Oak's Corner: Tatis Beasting Early On

The Week That Was

After we all woke up to negative baseball news every day for eight or nine days in a row, most of the stories over the past few days have been actually related to baseball, and even the Cardinals Covid breakout has had some positive news the last couple days. Of course, the other shoe could drop at any point, but as of now (Thursday night), Friday is scheduled to be just the third time we get all 30 teams playing on the same day. I'm sure there will be many other hiccups along the way, but it has been nice to think about closer meltdowns and starters getting lit up this week rather than if games will be canceled.

I have spoken often here and on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast of the need to adapt with the short season in terms of drafting, free agency and roster management, but I admit I'm struggling with this so far. I tend to use the first month of the season to figure out the makeup of each team I manage as well as figuring out its strengths and weaknesses. I then use the next four months to try and mold those teams into efficient and thriving squads, and then try and hang on in the madness of September.

That plan clearly won't work in 2020, yet I still find myself underbidding a little bit in FAAB and holding guys I liked for a reason on draft day despite underperformance and injury. There's a fine line between aggression and overreaction, and I think I'm still too far away from that line as I have played a touch too conservatively. As we finish this weekend of games, many teams (not all, of course) will be around 15 games, which works out to exactly a quarter of the season, which is usually around May 15, and that's when I do a full-scale initial look at my teams and figure out how to fix them or keep them thriving. It feels weird to be doing that this early, but I'm going to sit down this weekend and do just that because the season isn't slowing down, and the time to make decisions on struggling players and figuring out which direction to steer your team is now.

Early in the preseason, there was a lot of buzz that Fernando Tatis would end up moving into the top 10 in drafts, but the risers from the early second round ended up being Jose Ramirez and Mike Clevinger instead, as Tatis' ADP in 38 NFBC Main Event Drafts ended up just short of 18. If the first quarter of the season is any indication, Tatis is a sure-fire first-rounder next year and might be making a case to crack top five. On top of that, he is quickly laying claim to the most exciting player in the game.

Through his first 13 games, Tatis is hitting a solid .294 and already has four homers and four stolen bases while amassing 13 RBI. The strikeout rate is a big issue at 35 percent after it ended up near 30 percent last year, but he is also walking a lot more so far at 15 percent. Of course, Statcast numbers can be very skewed with such a small sample, but his are absurd as he leads the league in average exit velocity and he currently has a comical 66.7 percent hard hit rate.

So while the stats are good, there's some concern in the profile, but more than anything from this first couple weeks, it's that Tatis is absolute must see TV anytime he steps to the plate. I often watch the grid channel, and even though I don't have Tatis on either of my most important leagues, I often find myself flipping to the Padres game on the full screen when he strolls to the plate. Crazily, Tatis is still only 21, and the upside is just about limitless, and I regret not putting him in the top 12 of my fantasy rankings this season.

FAAB Feelings

Randy Dobnak – Dobnak was snagged in a number of 15-teamers last week and our own Jeff Erickson was aggressive about attacking him in FAAB in the Main Event. Dobnak got slotted into the rotation when Jake Odorizzi went on the Injured List right before the season, and even though Odorizzi is nearing his return, Dobnak has solidified his spot in the rotation both due to how well he has pitched and injuries to Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. Dobnak is only owned in 25 percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues, but that is about to change with a scheduled two starts this week against the Brewers in Milwaukee and a home start against the Royals. The Brewers have started slow, and, while I still don't love to throw a starter in Miller Park, Dobnak is a start for me where I have him rostered especially since he has a second start against Kansas City. He's a definite bid where he's still available. While he's never going to be a high strikeout guy for your fantasy roster (he had a strikeout rate around 7.3 K/9 across four minor league levels in 2019), he does induce a ton of ground balls with his sinker that has sharp downward movement, which he throws more than any other pitch in his repertoire. He currently sports a 64 percent ground ball so far this year and has regularly posted percentages in the 50s in the minor leagues. The 0.60 ERA is clearly an aberration, but I have watched him pitch and think he is going to be solid (not great), and pitching in front of this Twins offense is a really nice way to get some wins if he can just manage to get through five innings.

Alex Dickerson – The Giants were popular this week in FAAB as they had a four-game set in Coors to start the week, but my interest in Dickerson comes into play for the rest of the season. By many accounts locally, the closing of the arches in right field where you could be outside the stadium and look in (they closed it to avoid people congregating there to watch games) has changed the way the ball carries to right field in Oracle Park; obviously good news for a lefty like Dickerson.

Dickerson likely will still sit against most lefties, but finds himself hitting second against righties and has been hitting the ball really well when he's in the lineup. Dickerson already has five barrels and ranks above the 90th percentile so far this year in both barrel rate (18.5 percent) and average exit velocity (92.6 mph). Dickerson only played 68 games last year but had some solid hard hit metrics in his limited time with a 43.6 percent hard hit rate.

With a seemingly better home park dynamic from prior years in San Francisco, lefties might not have quite the power crushing issues they have had in the past (fine, take out Barry Bonds) and if you're in a deep league and need a first baseman, this may bring back Brandon Belt from the fantasy graveyard, too. Dickerson is readily available in NFBC 12-teamers at only 24 percent owned, and while he is 90 percent owned in the 15-teamers due to the Coors week, I would watch my waiver wire to see if he's dropped this week. I think Dickerson is a solid matchup play when the Giants face righties with his batted ball skills, and definitely someone I'd roster in a league with daily moves.

