This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
Like a hitter working to adjusting his swing, or a pitcher adding a new offering to his arsenal, this piece is a work in progress.
Today brings the addition of split tables for the starting pitchers, which should allow us to quickly and easily find matchups to exploit (and avoid) with opposing hitters. Additionally, I will include a park factors table with this piece each day.
The Weather
The ridiculous winds from last week's forecasts appear to be gone, but there is a threat of rain in Philadelphia, Baltimore, D.C., Chicago, New York, and Atlanta on Tuesday. Be sure to check the RotoWire Weather page as lineup lock approaches.
The Parks
The small number of games played at Atlanta's SunTrust Park makes the park factors very noisy at this point, but thanks to the calculations of Todd Zola, we have a snapshot of what has taken place there thus far.
Julio Teheran's struggles at home have been well documented, but as the numbers above show, lefties have been getting a huge power boost in Atlanta so far (third greatest of Tuesday's home parks with the long ball surging 35 percent) while righties have had homers reduced by 15 percent. Again, plenty can change over the next four-plus months, and even then, we're considering one year of data compared to a three-year snapshot of the other park factors, which are from the Bill James Handbook.
Without considering matchups, left-handed bats in the Blue Jays-Brewers, Royals-Yankees, Pirates-Braves, Indians-Reds, Twins-Orioles, and Cards-Dodgers
Like a hitter working to adjusting his swing, or a pitcher adding a new offering to his arsenal, this piece is a work in progress.
Today brings the addition of split tables for the starting pitchers, which should allow us to quickly and easily find matchups to exploit (and avoid) with opposing hitters. Additionally, I will include a park factors table with this piece each day.
The Weather
The ridiculous winds from last week's forecasts appear to be gone, but there is a threat of rain in Philadelphia, Baltimore, D.C., Chicago, New York, and Atlanta on Tuesday. Be sure to check the RotoWire Weather page as lineup lock approaches.
The Parks
The small number of games played at Atlanta's SunTrust Park makes the park factors very noisy at this point, but thanks to the calculations of Todd Zola, we have a snapshot of what has taken place there thus far.
Julio Teheran's struggles at home have been well documented, but as the numbers above show, lefties have been getting a huge power boost in Atlanta so far (third greatest of Tuesday's home parks with the long ball surging 35 percent) while righties have had homers reduced by 15 percent. Again, plenty can change over the next four-plus months, and even then, we're considering one year of data compared to a three-year snapshot of the other park factors, which are from the Bill James Handbook.
Without considering matchups, left-handed bats in the Blue Jays-Brewers, Royals-Yankees, Pirates-Braves, Indians-Reds, Twins-Orioles, and Cards-Dodgers are the most appealing.
Right-handed bats in the Rockies-Phillies matchup, Giants-Cubs, Padres-Mets, and Royals-Yankees get the biggest power boost.
The Arms
Overall Skills
(Note: The Overall Skills Table compiles stats from the past calendar year.)
Split Skills
(Note: All Stats in the Split Skills Table are compiled since the start of the 2016 season.)
Playing Kershaw makes more sense than fading him for the other top arms when you consider that Carlos Carrasco is making his first start since leaving a game with a pectoral injury, Lance McCullers matches up with a scary Detroit offense that is still trying to find its stride, and Johnny Cueto squares off with Jon Lester and the Cubs.
Maybe it's a lack of fortitude, but I don't trust Danny Duffy in the Bronx against the Yankees. The park factors in addition to Duffy's homer issues against right-handed bats (1.24 HR/9, .321 wOBA since the start of 2016) is leading me elsewhere.
The cheaper arms come with the usual concerns, if Matt Harvey can't cash in against the Padres at home, it's going to be a sad day.
If I had to choose an arm cheaper than Harvey on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Jesse Hahn's home start against the Marlins would be my preferred GPP choice. Hahn's Achilles heel is handling lefties, and the Marlins' top-two power bats hit on the right side. Even though Christian Yelich and Justin Bour can do damage, the Oakland Coliseum reduces left-handed homers by 20 percent -- only Fenway is worse in that regard from the parks in play tonight.
The Bats
The weakest starting pitchers to target include: Dylan Covey, Andrew Cashner, Zach Eflin, R.A. Dickey, and Jordan Zimmermann. There will be plenty of D-Backs, Red Sox, Rockies, Pirates, and Astros stacks assembled Tuesday as a result.
