The RotoWire Roundtable: February Consolidated Top 350, Part I

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Updated on February 17, 2013 2:45PM EST

RotoWire Roundtable
By Michael Rusignola

(Due to the size of this table, we've broken this down to two pages. These are the ranks from 1-175. You can see 176-350 here)

Welcome back to another year of the RotoWire Roundtable! I'm sure many of you (like me) are in the early stages of planning for a league draft or auction. At its simplest, draft day strategy is about finding the right places to zig when everyone else zags. If you're doing it well, you're just a couple steps ahead of the competition - but you're not doing crazy things that confuse and bewilder the other owners in your league. True genius should be invisible to your competition until the draft or auction is nearly over.

So how exactly do you do this? It's simple: don't overpay for the players you love and don't bank on players falling to you that will likely be gone. We can all look at ADP to get a sense for where a player might go, but what ADP doesn't tell you is the variability associated with the ranking. This kind of sanity check (which many owners fail to do) ensures your draft day approach will actually be implementable. Think of the RotoWire Roundtable as a proxy for different strategies you may encounter: the more diversity there is in our rankings, the more unpredictable that player is likely to be in your own league draft or auction.

First, the ground rules: our rankings were assembled

RotoWire Roundtable
By Michael Rusignola

(Due to the size of this table, we've broken this down to two pages. These are the ranks from 1-175. You can see 176-350 here)

First, the ground rules: our rankings were assembled for 12-team, 5x5 mixed leagues that starts two catchers per team (thus there is a positional scarcity component added for catchers). We use five rankers: Jeff Erickson, Derek VanRiper, Michael Rusignola, Kevin Payne and our newest ranker, Jason Collette. The rankings were completely blinded -- none of the rankers saw any of the other rankings before the publication of this article. We aim to publish this series monthly through the first beginning of the season, with a final update in early April, once the season has begun.

An Overview of February's Rankings

February rankings always tend to have the most variability, as playing time and health issues are not yet resolved. Once again, Jeff's rankings seemed to be the most centrist of the bunch (see Table 1a), also exhibiting the highest correlation with the four other rankings (see Table 1b). Overall, there was less variability between the rankings than there was last year. Naturally, batters represented a significant portion of the early draft (see Table 2). Jason gave the lowest premium to the top starters but was bullish on the catching crop. Michael and Jason had the biggest divide over the ranking of relievers, with Jason pro-reliever (average elite reliever 77.8) and Michael anti-reliever (average elite reliever 93.8).

Table 1a: Correlation with Final Ranks

Correlation	Jeff	DVR	Michael	Kevin	Jason
Correlations with the final ranks	0.98	0.91	0.95	0.89	0.96

Table 1b: Correlation between Rankers

Correlation	Jeff	DVR	Michael	Kevin	Jason
Jeff	1.00	0.96	0.97	0.95	0.98
DVR	0.96	1.00	0.92	0.94	0.94
Michael	0.97	0.92	1.00	0.91	0.96
Kevin	0.95	0.94	0.91	1.00	0.92
Jason	0.98	0.94	0.96	0.92	1.00

Table 2: Position Breakdown

Average Rank of Top...	50 Batters	3 Catchers	15 Starters	5 Relievers
Jeff	29.96	40.00	45.66	83.60
DVR	29.50	41.00	47.60	83.80
Michael	30.72	36.33	43.60	93.80
Kevin	30.78	39.66	42.60	88.60
Jason	28.38	30.00	54.40	77.80

Rankings with One Outlier

First, we'll go through a couple of players where four of the rankers were in alignment but one ranker was out on the proverbial limb.

Mitch Moreland (1B) - The Optimist: DVR (190); The Pack: Jeff (319), Michael (311), Kevin (318), Jason (322).

Our optimist cites that even with the addition of Lance Berkman, the Rangers have much more flexibility in their DH spot this season, meaning there are still plenty of at-bats to go around for Moreland. If he's able to carve out 500 at-bats, Moreland has enough pop to make a run at 25 homers, while driving in a ton of runs as part of a still-strong Texas lineup. The pack is not certain the Rangers are sold on Moreland. It is hard to give Moreland a 500+ at-bat projection given how the Rangers have used him in the past, not to mention his declining walk rate and his big righty/lefty splits. At some point the Rangers have to make room for Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt to play, and Moreland seems among the more likely to give, especially with his limited defensive skills.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF) - The Pessimist: Michael (38); The Pack: Jeff (11), DVR (10), Kevin (7), Jason (10).

