top closers are always accelerated in NFBC leagues, especially of the Draft and Hold variety.
Normally, a note on steals and catchers would occupy this space. However, with the likes of Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton losing their luster as well as a paucity of elite backstops to front a wasteland of a player pool, there's really nothing relevant in terms of drafting trends to exploit.
While the NFBC is a pay for play entity, the price points of the early leagues are akin to many home leagues. Thus, the "high stakes" aspect isn't a real influence yet. However, since there's an enticing overall champion element to the Draft and Hold format (which the NFBC calls Draft Championship), the NFBC market treats players differently. Many feel you need to take chances to chase the big carrot. Ergo, high risk players are in greater demand. One subset is prospects expected to contribute in 2019, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez. Young players with promising early production like Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Ozzie Albies and Adalberto Mondesi are highly sought after. Players coming off career seasons such as Christian Yelich, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell draw a lot of attention.
With that as a backdrop, here are five players I favor more than the market, at least for now. While I'll never change a ranking to make it sync up more with the market, I'd be foolish if I didn't do a deeper dive. Often, this uncovers something I failed to incorporate in my initial evaluation.
This may change if Altuve looks healthy and spry in the spring. To no one's surprise, Altuve was playing hurt much of last season. He underwent knee surgery to take care of an avulsion fracture in October, with the expectation he's ready for spring training. The obvious question is how much did the injury hinder his 2018 performance, especially power and speed?
To be honest, even with a complete recovery, I have the same concerns I did this time last year when I had Altuve as the top overall fantasy player. That said, since I had him ranked so high, I obviously ignored the concerns. Plus, even with these concerns, I'm still more bearish than most.
I'm not the only one to worry about Altuve's stolen bases. His running was already on the decline, though nowadays 30-something steals is the new 50. To maintain first round status, Altuve needs at least 25 bags, certainly a plausible expectation.
Knee woes also affected Altuve's power, especially since his ability to drive the ball involves his whole body and not just upper-body and arm strength. The key when looking at last season's numbers is that it was more than homers turning into doubles; Altuve's overall extra-base hits dropped precipitously. This brings us back to last offseason where he was coming off consecutive 24 home run campaigns. The safe bet was, and still is, something a little shy of that target. In fact, I'd take the under on 20, though give me the over on 17.
Most will agree with the previous two assessments. The following was, and still could be, a point of misunderstanding if not contention. On the surface, Altuve's batted-ball profile does not sync up with a guy expected to contend for the batting title every season. Specifically, Altuve's hard-hit rate doesn't support the level of BABIP (batting average on balls in play) he historically posts. Granted, when healthy, he has the power and speed to carry a lofty BABIP, but there's more to it than that.
The problem with looking at a hard-hit rate is it's still mostly subjective. Statcast is getting closer, but with respect to publicly available data, we're still dealing with a human's interpretation of a batted ball. Further, even when using something objective like average exit velocity, it's not the whole story. There's a range associated with every number of that ilk. Ignoring launch angle for a moment, the same average exit velocities can render different outcomes depending on the shape of the inputs. Not all the curves are symmetrical around the average. Some could have more extremely high exit velocities with more lesser ones, etc.
Applying this principle to Altuve's hard-hit data, he's getting many more hits than the average player on balls recorded as soft or meduim. What we don't know is their exact nature. Depending on the data source, again subjective in nature, medium-struck balls are the most detrimental. Their BABIP is lower than that of soft-hit balls, both of which significantly trail hard-hit.
My contention is Altuve's approach and plate coverage yield results like no other batter. He can turn on an inside pitch, or a mistake, pulling a rocket shot. On the other hand, Altuve's elevated hand-eye coordination and quickness allow him to flick outside pitches into right, as well as making contact when he's fooled. These batted balls result in the extra hits, not accounted for in his batted ball profile.
The issue is this is mostly narrative. Sure, some is based on watching him do this repeatedly, but it still entails more anecdotal evidence than I like to use in analysis. The mistake I made last season when ranking Altuve on top is not accounting for the reasonable chance some of the elevated BABIP was luck-driven, and not all dunking the ball the other way. By the numbers, I should have regressed his BABIP down towards what's dictated by his batted ball profile, also using the more advanced Statcast data. I'm not saying Altuve has been lucky the past several seasons, last year notwithstanding. I'm saying the proper analytical approach requires recognizing that as a possibility, which I didn't do.
My current evaluation of Altuve is essentially ignoring last season while factoring in the described regression. In addition, a more conservative playing time expectation is needed; planning on nearly 700 plate appearances like he averaged from 2013-2016 is aggressive. My landing point is still somewhere in the second half of the first round, a $30-$35 player in mixed leagues. This is probably where he belonged last season.
As mentioned earlier, there's a good chance Altuve ends up in this range with a strong Grapefruit League. Perhaps I'm simply expecting he returns fully healthy as opposed to waiting to see it.
