Mound Musings: The Risk/Reward Equation

Last week we covered some pitchers off to rocky starts in 2021 to determine whether they should be discarded or kept as they attempt to work through their struggles. That is a form of risk/reward analysis. This week, we take it a step further. If you are in the hunt for a league title, now is the time to actually pursue players – in our case pitchers – who, while with risk, have hinted better days are imminent. The key here is deciding how much reward is necessary to offset the risk. But, that is the basis of fantasy baseball. It's relatively easy to assign estimated value based on past performance. But, success is predicated on predicting the future.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both positive hints and future potential at this point in the season. Those are the critical components in risk/reward: hinting that performance could improve (risk), and the skillset to make a large impact (reward). 

You might consider adding these arms:

Jordan Montgomery (Yankees, 3-1, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) – Sometimes a pitcher just continually tosses hints that there are better days, in some cases much better days, ahead. That pretty much describes Montgomery. I focus on a couple things with him. First, he is among the leaders in throwing first-pitch strikes. One of the best predictors in successful pitching is consistently being ahead in the count, and there is no better way to do that than throwing strike one. Secondly, Montgomery is also among the leaders in the percentage of pitches hitters chase out of the strike zone. In essence, he is able to fool hitters with pitches that look like strikes but are actually difficult to hit. He still misses his spots too often as he works to get into a rhythm following some injury-plagued seasons. He's a young southpaw who can be a challenge, but I'm very optimistic he will accomplish success. He is certainly among my favorite trade targets. 

Jameson Taillon (Yankees, 1-4, 5.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) – No, I'm not a rabid Yankees fan, it just so happens that a couple of their starting pitchers have caught my attention as we continue down the path that is MLB 2021. Taillon has been on my radar since his amateur days, prior to his being selected second overall in the 2010 draft. Okay, you can call me dedicated, or maybe even stubborn, but this guy still shows a ceiling that injuries (and illness) have prevented him from ever achieving. The good news is he's taking a regular turn in the rotation. He looked as if he was breaking out in 2018 but then missed most of 2019 and all of 2020. He has made 11 starts in 2021, but has pitched just 53 innings. He still needs more consistent command – generally the last thing to come back after time off – and stamina. Taillon often pitches well early in his outings, then hits a wall around the fifth or sixth inning (typically around 70 to 75 pitches). As the season progresses, I think you will see his effectiveness last deeper into games, and he could be on the brink of recapturing his anticipated success over the second half.

Sandy Alcantara (Marlins, 3-5, 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) – I could probably name almost any Miami starting pitcher on a list of arms displaying upside, but I decided to focus on Alcantara because he has stood out to me as a pitcher making great strides in 2021. He has always had very good stuff, particularly his sinker, which generates a lot of weak contact. However, his fastball continues to tick up in velocity (now about 97.5 mph), and his secondary pitches are becoming more consistent. That all adds up to fewer walks, better pitch counts and perhaps more strikeouts in the future. The Marlins are a low payroll team, and they feature a low payroll offense, which compromises their high ceiling starting rotation, but they are going to be in a lot of games. Trevor Rogers is enjoying a breakout year (he's legit), and even Pablo Lopez is pitching well (he has just two wins despite allowing two or fewer runs in 11 of 13 starts this year). And, there is hopefully more help on the way. Top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez is rehabbing from some shoulder inflammation, and eventually 2020 first-round pick, Max Meyer, will join the party. This pond is a great place to fish for pitching talent.

Logan Gilbert (Mariners, 1-2, 4.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) – I'm probably walking out on a limb here as young starters, even those with abundant upside, are notoriously risky with inconsistent results, but I see a lot of things I like in Gilbert, and his shaky early starts may have disenchanted some of those who initially hopped on his bandwagon. In each of his outings this year, I've noted positives that could point to better things ahead, and in general he has improved steadily with each start. Gilbert has one of the best fastballs around, and if/when he commands it, he's tough to hit. He is still feeling his way as he learns on the job, but he has displayed very good mound presence, and I think he's worth the risk, especially in deeper leagues where quality starting pitchers are at a premium, and certainly in keeper formats. For the immediate future, look for improvement in his efficiency. He's good enough to throw strikes.  