Our pessimist sees a player surrounded by a weak lineup who is being grossly overvalued for his home run potential. Consider this: Rotowire is projecting Stanton to put up the following line - .265 41 HR, 89 RBI, 86 R, 6 SB. The average line for the top 20 batters (excluding Stanton), is: .300 32 HR, 101 RBI, 100 R, 14 SB. Most teams would be dramatically improved by trading 9 homers for 12 RBI, 14 R, 8 stolen bases and .035 batting average points - meaning Stanton is not amongst his peer group. How different is he really from #31 Jay Bruce (.259 37 HR, 103 RBI, 86 R, 8 SB)? The pack concedes Stanton is a tough rank, especially given how the weak Marlins offense will affect his counting stats. But how can you overlook the home runs? Stanton works really hard at his craft, and presumably will be healthier this year. He could be the next batter to hit 50 dingers, which is great for any fantasy squad.

Alexei Ramirez (SS) - The Pessimist: DVR (NR); The Pack: Jeff (174), Michael (187), Kevin (170), Jason (192).

Our pessimist points to the drop-off in Ramirez's numbers last season, despite a similar batted ball profile to his career norms. Ramirez's ceiling simply isn't as high as we once believed and the rebound level is likely .270-.275 with double-digit homers and steals. The pack sees Ramirez as a capable middle infielder in a hitters' ballpark. He is extremely durable and bears an effortless glove at short. Both will provide him with enough slack to try for a rebound in 2013.

Players that Divided our Rankers into Two Camps

The players below split our rankers evenly, with half of the rankers taking an optimistic outlook on the player and the other half taking a more pessimistic view. Worth noting, the optimistic camp last year correctly predicted the NL MVP (Buster Posey) and AL Cy Young Award Winner (David Price).

Albert Pujols (1B) - Optimistic Camp: Jeff (6), Kevin (5), Jason (7);Pessimistic Camp: DVR (12), Michael (13).

The optimistic camp has sees Pujols as the single most reliable fantasy player over the last decade. He's durable, with the only health issue he's experienced (a minor knee injury) corrected this off-season. There's no reason that the marine layer should disproportionately hold him down compared to his teammates. If the first round is supposed to be about security, they see Pujols as as secure as it gets. The pessimistic camp feels that the last two seasons are much more indicative of what's to come than his previously elite levels. There's still a very good skill set here well worth investing an early selection in, but he's now (at least) 33-years-old and teams seem much less afraid of him than in years past (check out his declining walk rate for further proof of that point).

Brian McCann (C) - Optimistic Camp: DVR (118), Kevin (118);Pessimistic Camp: Jeff (185), Michael (205), Jason (158).

The optimists say that historically, this is a player who has been top-3 at his position. He's entering the prime of his career (would you believe he's only 28?) and if he had his typical season - .270 BA, 21 HRs, 75 RBI - a rank in the 120s is perfectly reasonable. The pessimists know that a return to those levels post-surgery is far from a guarantee. Take a look at how long it took B.J. Upton to shake off the rust from a torn labrum in 2009 (some might argue he still hasn't returned to who he was pre-surgery). Caveat emptor.

Jurickson Profar (SS) - Optimistic Camp: DVR (224), Kevin (252);Pessimistic Camp: Jeff (347), Michael (NR), Jason (NR).

The optimistic camp is quick to remind us that opportunity didn't appear likely to knock on Mike Trout's door a this time last year, and yea...the rest is already in the history books. The idea of ranking Profar ahead of guys who will clearly get playing time right out of the gate is to target high-upside guys who are one big injury or front office decision away from a prominent role. The pessimists remind us that Triple-A stats don't count in like 99.7% of fantasy baseball leagues. This is still quite a crowded depth chart in Texas. As it is, there's no clear path for Mike Olt let alone Profar, so we may have to wait another year to see Profar's potential.

All over the Place

For these players, there was absolutely no consensus, with rankings coming in literally all over the place.

Zack Greinke (SP) - Jeff (92), DVR (72), Michael (122), Kevin (65), Jason (125).

For the second year running, Greinke was one of the most divisive players on the list, with Kevin on the high end at 65 and Jason on the low end at 125. Last year, those rankings spanned from 34 to 108, so Greinke is definitely trending down year-over-year. The optimists recognize that they are Greinke apologists, and are not blind to the argument that he's had his Cy Young season and not much else around it. But they like that the move back to the National League will give him an opportunity to push his strikeout rate back into the batter-per-inning range (after that mark dipped to 7.9 K/9 following his trade to Anaheim). The pessimists cite his struggles with runners on base: in 2012, his BABIP with runners in scoring position was higher than it was with nobody on base. Given his well-publicized struggles with social anxiety disorder, it is a disturbing factoid.

