Regan's Rumblings: Opening Week Observations

As of this writing, teams had played just 3-6 games, so logic tells us that we shouldn't read too much into the results. That's certainly true, for example, with players who are 0-for-10 but have a consistent track record of performance. Sometimes, though, there are observations to be had, and besides, we really can't help ourselves from completely tossing aside sample-size considerations and making broad and often bold predictions based on a small subset of data.  With that in mind, here are some observations I have after watching hours and hours of baseball over the last few days:

Worry about Zack Greinke but not Chris Sale (yet)

That Greinke put together a 3.71 ERA/23.7 K%/ 5.1 BB% last season despite his average fastball dropping from 91 mph to 89.6 mph was impressive. In the 2019 opener in Los Angeles, Greinke gave up four home runs (on six fly balls) while allowing seven runs in 3.2 rough innings. He had no command, and just 6.1 percent of his pitches went for swinging strikes (versus a 10 percent career rate). Greinke seems like the type of pitcher (good command/intelligent) who can succeed with a subpar fastball later in his career, but it's clear that if the command is off, the result won't be pretty. He'll probably bounce back in his next outing, but there will be more days like this.

Sale ruined my five-team Opening Day parlay, but he should recover.  Allowing three home runs (two to Tim Beckham) in T-Mobile Park (Seattle) was pretty shocking. Per FanGraphs, Sale's fastball averaged 92.2 mph, a full 2.5 mph slower than last year when a shoulder injury impacted his second half and playoffs. You'd have to think the Red Sox wouldn't have given him a $150 million extension if they had medical concerns, so for now, we'll chalk this one up to being one of those days. I know I'll be watching the radar gun in his next start, however.

Willians Astudillo needs regular playing time

Astudillo may have hit a so-so .276/.314/.469 last year in Triple-A, but after going 2-for-4 with two doubles, two runs and a pair of RBI in his 2019 debut, Astudillo is now hitting .368/.386/.547 in 101 career big league PA. At 5-foot-9 and a reported 225, he's fun to watch and he has a very interesting skillset. In his 101 PA, Astudillo has drawn two walks, but he's also struck out just three times for an approximately 3.0 K%. As a couple points of comparison, Vladimir Guerrero Sr. clocked in at 10.8 percent and Joe DiMaggio at 4.8 percent. Astudillo currently sits well down on the depth chart at multiple positions, but perhaps he'll see more starts at third base with Marwin Gonzalez off to a 1-for-7 start.

Cody Bellinger's swing looks different

Comparing Bellinger's current swing to last year's version, yes, he still swings a hard uppercut, but he's also a little less upright and his hands are lower. In theory (I'm not a hitting coach, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express recently) that should allow him to get bat to ball a bit quicker. Whatever he's doing, Bellinger looks locked in – .500/.524/1.100 with just two strikeouts in 21 PA. After losing 120 points off his NL ROY season, Bellinger looks like he's found his power stroke again. Also noteworthy is that manager Dave Roberts has said that Bellinger would play every day after posting a .681 OPS against southpaws last year and being a platoon guy for stretches of the season. It wouldn't shock me to see Bellinger return second-round fantasy value.

Tommy Pham is running

With two steals in his first four games, Pham is off to a nice start in that department after his steals dropped from 25 in 2017 to 15 last year.  He's hitting .333/.375/.333 with all five hits being singles, but after back-to-back 20-homer seasons, he should still reach that plateau this year. Now that it looks like 20-25 steals (more?) are likely could return fourth round value after seeing his ADP land at 61.

Maybe the Marlins actually got something in return for Marcell Ozuna

Sandy Alcantara was pretty impressive in his 2019 debut, holding the Rockies scoreless over eight innings to help his owners win some decent money on DraftKings. Alcantara had a career 6.2 BB/9 entering the start, but he walked none and struck out six while allowing just four hits. In addition to his 96 mph fastball, Alcantara notably mixed in his slider and curve a combined 46.2 percent of the time versus just 26.8 percent last year. Whether his body can hold up throwing that amount of breaking stuff remains to be seen, but maybe he's figured some things out. I think he'd be a lights-out reliever, but the Marlins are (rightfully) committed to developing him as a starter, and if he can continue the excellent control and command he showed last week, Alcantara could be a sneaky fantasy asset.

Still trying to figure out multiple closer situations

As usual, there is not a lot of early clarity in several closer situations. Let's look at a few briefly:

Kansas City – Ian Kennedy is in the fourth season of a disastrous five-year $75 million deal, and now that he's essentially a sunk cost, the Royals have moved him to the bullpen. He put in back-to-back scoreless appearances and looked to have moved atop the closer depth chart ahead of Brad Boxberger and Wily Peralta ... before blowing the save Tuesday. Still, for those who owned Corey Knebel (elbow) or otherwise didn't pay up for saves in this year's draft/auction, he's actually worth a look.

