This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Sunday, June 9
Happy Sunday! We have some Mets-Phillies early baseball in swinging London and end the day with Dodgers-Yankees. In between we get a full card, so let's find a couple winners!
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
Raise your hands if you expected to see an explosive Guardians offense in 2024? Going into the season it looked like Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and a bunch of middle-infield prospects spread out across the diamond backed by their usual solid pitching staff. Well, it turns out we had that all backwards. Shane Bieber went to Driveline, looked great on the mound for two starts and yada yada yada, we will see him again in 2025. Tanner Bibee has shown flashes of greatness, but otherwise it is a pretty pedestrian rotation.
The hitters have more than picked up the slack. Ramirez has led the way with a .272/.335/.553 to go with 18 homers and 61 RBI while Naylor has added 16 homers and 47 RBI, though just a .224 average. Statcast and his .202 BABIP suggest some bad fortune there as his xBA is .279. Beyond that, the Guardians are getting nice production from some unexpected sources. David Fry anyone? The versatile pop-up star has played catcher, corner IF and left field, and forced his way into near everyday at-bats with an absurd .336/.465/.598 line. He has eight homers in 155 plate appearances to go with a 15.5 percent BB rate that nearly equals his 18.1 percent K percentage. He will certainly regress, but he looks like 20-homer, 10-steal, .280 sort of versatile player. Cleveland has also gotten good production from the now-healthy Steven Kwan (.371 avg. and microscopic 8.3 percent K rate) and Andres Gimenez among others.
Carlos Carrasco will start, and he highlights the flip side of the Guardians this season; mediocre starting pitching. "Cookie" has had a stellar career, but at age 37 he has turned in just a 2-5 record on a good team with a 5.66 ERA and 1.5 WHIP. His 5.16 xERA and 4.5 SIERA suggest he is slightly unlucky, but his 10 percent SwStr% is his lowest since 2013. He induces a decent 46.8 percent GB rate, so his only real path to success is getting hard grounders at his infielders.
The Marlins pose a relatively mild threat. As a team, they carry an 82 wRC+, second worst in baseball, though they are a little less bad vs. righties at 88 wRC+. Josh Bell has heated up a bit with a .348 average and .381 wOBA since May 13, albeit with just two home runs in that timeframe. Jazz Chisholm remains Miami's best hitter, which says more about the shallowness of this lineup than his prowess as his overall line of .249/.317/.419 translates to just a 107 wRC+. He does carry some fantasy "juice" with eight homers and 12 steals.
Trevor Rogers pitches for the Marlins and he looks like a younger left-handed version of Carrasco with a 1-7 record and 5.68 ERA, 5.18 xERA, 4.60 package. Like Carraso, he has a low 17.4 percent K rate (Carrasco's is 17.9 percent) and induces an above average 49.5 percent GB rate.
The Pick
Over 9.0 runs (+102)
Cleveland hits lefties quite proficiently carrying a 115 wRC+ overall that is good for sixth best in the league. And the Indians have been money against southpaw starters, going 12-4 overall for a 33.5 percent ROI as per VSiN. They have cashed in on Overs as well to the tune of 10-4-2 and 31.8 percent ROI.
The Marlins, despite having a weak offense, have actually done well for totals bettors in spots like this. Miami Overs are 25-16-1, 16.0 percent ROI vs. righty starters and 23-11-2, 27.5 percent ROI when the Marlins are home.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
The Dodgers remain pretty much on cruise control to win the NL West, pretty much as the entire world expected. The matchup here features two teams with recent playoff success vs the LA behemoth. This year both remain firmly in the multi-team muddle for the fifth and sixth NL playoff slots.
This game will not exactly feature a battle of aces. The DBacks will start Scott McGough as an opener ahead of…..we will see. The DBacks need to patch together some pitching while they wait for the return of Zac Gallen (soon), Merrill Kelly (July?) and Eduardo Rodriguez (maybe sometime this season). The offense has kept the team afloat with a modest 101 wRC+ overall despite an impossibly rough start from their best player, Corbin Carroll. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year still has just a .262 wOBA 2.5 months into the season, with a .199 average and two homers. Ketel Marte (.282/.340/.508), Christian Walker (.253/.343/.456) and righty-mashing DH Joc Pederson .284/.383/.500) have picked up the slack.
The Padres counter with recent callup Adam Mazur, their top prospect as per James Anderson, and 59th overall in MLB. The bottom-line results were there in his debut on Tuesday as he went six innings and allowed just two hits and one earned run. He struck out only two batters vs. four walks.
The Padres offense stalled a bit earlier this week vs. the Angels, but encouragingly, Fernando Tatis Jr. has torn the cover off the ball lately. The superstar currently rides a 14-game hit streak, during which he has hit .421 with three homers on seven barrels, a .483 wOBA and 96.5 EV. Jurickson Profar (.322/.419/.491 with nine homers and 42 RBI) continues to rake as well.
The Pick
Diamondbacks +100 F5 Moneyline
Even after taking the last two games, the Padres have had an overall rough time on the F5 line at home, going 11-18-5 with a ghastly -31.5 percent ROI. The DBacks, on the other hand, have gone a respectable 15-16-3, 4.9 percent ROI on the road in the first five innings and 17-17-7, 4.3 percent vs. righties. I will stick with the trends here and back the DBacks with a little plus money.
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