This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks & Best Bets for
Friday, May 24
In the 2022 season, the New York Yankees needed 69 games to win 50 games marking the fastest to 50 wins in the past 20 seasons. This season, the Philadelphia Phillies are off to a historic 37-14 start, but still need to win 13 of their next 17 games to win 50 in just 68 games. That is going to be tough to accomplish, but the Phillies are playing one game at a time and have the best starting pitching ERA and scoring the most runs per game in MLB so anything is possible right now.
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Best Bets, San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are off to another great start to their season, posting a 35-17 record good for a three-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East Division race. From a sports-betting perspective, the Yankees have averaged a –147 favorite using the moneyline, resulting in a 14.1 percent ROI ranking fourth-most profitable overall and making a $12,940 profit for the Dime Bettor this season. The total in their games has gone 28-22-2 Under for 56 percent winning bets, resulting in an 8% ROI and a $5,930 profit for the Dime Bettor.
Tonight's opponent for the Yankees are the San Diego Padres, who have gone 27-26 on the season and like so many previous seasons bask in the shadows of the LA Dodgers' Tinsel Town lights. They are in second place and trail the Dodgers by 6.5 games and would be the third and last wild card team if the season ended today.
The Padres have averaged a –117 wager using the moneyline resulting in a money-losing –5.8 percent ROI and causing the Dime Bettor a $-2,240 loss. The total has gone 28-24-1. producing a 0.0 percent ROI on the season.
Which Team is Favored to Win and How Many Runs are Expected?
This is the first game of a three-game interleague series with the first game scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET tonight at Petco Park in San Diego. The weather is expected to be perfect, with a game-time temperature of 68 degrees.
The betting market has the Yankees priced as a modest –115 favorite to win this game and the total is priced at 7.5 runs reflecting the strong starting pitching matchup. In road games the Yankees have averaged a –110 wager using the moneyline, so the current price is in-line with expectations.
Who Are the Starters for This Game?
For the Padres, Yu Darvish will be on the hill, and he is 4-1 in nine starts with an elite-level 2.08 ERA and 0.902 WHIP, including 46 strikeouts and just 13 free passes spanning 47.2 innings of work this season. Over his last three starts, he has not allowed an earned run, going 3-0 with a 0.526 WHIP, including 21 strikeouts and just three walks spanning 19 innings of work. For the season, he is 3-1 in six night starts with a sparkling 2.05 ERA and a 0.913 WHIP, including 30 strikeouts and nine walks spanning 30.2 innings of work. So, the 12-year veteran starter Darvish is pitching the best baseball of his career right now.
Darvish has been successful against the Yankees, posting a 3-2 record in seven career starts with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP. He has had only one start against the Yankees since 2017 and that was not a good one. He allowed seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2023. The good news is that this game is at Petco Park, and that he is a vastly better pitcher than he was last season.
The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who is 5-2 in starts with a solid 2.95 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP, including 66 strikeouts and just 16 walks spanning 55 innings of work. The 10-year veteran is in top form with a 3-0 record over his last three starts with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP, and has averaged 6.1 innings per start. He has faced the Padres three times and has gone 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP spanning 19 innings of work.
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The Betting Algorithm for Friday
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 29-14 record for 67 percent winning bets that have averaged a –116 wager resulting in a 26 percent ROI and making a $13,790 profit for the Dime Bettor over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:
Bet on home teams priced between a 125 underdog and –125 favorite using the moneyline.
The road team is starting a pitcher in excellent form having not allowed an earned run in his three previous starts.
If the game is the first game of a series these road teams have gone an outstanding 9-3, averaging a –122 wager resulting in a 40 percent ROI and making a $5,700 profit for the Dime Bettor.
The Friday Best Bet to make is on the San Diego Padres boxed with Yu Darvish priced at -110 or better using the moneyline.
The Best Bet Player Prop Bets for Friday Action
- The Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run yesterday. He has averaged 0.94 hits, 0.24 home runs, and 1.832 total bases following a game in which he hit a home run since joining the Yankees.
- Bet the Padres' Fernando Tatis to score a run at a price of +100.
- The Padres' Luis Arraez had four hits in his previous game and following a game in which he had three or more hits he has averaged 2.5 hits and 3 total bases.
- Bet over 2.0 or more hits priced at +190.
- Bet over 1.5 total bases priced at +150 total bases.