Minnesota – Most of us figured Trevor May would close, but now it looks like Taylor Rogers. Rogers recorded his first save March 28, and the lefty certainly has the stuff to stick in the role. Manager Rocco Baldelli seems like he's not going to go with a set bullpen hierarchy, so expect this situation to remain fluid. We could also see Blake Parker and Trevor Hildenberger in the mix.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs bullpen posted a 10.50 ERA through its first three games, and it was a true group effort, as presumed closer Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, and Carl Edwards Jr. allowed runs. As the team eagerly awaits the May return of Brandon Morrow (elbow), who gets the most chances this month is uncertain. I wouldn't be shocked to see Brandon Kintzler lead the team in saves this month.

Seattle – With Hunter Strickland (shoulder) on the shelf, this job is up in the air. Speculation has Cory Gearrin as next man up, but Gearrin walked three of the four batters he faced Sunday. Roenis Elias is also in the mix after his save Monday. My guess is fresh-off-the-IL Anthony Swarzak (shoulder), who nailed the save Tuesday, but watch the next few games closely.  

Atlanta – With the uncertainty around Arodys Vizcaino's shoulder, I'd grab A.J. Minter (shoulder) where possible. Minter should return this week and may close right away.

Baltimore – With one good and one poor outing combined with a manager who hasn't named a closer, Mychal Givens' status is very much up in question. Because the Orioles don't exactly have Gregg Olson and Zack Britton waiting in the wings, anyone could emerge. Richard Bleier earned his first career save Tuesday. Miguel Castro is the team's best reliever, but they seem to prefer him in a multi-inning role. Don't rule out Mike Wright Jr. either.  Wright has a career 5.70 ERA in 230.1 big league innings, but he also notched the save Saturday.

Pump the breaks on the Tim Beckham hype train

Through six games, Beckham has put up a lofty .435/.519/.913 slash, but unless there was a reason BEFORE the season that you saw some monster year coming, six games really shouldn't change the prevailing opinion that the 29-year-old is what he has always been – a .250/.300/.440 type of hitter with some power, but with significant downside considering his 28.1 career K%. One thing to keep an eye on is his walk rate, which is 14.8 percent this year versus the sub-7 percent marks he's posted each year prior. If he's truly seeing the ball better, that helps his ROS projections. Typically, we don't see No. 1 overall picks suddenly figuring things out as they approach 30. Either they are great right away (Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez), are total busts (Matt Bush, probably Micky Moniak, and going way back, Shawn Abner), or they have decent careers but fail to live up to their draft status (Pat Burrell, Dansby Swanson).

Watch these metrics     

Outside of counting stat observations such as Trea Turner's three- steal game and Domingo Santana's 10 RBIs in six games, a number of other numbers stand out as I look at the early results:

Yoan Moncada's 14.3 K% - Considering his 33.4 percent mark last year was third highest in the league behind (you guessed it) Joey Gallo and Chris Davis, this is a shocking number. It's led to Moncada posting a 1.269 OPS through six games. It's also funny to think that some folks are saying that maybe he's "finally" figuring things out. Moncada is 23.

Nomar Mazara's .333/.400/.889 vs. LHP – OK, so it's 10 plate appearances, but after hitting .238/.282/.395 against southpaw's last year, this is a nice start. He also has a 2:4 K:BB after posting a 0.34 BB/K in 2018. At 24, he could take a leap forward this year.

Ronald Acuna (0 K%, 23.1 BB%) – Unbelievably, some  are already panicking because Acuna is hitting .200 with no homers through three games. Don't be one of those guys.

Jose Peraza's 100 percent hard hit rate – It's just seven at-bats, but Peraza is hitting the ball hard and in the air (0 GB%). Like all numbers in this section, it's not sustainable, but good to see nonetheless. Peraza did hit five of his 14 homers last year in September, so perhaps 20-plus homers are in his future.

Yasiel Puig's 66.7 percent opposite field hit rate – It's only two games, but if Puig is hitting the ball to the opposite field, that's likely a good sign. He's 0-for-8, but he also has a couple walks, and the hits will start falling. I still think a big year is on tap.

Zack Wheeler's 97 mph average baseball – It's a number that has gone from 94.6 to 95.9 and now 97 mph the last three years. Wheeler started the season slowly with a five-inning, four-run outing, but he also struck out seven and remains to me a dark horse Cy Young candidate.

Lucas Giolito's 1.35 BB/9, 10.8 K/9 – So it was against the Royals, but I just wanted a chance to talk some Giolito. Perhaps no other pitcher has burned me as much the last couple years, so I own zero Giolito shares. Seems like a good time for the 24-year-old to have a huge season, right? As bad as he's been (also an 8.84 ERA this spring), it's tough believe in a pitcher after one start against a team with a heart of the order that includes Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Ryan O'Hearn, and Lucas Duda.

Matthew Boyd's -0.34 FIP, 5.40 ERA – Just learned it's possible to have a negative FIP. In Boyd's first start, he walked one, allowed no home runs and struck out 10 in five innings, but also allowed three runs. With that sort of strikeout upside, I would not be surprised to see a 3.50 ERA at the end of the year with 200-plus strikeouts. If he can locate his 90-92 mph fastball, Boyd has one of the league's better slider, and that could be enough for a leap forward.