Regan's Rumblings: In the News

Anyone buying Trevor Plouffe's tweet about baseball opening back up on June 2 for Spring Training and July 1 for Opening Day? Trust me, I would love for this to be true, but until someone like Ken Rosenthal reports it, its just a rumo. Plouffe doubled down on this in a follow-up tweet, but I looked for the list of huge stories that Plouffe has broken in the past, and the list is invisible (please prove me wrong, I'd love it).

What I won't be tackling this week: Korean baseball. Anyone watch yet? I haven't had time, but I imagine I'll tune in this weekend out of curiosity. If anyone is dying for my takes on Dan Straily, Aaron Altherr, or Ji Hyuk Ryu, let me know and I'll see what I can do. 

One thing I did note that is interesting as a Dodgers fan is that the Kia Tigers have a SS/3B named Chan Ho Park. It's not Dodger legend Chan Ho, but who can forget these two indelible baseball moments:

1.      Giving up two grand slams in one inning to Fernando Tatis Sr.  Pretty sure this record will never be broken. With how bullpens are utilized today, I'd be similarly shocked if it were ever tied.

2.      Going Jackie Chan on Tim Belcher.

Anyway, I hope everyone and their families are staying safe these days. I'm not a huge work-from-home guy, so I have a bit of cabin fever, but my job is intact and we're all healthy in my house, so it's all good.

This week, I thought I'd touch on some of the recent player news. Of course, with the lockdown, such news has been limited, but some has trickled out.

Positive news for Aaron Judge (ribs) and Aaron Hicks (elbow)

Both now appear to have a shot at Opening Day, assuming that happens in July. Hicks is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is throwing from 90 feet and hitting soft-toss pitching. That's great news, and considering he's about a month and a half from the low end of his 8-10-month timetable, it at least gives him a shot at being ready for the start of the season.  Meanwhile, Judge's status is a bit less clear. He's set to undergo a CT scan in a couple weeks to see where his ribs are at health wise. The CT scan would seem to indicate that he's still feeling discomfort, so the possibility remains that the scan could result in his timetable being pushed back, so we can't quite conclude on anything until the scan.

Let's assume both are ready at least around the start of July. What would the Yankees' outfield/DH situation look like?

Left field – This looks to be Brett Gardner assuming Hicks mans center field. Gardner could sit against some or most lefties, against whom he hit just .212/.268/.386 last year, but an .892 OPS against RHP should guarantee him plenty of playing time. It's tough to expect him to return to last year's power production (28 HR), but he should still be good for 20-25 homers and 10-15 steals (prorated). On the days that Gardner doesn't play, I expect we'd see Miguel Andujar in left field despite his probable 5 defensive rating in Strat-o-Matic. Andujar is reportedly only going to play third base, left field and DH this season. He will still have to compete with 2019 breakout Mike Tauchman in left, Giancarlo Stanton at DH and Gio Urshela at third, but is Stanton really going to stay healthy? Are Tauchman and Urshela for real? It's certainly possible to see Andujar finding semi-regular playing time, but he'll have to hit well early to be fantasy relevant.

Center Field – Hicks is owed $62 million over the next six years, so I'll go out on a limb and say he's the guy if healthy. This being the Yankees, though, if he's abysmal, I doubt they have an issue with making him an expensive bench player. In that case, or in the event Hicks isn't ready to go early, we would probably see plenty of Tauchman in either left or center. After the Rockies kicked the 29-year-old to the curb, he responded by hitting .277/.261/.504 in 296 PA with the Yankees in 2019. Injuries gave him what was probably his last chance at having any sort of career, and he certainly took advantage. The lefty swinger even hit .357/.446/.529 versus southpaws, so he probably deserves a look as an everyday player, but once again, it does seem he'll need injuries to crop up to accrue any sort of significant fantasy value.

Right Field – This is Judge, of course, but the 28-year-old has played just 112 and 102 games in the last two seasons. Is he injury-prone? Seems that way. Maybe he puts the injuries aside and plays a full season, but if not, who benefits? Again, it would seem to be Tauchman. If multiple players are hurt, it comes down to Andujar or even Clint Frazier possibly benefitting. Frazier is still just 25, but in parts of three MLB stints (429 PA), he's hit just .254/.308/.463, though last year was at least a bit better at .267/.317/.489. Still nothing special for a contender, and with multiple superior options ahead of him, it's tough to see Frazier having much of a 2020 impact barring multiple injuries.

Remembering Michael Fulmer

The Tigers have a lot of exciting young pitchers working through the ranks, including Casey Mize and Matt Manning, but is Fulmer even worth considering in deeper leagues? The 27-year-old is a former top prospect and was the 44th pick in the 2011 draft. He made his way to the big leagues in 2016, starting 29 total games that season (26 with the Tigers) before various injuries limited him to 25 in 2017 and 24 with the Tigers in 2018. Then Tommy John surgery wiped out all last season, but now, 14 months removed from surgery, Fulmer still isn't ready to face live hitters. Fulmer is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season, so the Tigers likely will play it safe and let him rehab slowly before bringing him back. Even if he does return this year, I can't imagine him contributing much. If you're in a VERY deep league with IL spots, go ahead and take a look, but don't expect much this year.

A Healthy James Paxton?

According to a report from manager Aaron Boone this week, Paxton appears to be fully healthy after dealing with a back injury. He was cleared to pitch in a simulated game Monday and should be ready to go when and if the season resumes this summer. The 31-year-old southpaw has yet to make more than 29 starts in a season, averaging 25 starts a year since 2016. At this point in his career, expecting an injury-free season is wishful thinking, but when healthy, he's been excellent. Since 2017, Paxton has a 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. He maintained his velocity last year, averaging a healthy 95.5 mph with his fastball and striking out 29.4 percent of the hitters he faced. We have Paxton 85th in our custom rankings for starting pitchers, but he could find himself in the top 30 pretty easily if the IL stints are minimized.

Lane Thomas, Sleeper

Thomas this week received rave reviews from a pair of Cardinals coaches, Willie McGee and Bernard Gilkey, both of whom had pretty good careers with the organization. The Cardinals' starting outfield projects as Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler. That's a whole lot of questions, particularly offensively. You also have Tommy Edman who could get some time there when he's not playing the hot corner. Then further, you have top prospect Dylan Carlson looking to break through. Still, Thomas is at least interesting. The 24-year-old can play center field, which is helpful, and in his 44 PA MLB debut last year, he hit a strong .316/.409/.684 after homering in his first at-bat. His Triple-A resume is less impressive, however, with a decent .270/.343/.472 in 107 career games with 16 homers and 15 stolen bases. There was a report earlier this spring that Thomas was pushing O'Neill in left field, so in deeper leagues, don't rule him out, especially with expanded rosters.

A Healthy Alex Verdugo

Verdugo has benefitted from the shutdown, using the extra time to get his back healthy and this week, he declared himself to be 100 percent healthy. Oblique and back injuries limited Verdugo last season, but he did still manage to hit a solid .294/.342/.475 in 377 PA, including 12 home runs and four steals. There was talk about platooning Verdugo with a guy like Kevin Pillar, but Verdugo hit .327/.358/.485 against southpaws, and though he's not as strong defensively perhaps as Pillar, the offensive upside should keep him in the lineup early and often. Verdugo has been projected to hit in the six-spot in the lineup, which probably isn't ideal, but his on-base skills could result in his moving up in the order.