Allen Craig (1B/OF) - Michael (24), Jason (29), Jeff (40), DVR (47), Kevin (58).

The optimists love that Craig qualifies at both 1B & OF and hits for a high average with slightly above average power when used as a first baseman. They see Craig as a player with a very stable skill set, a low floor, and smack in the middle of his prime producing years. The pessimists' biggest gripe with Craig is finding a season that he stays healthy and plays more than 130 games. The first base pool is very deep and it wouldn't surprise his detractors if five or more players at the position outproduce Craig for the season.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B) - Michael (18), Jeff (23), DVR (27), Jason (31), Kevin (47)

The optimists see in Goldschmidt a guy with emerging power who hits in the middle of the order in a great ballpark. He even runs a little. What's not to love? The pessimists say that Goldschmidt just inside the top-50 is as high as you can go. They don't think his base-stealing prowess is repeatable, and like with Craig, the deepness of the position makes him a risky play. There is simply too much hype around Goldschmidt for the down camp to burn that high of a pick on him.

And on with...

The List (Due to the size of this table, we've broken this down to two pages. These are the ranks from 1-175. You can see 176-350 here).

Rank	Full Name	Pos	Jeff	DVR	Michael	Kevin	Jason	Median
1	Ryan Braun	OF	1	1	1	2	1	1.0
2	Miguel Cabrera	3B	2	2	2	3	2	2.0
3	Mike Trout	OF	3	7	3	1	3	3.0
4	Matt Kemp	OF	4	3	4	4	4	4.0
5	Robinson Cano	2B	5	6	7	6	6	6.0
6	Andrew McCutchen	OF	7	8	5	11	5	7.0
7	Albert Pujols	1B	6	12	13	5	7	7.0
8	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	8	5	8	10	8	8.0
9	Joey Votto	1B	10	4	9	16	9	9.0
10	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	11	10	38	7	10	10.0
11	Prince Fielder	1B	14	9	14	9	11	11.0
12	Clayton Kershaw	SP	12	17	6	12	14	12.0
13	Jose Bautista	OF	9	16	10	19	12	12.0
14	Buster Posey	C	20	21	12	8	13	13.0
15	Justin Upton	OF	15	13	11	20	20	15.0
16	Justin Verlander	SP	13	18	15	14	19	15.0
17	Bryce Harper	OF	17	15	17	23	15	17.0
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	18	14	21	13	18	18.0
19	Stephen Strasburg	SP	19	11	31	18	30	19.0
20	Adrian Beltre	3B	16	22	29	21	16	21.0
21	Josh Hamilton	OF	27	25	22	17	17	22.0
22	Curtis Granderson	OF	22	50	16	43	25	25.0
23	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	26	29	32	22	21	26.0
24	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	23	27	18	47	31	27.0
25	Jason Heyward	OF	28	19	54	27	24	27.0
26	David Wright	3B	21	31	27	30	28	28.0
27	Evan Longoria	3B	35	20	51	28	27	28.0
28	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	29	39	19	39	22	29.0
29	David Price	SP	25	23	36	29	45	29.0
30	Adam Jones	OF	30	41	20	41	32	32.0
31	Jay Bruce	OF	32	30	42	54	26	32.0
32	B.J. Upton	OF	31	34	39	38	23	34.0
33	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	34	33	25	35	44	34.0
34	Starlin Castro	SS	33	40	34	32	37	34.0
35	Cliff Lee	SP	24	51	23	37	36	36.0
36	Ian Kinsler	2B	37	38	48	24	34	37.0
37	Billy Butler	1B	42	37	30	55	33	37.0
38	Dustin Pedroia	2B	38	32	40	26	47	38.0
39	Jose Reyes	SS	39	24	43	25	64	39.0
40	Allen Craig	OF	40	47	24	58	29	40.0
41	Hanley Ramirez	SS	36	42	59	15	41	41.0