Sonny Gray (Reds, 1-4, 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) – Let me begin by saying Gray was included on this list prior to his most recent start. He looked great in that start but only for three innings, as he departed with what is being described as "groin tightness." The Reds placed him on the injured list, and he is expected to miss two turns through the rotation, which could be a major factor with him. Gray is streaky. When everything is in sync and working, he's a beast, and there were indicators he was rounding into form recently. If this injury is, in fact, short term, perhaps him missing just two starts, I wouldn't be too concerned – his days in the sun could still be imminent. However, an extended absence could set him back and delay his next hot spell. If this is going to be a short-term thing, it could actually make him a bit easier to acquire.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres, 1-1, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) – I own Lamet in every league I play in, and, in many ways, I consider him one of my most valuable long-term players. Unfortunately, that value seems rather precarious due to health concerns. He missed the end of last season, including the playoffs, with a UCL strain. Too often, that diagnosis eventually leads to Tommy John surgery. He has opted to forego surgery, and so far he has looked pretty good, but the Padres have understandably, albeit frustratingly for fantasy owners, exercised extreme caution with his workload. It was very encouraging to see him complete five-plus innings (tossing 78 pitches) with six strikeouts, all season highs, in his last start. The final line was misleadingly tarnished, but these are baby steps as he attempts to build up closer to 100 pitches. If he gets there, and I'm counting on that happening, he could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game over the second half of the season.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Last week, Ryan Yarbrough tossed a complete game for Tampa Bay. Yarbrough is known more as an opener or long reliever, and complete games are relatively rare these days, but this one jumped out at me. It was the first complete game by a Rays pitcher since May 2016 – a span of 731 games. Wow!
• I really wanted to include the Giants Logan Webb on the target list above, however, his recent pattern of making a start, then landing on the injured list for a couple weeks while his shoulder recovers drives the risk side of the equation sky high. I like what I'm seeing, but that shoulder issue is really worrisome.
• The new and improved version of Kansas City's Danny Duffy caught my eye early in the season. I added him to my rosters wherever possible, but he went down with a flexor strain in mid-May. He, reportedly, is finally throwing again, and while there is no timetable for a return, I'm optimistic he can contribute soon.
• Yes, I watched the most recent start of Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes. I can't help myself. Some select pitchers are like crack to me, and he's one of them. I love the cutter, and his might be the best in the game right now. When he has his other pitches going, too, it's almost unfair. His best is yet to come. Scary.
• Another higher profile young starting pitcher made his debut earlier this week. Kansas City's Jackson Kowar didn't make it out of the first inning (39 pitches), but there were some positives. He appeared to really be pushing – not all that surprising in a first start – so let's see how he looks next time out.
• Heading into the season, I really liked the Cardinals, but I felt the one guy they couldn't afford to lose was Jack Flaherty. Now he's expected to miss about eight weeks with an oblique strain. Combined with their other pitching injuries, this could be quite a mountain to climb, and puts more pressure on the bullpen.

Endgame Odyssey:

I'm disappointed with the Flaherty news regarding the Cardinals starter, but there's more bad news. Jordan Hicks might be the latest rendition of Nate Jones (great stuff for a month or two, every year or two). A "best case scenario" predicts a return sometime in August, which probably means no fantasy value in 2021. A couple weeks ago, it looked like maybe the Tigers had uncovered their closer. Now, Michael Fulmer is on the injured list with a balky shoulder, so we're back to the committee. Gregory Soto and Jose Cisnero might be the leading candidates based on matchups, but neither is what I would consider a good play. The Tigers are hoping Fulmer will be back close to the date he is eligible. Boston's Matt Barnes continues to move up my top closers list. There was no doubt that he had the skills, but he has really taken to the role. His strike percentage is now over 70 percent, and he has the stuff to win those battles. J.P. Feyereisen logged a few saves when he first arrived in a trade with the Brewers, however, Diego Castillo is still probably first up for chances with the Rays, but the team undoubtedly will mix and match as they have done so very productively. The Rangers Ian Kennedy hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. The injury is being called "mild," so he isn't expected to miss significant time, but it does briefly open the door for someone else to potentially collect a couple saves. The question is, who? Joely Rodriguez probably would have gotten the call, but he has really struggled of late. That leaves the opportunity to either Josh Sborz, or the guy I would like to get the measure of, Demarcus Evans. Borz isn't a bad idea, but I think Evans is the better candidate. I just don't know if he has been up long enough to be entrusted with the ninth inning.