Part of Blackmon's market suppression is that for everyone moving up, someone must move down. At least with respect to the NFBC, player's coming off down seasons are prime candidates, especially when they're on the plus side of 30 years old.
Just two years ago, Blackmon was 2017's best fantasy player. The previous season he came in seventh. Does what he did in 2018 really warrant pushing him all the way down to late second, early third round status?
Admittedly, a strikeout rate on the rise is disconcerting, though Blackmon still sports an above average contact rate. In order to justify a fall down the ranks, others must be more concerned Blackmon's contact continues to wane. I'm looking at it leveling off, if not rebounding a little.
Chances are I'm in lockstep with the market in no longer expecting Blackmon to be a major stolen base factor. That said, he swiped just 14 the season he was the top fantasy player. That seems well within reach again.
In terms of power, Blackmon still is scheduled to play half his games in Coors Field. His component metrics supported a drop in homers as his HR/FB mark fell in concert with a three percent drop in fly balls hit. Just 32 years old, both are likely just variance and not a skills decline. As such, one or both are apt to revert to previous levels, boosting overall production.
The one area I have some reticence is health. Blackmon is getting older and plays in a park requiring a lot of running. The catch is he's missed just nine games combined the past two seasons, averaging 715 trips to the dish in that span. Even allowing for a few more off days, hitting atop what should be an improved lineup should dictate a late first, early second round pick, in the range of $28-$32. If I get an early first round pick, I'd be thrilled to snag Blackmon with one of my next two selections.
Stanton is still the same guy that knocked 59 balls out of the yard in 2017. His follow-up season of 38 wasn't bad. He's still playing half his games in Yankee Stadium.
Some may question that last point, since Stanton swings right-handed and the venue is known for its short right field porch. Whether it by design or just happenstance, Stanton became much less of a pull hitter last season, a trait which should serve him favorably assuming he continues to don pinstripes.
Putting a mid-40s home run projection on anyone is optimistic, especially if they've only done it once. However, the main reason Stanton fell short in most of the other seasons was missing time due to injuries. I'm not saying two seasons of near-perfect attendance absolves Stanton of all injury risk, but being drafted late second, early third seems like far too much of a penalty, especially with the designated hitter slot available. If you're willing to wait out pitching until the fourth round, it's entirely plausible to start a draft with Mookie Betts or Mike Trout, then follow with Blackmon and Stanton. Heck, you could even take Max Scherzer first and grab those batters next. Neither combo seems fair.
Last season, Goldschmidt was the 29th-best fantasy player. So far, he's being drafted in that range, perhaps a few picks sooner. Ostensibly, this is saying most expect him to repeat, maybe improve a little on 2018's production. By extension, if he's on this list, my expectations exceed that.
To be honest, I'm not far off from the market, but where I differ allows the discussion of an oft-ignored topic. Aside from finishing last year with just seven pilfers, Goldschmidt's runs and RBI were well off career levels, especially since his own homers and batting average were on par with his norms. The Diamondbacks scored just 693 runs last season, following a season with 812 tallies and 752 the season before that. Granted, the humidor likely had an effect, but not to the extent incurred last year.
Goldschmidt's runs plus RBI total was 178 last season. It was 237 in 2017 and 201 in 2016. Perhaps I'm being hasty, especially with A.J. Pollock a free agent, but my expectation is for the Snakes to slither across the plate a few more times, increasing Goldschmidt's overall production. If he merely repeats least season with 15-20 more runs plus RBI and a couple more bags, we're looking at a wheel pick. With respect to his running, note Goldschmidt picked up the pace in the second half, when his season took a turn for the better. Steals often dovetail with how a player is performing in general since there is an attitude/mindset aspect to running, beyond skill and even opportunity.
My confidence with this example is the lowest of the five. The reason is you can least afford a mistake identifying your ace pitcher, as it's harder to make up for the error relative to other types of players. As such, I can understand being hesitant when Kluber is atop your cheat sheet.
That said, the Nervous Nellies point to Kluber's late-season dip in velocity. Be it average, max, 10th percentile or 90th percentile, Kluber's September velocity was anywhere from .5 – 2.0 mph slower than any other month. If this occurred in any other month, chances are it would be ignored, considered noise. However, it sticks out as the last month of the season, opening things up to more narratives. Is this the beginning of a slide, seeing as there's a lot of mileage on his arm? Was Kluber hurt, and if so, how can we be sure he's 100 percent heading into 2019?
On the other hand, Kluber's September 35.3 percent strikeout rate was by far his monthly high, helping to fuel his lowest monthly expected ERA marks. Perhaps it was more matchup related, with Kluber realizing he was more effective with a little less velocity? Yeah, this feels more like rationalization than sound reasoning, but it's plausible.
I've seen "better to be off Kluber one year too early than one year too late." As explained, I understand the principle. Currently, I have Kluber as the fourth-best starting pitcher. He's gone top four in a few drafts, but usually ends up between the fifth and eighth starting pitcher off the board. If I can wait until that range to make Kluber my ace, sign me up!