A Closer Look

After an absolutely chaotic week of closer madness in free agency last weekend, there was still a good amount of upheaval this week. It seems to be mellowing out a good deal as new guys settle into jobs and some veterans have stabilized after a rough start.

In Anaheim, Hansel Robles has had a complete disaster of a first two weeks, and while I still think the Angels would like to get him back in the ninth inning, they're currently in a situation where they're looking at other options. Robles has made five appearance in the early season, with three of those resulting in multiple runs allowed. His breakout last year included a drastic drop in his walk rate to under two walks per nine, and also saw his fastball velocity jump to 97.1 mph. The walks are back up this season, but it's been only 4.1 innings. I wouldn't really react to a couple extra walks, but the velocity drop has to be a concern, as his fastball velocity currently sits at 94.5 mph.

If the Angels do decide to make a move, there's no clear cut closer in waiting, but the most recent Angels opportunity went to Ty Buttrey on Tuesday night. Buttrey locked down the four-out save without allowing a baserunner and probably earned himself the next save spot, while Robles tries to get things right. Buttrey was a solid option for the Angels last year out of the pen with an ERA just under 4.00, and he struck out 10.5 batters per nine with a walk rate under 2.9 BB/9. I still think Robles gets another shot at getting back the job, but if I speculate here, it would be with a bid on Buttrey if he snuck through free agency last week. He did in many leagues, as he's available in almost 40 percent of NFBC Main Events and more than 85 percent of the 12-team leagues. If you don't like Buttrey, the other interesting stab here in deeper leagues is Felix Pena, who has ramped up his strikeout rate and velocity since converting from a starter to a reliever last season, and those gains have continued in 2020.

We discussed the Cardinals a couple of weeks ago when Kwang-Hyun Kim surprisingly was inserted into the closer role after losing out on a spot in the starting rotation. With Carlos Martinez hitting the Injured List (it appears he was one of the Covid positives for St. Louis), Kim is now back in the rotation, although how long that lasts probably depends not only on how quickly Martinez can return but how Kim pitches as a starter and whether Martinez is ramped back up as a starter at all.

While I keep thinking Giovanny Gallegos should and could get the job, it doesn't appear the Cardinals agree, and manager Mike Shildt mentioned four names as part of a committee (Gallegos was in there) at the moment. I would still hold or bid on Gallegos and also Ryan Helsley, but I'll watch this weekend to see not only what happens if they get a save opportunity, but also check the box scores to see in which order relievers are used. If you drafted Carlos Martinez, he's a really tough decision this week, as we have no indication how long he may be out or if he has any symptoms. I'm hoping, but not expecting, to get some news from the team as they resume action this weekend. If he were definitely ramping up to come back as a starter, he'd be an easy drop for me in this short season, but with the chance they could slot him into the back end of the bullpen and thus shorten his ramp up period significantly, he's a much tougher drop decision than would be a normal middle tier starter.

Series of the Weekend

Astros at A's – We have some interesting series this weekend with Cubs-Cardinals and Yankees-Rays on the docket, but I have to stick out West with my A's hosting the, let's call them controversial, Astros. The Astros have suffered a number of long-term injuries already this year, including to their ace and closer, but are still hanging in there pretty well at 6-6 (would have been better but Ryan Pressly just blew a save to the Diamondbacks) and still are the team the A's need to get past to win the division. The A's have struggled on offense to start the year but have gotten excellent pitching from most of their starters and just about all their bullpen, and they enter this series on a six-game winning streak.

The wild thing with the A's success so far is a quick check of their stats sees Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Khris Davis all hitting under .200 so far. Of course, it's too early for a batting average to really matter, but if you had told me all four of those guys came out of the gate scuffling to that degree, I sure would have thought the A's would have a really poor record. While Davis might have an issue because he's not playing every day, I'm not too worried about the other three. While Olson's three homers over the last two games likely make him difficult to grab in a trade, I'd love to use Chapman's slow start to grab him in a trade. Chapman has looked a bit lost and struck out too much, but with three years of a declining strikeout rate, I'm not too worried about that in a small sample. I do like how he's still hitting the ball hard when he does make contact. He is currently carrying a 48.4 percent hard hit rate and a 12.9 barrel rate, and the production is coming, especially when the rest of the order gets going, too. If the player who drafted Chapman expresses any concerns about the slow start, I would jump in for any level of discount.

After Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers (and wow, wasn't Wednesday ugly for Lance who apparently isn't a fan of open air stadiums), the Astros pitching staff is full of nonhousehold names and the team ERA is in the bottom half of baseball as a result. However, their offense does still have a ton of stars and has picked up the pitching staff in a big way, ranking in the top five in baseball in runs scored. While Jose Altuve and George Springer have sputtered early, the much maligned Carlos Correa (maligned mostly due to injuries) has sprinted out of the gate, hitting .386 through his first 51 plate appearances.

Since Correa's huge rookie season during which he mashed 22 homerS and stole 14 bases in 99 games, a lot of people have expected a huge breakout season from Correa each year, yet he has never topped 24 homers and hasn't stolen double digit bags since 2016. The 2019 season was a frustrating year for Correa with the injury resulting from a massage (still weird) limiting him to only 73 games, but there were some really good signs when he did play. In those 73 games, he hit 21 homers and drove in 59 runs while making a lot of loud contact with a 42.2 percent hard hit rate to go with a 13 percent barrel rate. Correa's first big season since his rookie year was a bit hidden due to injuries last year, but if he can find a way to stay healthy in 2020, he's looking like someone where the draft price, finally deflated after another injury-ridden campaign, is going to end up a significant value.