42	Craig Kimbrel	CL	46	36	41	36	67	41.0
43	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	43	26	46	44	39	43.0
44	Cole Hamels	SP	44	46	37	40	49	44.0
45	Yadier Molina	C	45	59	45	68	35	45.0
46	Aramis Ramirez	3B	41	35	50	46	57	46.0
47	Chase Headley	3B	47	70	33	51	38	47.0
48	Carlos Santana	C	59	43	73	49	42	49.0
49	Jason Kipnis	2B	50	67	47	53	43	50.0
50	Freddie Freeman	1B	48	48	60	74	50	50.0
51	Felix Hernandez	SP	52	44	58	34	51	51.0
52	Matt Holliday	OF	53	52	49	52	60	52.0
53	Jered Weaver	SP	58	73	28	48	54	54.0
54	Mark Teixeira	1B	54	54	72	71	48	54.0
55	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	61	28	57	42	55	55.0
56	Matt Cain	SP	51	56	55	33	77	55.0
57	Joe Mauer	C	55	69	52	93	52	55.0
58	Brett Lawrie	3B	56	49	56	50	61	56.0
59	Alex Gordon	OF	66	53	44	111	56	56.0
60	Yu Darvish	SP	49	61	83	59	53	59.0
61	Madison Bumgarner	SP	64	60	61	61	79	61.0
62	Ben Zobrist	2B	62	64	77	45	89	64.0
63	Melky Cabrera	OF	76	45	35	84	65	65.0
64	Roy Halladay	SP	67	63	75	66	106	67.0
65	Anthony Rizzo	1B	57	81	68	78	40	68.0
66	Miguel Montero	C	69	89	63	76	62	69.0
67	Gio Gonzalez	SP	70	99	64	56	86	70.0
68	Matt Wieters	C	63	71	78	73	46	71.0
69	Michael Bourn	OF	71	106	53	87	63	71.0
70	Alex Rios	OF	89	138	71	70	69	71.0
71	Adam Wainwright	SP	65	57	82	72	73	72.0
72	Aaron Hill	2B	79	58	79	57	74	74.0
73	James Shields	SP	75	93	65	97	72	75.0
74	Desmond Jennings	OF	73	95	76	64	76	76.0
75	Chris Sale	SP	77	62	84	69	105	77.0
76	Kris Medlen	SP	74	87	26	85	78	78.0
77	Brandon Phillips	2B	60	78	80	63	80	78.0
78	Johnny Cueto	SP	72	92	74	80	108	80.0
79	Paul Konerko	1B	80	76	86	140	58	80.0
80	Jose Altuve	2B	87	68	66	81	95	81.0
81	Wilin Rosario	C	81	96	100	62	66	81.0
82	R.A. Dickey	SP	101	74	81	67	99	81.0
83	Eric Hosmer	1B	68	82	85	82	83	82.0
84	Jimmy Rollins	SS	82	79	117	60	103	82.0
85	CC Sabathia	SP	83	75	105	79	117	83.0
86	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	78	84	70	107	84	84.0
87	Jonathan Papelbon	CL	90	85	103	75	70	85.0
88	Austin Jackson	OF	85	83	67	101	93	85.0
89	Ryan Howard	1B	102	77	91	100	59	91.0
90	Hunter Pence	OF	98	117	62	91	87	91.0
91	Mark Trumbo	OF	95	122	88	88	91	91.0
92	Zack Greinke	SP	92	72	122	65	125	92.0
93	Ike Davis	1B	94	55	99	95	81	94.0
94	Jason Motte	CL	88	97	102	96	68	96.0
95	Danny Espinosa	2B	96	127	115	94	96	96.0
96	Ian Desmond	SS	84	113	98	31	104	98.0
97	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	93	91	101	98	134	98.0
98	Yovani Gallardo	SP	99	98	147	90	129	99.0
99	Carlos Beltran	OF	100	65	120	109	98	100.0
100	Max Scherzer	SP	97	100	143	83	116	100.0
101	Matt Moore	SP	123	86	186	92	100	100.0
102	Josh Willingham	OF	105	111	87	124	71	105.0
103	Pablo Sandoval	3B	104	66	113	105	114	105.0
104	Torii Hunter	OF	134	105	94	194	92	105.0
105	Jesus Montero	C	106	129	106	133	75	106.0
106	Chris Davis	1B	107	108	93	128	85	107.0
107	Angel Pagan	OF	108	137	69	166	94	108.0
108	Nick Swisher	OF	109	112	96	163	90	109.0
109	Fernando Rodney	CL	91	123	109	NR	82	109.0
110	Nelson Cruz	OF	112	110	92	125	88	110.0
111	Mariano Rivera	CL	103	94	119	129	110	110.0
112	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	111	131	110	77	182	111.0
113	Adam LaRoche	1B	117	104	111	NR	97	111.0
114	Aroldis Chapman	SP	133	115	97	102	166	115.0
115	Mike Napoli	C	86	130	89	116	127	116.0
116	Ian Kennedy	SP	136	124	104	119	113	119.0
