Mound Musings: See You in September

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Updated on September 2, 2021 3:10PM EST

Are you heading into the fantasy season's final month with your sights set on a league title? This is a tricky time because some teams will back off on the innings pitched for key arms they want fresh for the playoffs, while other teams, especially those out of the playoff picture, will want to see what they have coming into next season. These guys are a mix of arms that could help now, or they might be deserving of your attention next spring. Some are expected to return from the injured list (there may also be a few young arms). Let's briefly see who might be worth a look during the season's final month:

Noah Syndergaard (Mets) – Like all of the veteran pitchers featured below, Thor is expected to return from an extended absence (albeit in a different role) before the end of the season. Time is short, so making a fantasy impact is iffy at best, but I really want a look. Syndergaard has had to overcome multiple obstacles on his way back from Tommy John surgery. He started a rehab assignment in May, was shut down and just resumed a couple weeks ago. And, of note, the team reportedly told him no sliders the rest of this year. That's important if it lasts into 2022. No sliders would mean a whole new pitcher, and he may not be as effective. He will be a free agent this offseason, adding to the intrigue, and I own him in

Danny Duffy (Dodgers) – Duffy remade himself in 2021. Different pitch sequencing baffled hitters. A modified motion and slightly lower arm slot was creating slightly more velocity, and noticeably more movement. It was working. Notice my comments are past tense? That's because he went on the IL in mid-July with a forearm strain. Now here's the real headscratcher. Knowing he was hurt, the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. Huh? He is expected back sometime this month, although it is expected to be in a bullpen role. Maybe the Dodgers see him as a valuable southpaw reliever in the playoffs, but he was still an unusual trade target. For us fantasy aficionados, our inquiring minds want to know what to expect when he goes back into the starting rotation. Update: With this type of analysis, status can change constantly, and recent reports suggest Duffy is "weeks away" suggesting he probably won't pitch again in 2021. If he is none the worse for wear, I'm optimistic about 2022.

Joe Ryan (Twins) – I promised a mix of veterans potentially returning from injuries, and young prospect arms getting a taste of the major leagues. I'm going to include a few prospects who have already debuted because they might help in 2021, and their full month of action really gives us a better idea of the future. I want to start with Ryan because he has been a bit under the radar, and has shown me some potential to possibly help this season. He made his debut against the Cubs, and in general I liked what I saw quite a bit. As always, I warn readers to avoid getting carried away with a first start – both good and bad – but it would be difficult not to get a little excited by Ryan. He threw strikes, and was especially effective with a solid fastball that rides up and into righties. He threw a lot of fastballs early, with an occasional slider, curve and change. The slider looked pretty sharp, but to enjoy some success, he will need to mix in more of his secondary stuff. As he worked his way through the lineup the second time, the opposing hitters appeared to be timing him better, and picking the ball up better.

Edward Cabrera (Marlins) – Unlike Ryan, Cabrera has been hyped quite a bit, and has now made two starts to give us a feel for where he's at. He's covered 10.1 innings in those two starts, and while the results have been rather ordinary (0-1, 5.23 ERA. 1.35 WHIP), I think he has a bright future – I just don't necessarily think it will be this year. Cabrera recently made three starts at Triple-A Jacksonville where he notched 35 strikeouts in 17 innings. That's more than impressive. However, despite strong velocity (97 mph average fastball), he hasn't missed many bats at the major league level (just four punchouts with three walks). I look for modest improvement during September as he refines his skills, but his real value likely kicks in next year.

Triston McKenzie (Indians) – His 2021 season has been like an intriguing Hollywood romance – on again, off again, and the next chapter is about to be written. He has been in the minors, up with the Indians, and on the IL all season with mixed results. He compiled an ugly 5.00+ ERA, succeeding in camouflaging his 2022 draft value, then spun a couple dazzling starts (three hits, one earned run and 19 strikeouts over 15 innings) before going back on the IL with shoulder fatigue. He spent just the minimum time on the injured list and has now been announced as the starter for later today (Thursday) against Kansas City. The wispy – that might be generous – right-hander (6'5" 165 pounds) is considered a durability risk, but he can be absolutely electric when he's healthy and has everything in sync. If he's available, grab him.

Jacob deGrom (Mets) – I think a lot of people would agree deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball from April to June. Despite some popgun run support, the Mets were considered locks for the 2021 playoffs, and every start seemed like another reason to praise deGrom. He allowed just 40 hits and 11 earned runs over 92 innings, while compiling an almost unbelievable 146/11 K/BB. Then it abruptly came to an alarming halt in early July. Elbow issues sent him to the IL, initially expected to be a short-term thing, but he hasn't pitched since. A 2021 playoff appearance is probably a pipedream now, so pushing it is not in the Mets' best interest. A recent MRI reportedly showed his elbow is sound, so he just started throwing again. But it's too late for him to make a fantasy impact this year. We need to see him pitch to instill confidence in a full speed deGrom next season where, if healthy, he is likely the first pitcher off the board.

Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles) – I want to close out this September preview with a couple kids I am hoping to see this month. I love this guy, but unfortunately, he probably won't see Baltimore this month. He has spent the majority of this season at Double-A Bowie where he has made quite a splash (5-1, 2.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, with a 104/19 K/BB over 66 innings). It's legit. He has the stuff and the mound presence to eventually become a top-of-the-rotation starter despite being part of an organization that doesn't have the greatest reputation for developing young pitchers. He's good enough I would seriously consider giving him a shot if he comes up this month, but I think that's probably a bit of a longshot, so add him to your target list for 2022.

Shane Baz (Rays) – I think there is a somewhat better chance we see Baz at some point this season. The traditionally conservative Rays have moved him steadily up the ladder as he develops with time at Double-A, Triple-A and with the USA Olympic team this season. At Triple-A Durham, he has logged 35 innings with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP to go with 47 strikeouts. The team is closely monitoring his workload. He has pitched exactly five innings in nine of his 15 2021 starts but never further, so if he comes up, he could potentially contribute to the Rays' playoff push while also being a consideration in fantasy circles. When they arrive, Rays pitchers are usually ready.

There are a few others approaching a return to major league mounds. Luis Severino (Yankees) might be the highest profile, but he, like others, is running out of time to build arm strength. He is expected to work out of the bullpen. The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw finds himself in a similar situation. Not enough time, so he'll probably provide bullpen help into the playoffs. Nate Pearson (Blue Jays) could return to Toronto as soon as this weekend, but even if his shoulder is fully healed, his performance has declined, and he has some confidence building to do. There's one other pitcher I am anxious to see this September. Shane Bieber (Indians) is unlikely to have a fantasy impact this season, but reports have been encouraging, and he will certainly be a very interesting target next spring.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

A pitcher who has gradually begun to win me over this season is now out for the rest of the year. The Angels' Patrick Sandoval has pretty good stuff. He was throwing more strikes, and the results were positive. He suffered a lumbar back injury and isn't expected to pitch again in 2021. Put him on the list next spring.
It seems like every few days I look at Colorado's Kyle Freeland. He doesn't miss enough bats, but he is a quality starter. I just can't get past the dangers of pitching in Coors Field, or the fact that the Rockies just don't play very well on the road. I don't know. Maybe someday I'll throw caution to the wind.
Every season a handful of young pitchers surprises me with an unexpected level of performance. One of those this year has been Minnesota's Bailey Ober. I've watched him a couple times now, and while he doesn't have dominant stuff, he does generally throw his modest repertoire for quality strikes. Take a look.
And, Miami's Jesus Luzardo finally snuck in a strong start last weekend against the Reds. Acquired from Oakland, he entered the game with a horrible 7.91 ERA to go with an equally bad 1.82 WHIP. Sorry folks, he's better than that by a good distance. I'm not sure he has turned the corner, but don't ignore him.
We are witnessing the benefit of eliminating "easy takes" from a pitcher's game. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays has always had excellent stuff, but hitters were able to ignore pitches out of the zone, because it was immediately apparent the pitch wasn't going to be a strike. No longer. An ace is born.
A possible deep sleeper for the final month, the Diamondbacks' Luke Weaver is now rejoining the Arizona rotation. He's returning from a shoulder injury (and a stint on the Covid IL). The oft-injured Weaver is a wild card, but when healthy he can string together some pretty effective innings.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Rockies have relieved Daniel Bard of his closing duties and replaced him with Carlos Estevez. You have to like Bard's feel-good story, but he was never a really good choice to pitch the ninth inning. Estevez is probably only marginally better. I think the Red Sox will eventually ease Matt Barnes back into the closer's gig – he looked so good – but Adam Ottavino probably experiences a temporary boost in value until Barnes gets his house in order (and gets off the Covid list). The Cardinals are mulling their options regarding Alex Reyes. They aren't comfortable with his lack of command. Jordan Hicks remains their closer of the future if he can ever get healthy, but that won't be this year. Giovanny Gallegos might be the best choice over the short term. I'm hoping Toronto has given up trying to displace their best closer. Jordan Romano is doing the job; Julian Merryweather has experienced another setback; and they DFA'd both Rafael Dolis, and, most recently, Brad Hand, who was a major flop as a deadline acquisition. San Diego's Mark Melancon has led the majors in saves all season, but he had just three in the month of August. He hasn't really been any less effective, but late leads have been rare for the swooning Padres. Opportunity still counts.