Mound Musings: Time to Pull the Chute?

Another month has passed, and we are now into June. This is typically the time I try to sort through my pitching staff and take a good, long look at any underperformers. One-third of the way through the season, meaning most starting pitchers have taken about 10 turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any mechanical issues, or get healthy, or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season where I need a viable reason to accept poor performance.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "what was I thinking?" as we reflect on draft day. Next week, I think, we'll flip the coin and I'll throw out some pitchers who have posted really impressive numbers so far but might see a major dip (or continued success). Keep in mind, fantasy relies on what's coming next.

Let's take a look at some significant underperformers:

Luis Castillo (Reds, 1-8, 7.22 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) – This spring, Castillo was a popular target, as fantasy owners tried to build deep and reliable rotations in anticipation of a challenging year. Not surprisingly, he ended up being a No. 1 or No. 2 SP on many rosters. He was battered by the Cardinals on Opening Day – okay, ouch, but it happens – but then spun seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh in his next start. There we go. Well, not exactly. He has been subpar in nine consecutive starts since. I have watched a few of his outings. I have read the assessments of many other analysts, and none of us have a definitive answer. His command is spotty, leading to more walks, and worse, he is very hittable. In particular, his usually very challenging change-up has been routinely hammered. Maybe he's tipping his pitches? He has displayed a quality repertoire in the past, but 11 starts into the season, it's becoming a distant memory. With no positive path, I can't recommend him. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Dylan Bundy (Angels, 0-6, 6.49 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) – Long time readers know one of my favorite angles is what I call the "changes in latitudes" angle. Bundy was a prime candidate. He went from an organization, the Orioles, with a history of struggling to develop young pitchers, to the Angels, a team with an exciting nucleus, hoping to make a run at the playoffs with a bolstered rotation. The initial returns in 2020 were encouraging, but it seems the clock has struck midnight, and Bundy has turned back into a pumpkin. He has served up 12 homeruns in just 52 innings, and he tends to give up those big flies at the most inopportune times. He has quite a bit of upside, so he will no doubt continue to occasionally tease us, but he's not usable until he can display consistency. Perhaps he just landed at the wrong latitude. Poor pitching has been the bane of the Angels for years, and the new faces haven't helped much. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, 3-4, 6.23 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) – He has given owners quite the rollercoaster ride to begin 2021.He has made 10 starts, with six fireworks shows, and four quality starts. As I have mentioned in a couple previous editions of the Musings, the most frustrating part is you usually can tell what you will get today after only a few pitches. If he is spotting the fastball for effect and the slider is crisp as it darts out of the strike zone at the last second, sit back and enjoy the game. If those things aren't happening, you might want to switch channels. His velocity has been up and down, and his command has been very erratic. Those both suggest a need for major mechanical adjustments, but there has been time enough to accomplish that. One side of me says be patient, but the other side says your ERA and WHIP can't take many more of those meltdowns. I still own some shares of Corbin, so I'm probably a bit biased, but I can make an argument either way on how to proceed. Verdict: Hung jury.

Kenta Maeda (Twins, 2-2, 5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) – Many analysts predicted significant regression for Maeda in 2021, following a very impressive shortened 2020 season. The predictions were understandable. Several analytics suggested his peripherals were unsustainable. I agreed, but only to a point. Now, the doomsayers may feel vindicated. However, eyes on analysis might tell another story. His velocity has been down a tick, his normal pinpoint command has been less reliable, and his breaking pitches have not been as sharp, so the poor start isn't too surprising. Not surprising, true, but perhaps they are explainable. Maeda has dealt with a sore arm all season, and more recently he suffered a groin strain. I recommend letting him get healthy (he is expected back later this month), and see how it goes. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox, 5-4, 5.64 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) – Rodriguez has given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. As a painful point of reference, Jacob deGrom has allowed a total of four earned runs all season. The Red Sox weren't expected to be that good this year, but many thought E-Rod would be the leader of their rotation. Pretty much the opposite has happened, and I think his subpar performance is at least partially explainable. To me, Rodriguez has just okay stuff, and he becomes more vulnerable as he pitches deeper into games, something he is expected to do at the top of their rotation. He is a pretty solid No. 4 our No. 5, but he is probably miscast as a No. 1, so his fantasy value is limited. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Madison Bumgarner (Diamondbacks, 4-5, 5.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) – He suffered through a forgettable 2020 and then was battered early on this year, but he then put together a stretch of six consecutive strong starts from mid-April to mid-May before being roughed up again in a couple recent outings. And, he left his last start suffering from shoulder soreness. Mad Bum is only 31, but his arm (as well as his back and the rest of his body) has a lot of miles on it. Injuries were a huge part of his velocity dropping (down almost four mph in 2020), and I think he struggled to adjust to pitching with diminished stuff. That said, he may have struggled, but he also learned a lot, and I think he might end up being a better pitcher because of it. He is actually a true ace when everything is in rhythm, and even though the Diamondbacks aren't very good, I look for better things ahead for him. Verdict: Hold onto him.