For stack combination assistance, check out the RotoWire Optimizer's new Stack Generator by clicking the 'Stacks' button just below the Optimal Lineup window.
Against Covey
Thus far, Covey shown a reverse split, but his body of work against lefties isn't nearly good enough to adjust any stacks or one-off plays (.495 wOBA allowed v. RHH, .334 v. LHH). Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb are once again excellent building blocks. Even though he'll likely be used from the No. 6 spot, Brandon Drury (.391 wOBA against RHP) is a nice cheap option at second base on both sites.
Keep in mind, the over/under in the White Sox/Snakes matchup is 11, so and looking at right-handed pop against Patrick Corbin isn't a bad idea either. If you want to fade Goldy in GPPs, Jose Abreu ($3,600 FD/$4,800 DK) is a great way to go about it.
Against Cashner
While Cashner is more vulnerable to lefties, the difference is very small. Fenway Park boosts homers for right-handed bats, and there is no reason to pass up on Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, or Dustin Pedroia because of their lack of a platoon advantage Tuesday. Andrew Benintendi returned to the cleanup spot Sunday and finished 1-for-3 with a pair of steals, an RBI, and a run scored. Including his three hits over the weekend, Benintendi is 11-for-51 (.216) over the last two weeks, but he appears to be working his way out of the slump.
Against Eflin
Eflin's inability to miss bats makes him a consistent target when his turn in the rotation comes up. Righties get a bigger park boost in this matchup, but his long-ball issues against lefties are significant (.217 HR/9, .355 wOBA v. LHH). Thanks to a deflated price on both sides, Carlos Gonzalez is an interesting option Tuesday, and it will be interesting to see if the high price for a road matchup steers owners away from Charlie Blackmon in a favorable spot.
Against Dickey
For those building around Kershaw, a three or four-man Pirates stack should free up enough cash to get a few expensive bats elsewhere in the lineup. The Pirates' offense is brutal, but the price of Josh Bell ($2,800 FD/$3,900 DK) lags behind the power production he's shown to this point. As noted above, SunTrust Park has been very kind to left-handed hitters so far, and the switch-hitting Bell is on the short list of Pirates with the necessary pop to take advantage.
Against Zimmermann
Righties have been tearing Zimmermann apart, and the Astros have plenty of big bats on that side of the plate. With Brian McCann on the 7-day DL, Evan Gattis will end up in DFS lineups on a regular basis in the short term. Tuesday is another great opportunity to tap into his power. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are fine as pricey foundations, and taking the bait on a still-discounted (and underperforming) Alex Bregman makes more sense than usual today. Although Zimmermann's weaker split is against righties, Josh Reddick's place in the lineup and fair price should put him on the radar for one of your three outfield spots.
Noteworthy
Additionally, lefties against Lance Lynn have a .408 wOBA, while he's struggled to the tune of a 14.6% K% and 13.5% BB% against them. Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager are all in play.
Alex Cobb is quietly trending back toward being a steady mid-rotation piece for the Rays. He continues to get hammered by lefties, however, as he's allowed a .403 wOBA against while posting a very low 13.6% K% against them since the start of last season. Luis Valbuena is hitting in the cleanup spot Monday, and can be used as a cheap GPP filler at third base as a result ($2,500 FD/$3,100 DK).
Blue Jays bats against Jimmy Nelson are in play, though I'm hesitant to target Joe Biagini with multiple Brewers since he's proven capable of getting a lot of outs on the ground to this point in his career.
Tyler Glasnow is also worth targeting, but the absence of Freddie Freeman makes a full stack against him considerably less desirable. Matt Adams remains cheap after homering against Gerrit Cole in a more difficult matchup Monday. Despite being a righty without the aforementioned SunTrust homer boost, Tyler Flowers is playable in GPPs. As the lefty options go, Nick Markakis' power is impossible to rely on, but this is as good a spot as any if you are feeling very lucky.
Rain permitting, hitters on both sides of the Washington lineup can be deployed comfortably against Christian Bergman.
Finally, Amir Garrett's strong splits against lefties are offset by the damage he's been susceptible to from righties. Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yan Gomes are the three best Cleveland hitters to target.