117	Shane Victorino	OF	122	135	107	114	119	119.0
118	David Ortiz	DH	120	90	223	123	112	120.0
119	Carl Crawford	OF	121	80	142	99	132	121.0
120	Sergio Romo	CL	116	132	114	156	121	121.0
121	Nick Markakis	OF	142	116	112	146	123	123.0
122	Kyle Seager	3B	110	161	124	161	115	124.0
123	Rafael Soriano	CL	124	107	190	115	154	124.0
124	Elvis Andrus	SS	125	139	108	86	159	125.0
125	Norichika Aoki	OF	156	162	90	126	118	126.0
126	Rickie Weeks	2B	128	102	161	120	155	128.0
127	Brandon Morrow	SP	129	88	150	108	152	129.0
128	Salvador Perez	C	131	109	141	89	163	131.0
129	Martin Prado	OF	154	128	131	117	180	131.0
130	Kendrys Morales	1B	159	121	132	130	135	132.0
131	Josh Reddick	OF	151	175	130	132	122	132.0
132	Victor Martinez	C	138	133	176	103	126	133.0
133	Cameron Maybin	OF	137	134	125	207	124	134.0
134	J.J. Putz	CL	119	147	136	144	109	136.0
135	Dan Haren	SP	114	154	127	145	136	136.0
136	Pedro Alvarez	3B	132	103	192	151	137	137.0
137	Mat Latos	SP	115	140	138	106	140	138.0
138	Jonathan Lucroy	C	139	119	151	142	138	139.0
139	Jayson Werth	OF	141	158	121	NR	128	141.0
140	Adam Dunn	1B	172	142	224	136	142	142.0
141	Alejandro De Aza	OF	158	143	95	193	130	143.0
142	Will Middlebrooks	3B	145	151	129	104	149	145.0
143	Alfonso Soriano	OF	140	204	146	187	101	146.0
144	Mike Moustakas	3B	147	120	169	179	139	147.0
145	Coco Crisp	OF	148	152	118	174	120	148.0
146	Joe Nathan	CL	118	153	149	167	107	149.0
147	Derek Jeter	SS	130	149	116	NR	183	149.0
148	Grant Balfour	CL	143	178	152	181	147	152.0
149	Greg Holland	CL	127	177	153	172	133	153.0
150	Jim Johnson	CL	153	195	172	121	143	153.0
151	Jon Lester	SP	155	125	250	112	203	155.0
152	Jeff Samardzija	SP	165	156	166	141	156	156.0
153	C.J. Wilson	SP	150	141	181	157	160	157.0
154	Ryan Doumit	C	178	157	165	155	146	157.0
155	Brian McCann	C	185	118	205	118	158	158.0
156	Tom Wilhelmsen	CL	126	198	159	164	111	159.0
157	Andre Ethier	OF	170	159	126	148	165	159.0
158	Jon Niese	SP	113	181	160	188	151	160.0
159	Howie Kendrick	2B	161	160	148	137	191	160.0
160	Josh Johnson	SP	160	155	162	154	177	160.0
161	John Axford	CL	146	165	168	165	102	165.0
162	Justin Morneau	1B	149	101	171	191	167	167.0
163	David Freese	3B	167	172	139	131	178	167.0
164	Dayan Viciedo	OF	223	145	167	203	153	167.0
165	Brett Anderson	SP	168	167	184	162	215	168.0
166	Mike Morse	OF	152	234	174	127	169	169.0
167	Chase Utley	2B	162	170	199	122	211	170.0
168	Hiroki Kuroda	SP	135	196	144	NR	170	170.0
169	Doug Fister	SP	176	295	137	143	171	171.0
170	Ryan Ludwick	OF	182	173	158	231	131	173.0
171	Jason Kubel	OF	214	144	173	202	164	173.0
172	Joel Hanrahan	CL	173	217	219	160	168	173.0
173	Ryan Vogelsong	SP	164	296	156	209	173	173.0
174	Neil Walker	2B	166	183	145	176	174	174.0
175	Ben Revere	OF	190	201	123	149	175	175.0

NR = Not Ranked
Abst = Abstained from Ranking

Players with the same median were ranked secondarily by their average ranking. Players who were not ranked were assigned a ranking of 395.5 (the midpoint between 351 and 440, the total number of ranked players) for the purpose of computing the median and average.

So... let's hear it! Do you agree with the Pack or the Outlier? Are you in the Optimistic Camp or the Pessimistic Camp? Or are there any players here where our rankers were in alignment but you feel we all got it wrong?