A Couple Minor League Prospects to Assess:

We also need to track top pitching prospects currently working in the minor leagues, something we couldn't do last season with no minor league baseball. I am a bit less likely to "pull the chute" on pitching prospects, primarily because they probably are still in the minors to refine their mechanics, striving to achieve a more repeatable delivery, culminating in better command. That was greatly impacted by the debacle of 2020. No competitive pitching, in many cases, put development on hold for a full year. At least now we have games being played; albeit about a month behind MLB. This is good time to check in on some of the top prospects.

Most of the top pitching prospects on my list are actually struggling a bit right now. Since 2019, MacKenzie Gore has been No. 1 on my list. He has pitched just 17 innings (four starts) for Triple-A El Paso, compiling a 5.94 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP. That's nothing to brag about, but, like the other guys here, the sample size is far too small to panic. Plus, Gore has had some blister issues and had his last start skipped. The next guy on my list is Nate Pearson who has split time between Triple-A Buffalo and the Blue Jays. Like Gore, he is trying to make up for lost time, working on refining his command, and it's been a challenge so far. Further, health has been an issue, as he missed some time with what is being described as minor shoulder inflammation. Miami's Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) has yet to pitch in 2021, and just suffered a setback, while Matt Manning has served up 10 home runs in 22 innings for Triple-A Toledo. Nothing too encouraging, but it's way too early to make any drastic changes in the pecking order.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I still love Dinelson Lamet. His stuff is still electric – especially that filthy slider. Unfortunately, he can't be a fantasy asset until he can get deeper into games. He tossed 72 pitches (only four innings) in his last outing, so he's getting closer. I need to see him up around 90-plus pitches to declare him good to go.
• Cleveland's Triston McKenzie continues to tease us. He has the raw stuff to grab our attention as evidenced by his striking out a franchise record eight consecutive White Sox in his last start. Unfortunately, he coughed up four runs in an inning in that same game. He's getting there, but inconsistency persists.
• If you haven't watched San Francisco's Logan Webb recently, you might want to take a look. He has the best overall stuff of any Giants starting pitcher not named Kevin Gausman, and he is finding consistency with his dynamic change-up. I'm very optimistic regarding his season, and I'm buying wherever possible.
• I continue to look for reasons to recommend Garrett Richards. Back in the day, before all the injuries, I loved his upside, and I still see things I like.  He's not as dominant as he once was, but he can be close. I'd get on board if he would just more consistently maintain his release point. He's worthy of consideration.
• Stephen Strasburg left his last start after taking a comebacker off wrist, but it was clear something else was wrong. Even before the injury, his velocity had been down significantly, and he struggled to throw strikes (just 14 of 30 pitches for strikes). A neck strain could mean extended time off.

Endgame Odyssey:

The A's welcomed Jesus Luzardo back from the injured list last weekend and promptly used him for one inning. They were behind, but he pitched the ninth. Jake Diekman is a respectable set-up guy. So is Lou Trivino. Oakland wants to limit Luzardo's innings, and his stuff is very closer-like. Keep an eye on this one. Josh Staumont is out indefinitely for the Royals. Greg Holland is probably the guy to own (with reservations) unless they decide to give Kyle Zimmer a shot. I'm pretty sure the tenure of Orioles temporary closer Cesar Valdez is about over. Lefties Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are the most likely current options, but Hunter Harvey is on a rehab assignment, and he fits best. The Reds have just about convinced me you can go an entire season playing musical chairs in the bullpen. Right now, the Closer of the Week (subject to change without notice) appears to be Lucas Sims. I'm still betting Amir Garrett leads the team in saves in 2021, but I'm not betting much. The Mets Edwin Diaz just passed a major test. He blew his first save of the year, then was called upon to protect a one-run lead the next day. He sailed through the ninth inning without allowing a baserunner.