Mound Musings: My 2022 Home League Pitching Staff

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I might take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

 A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. This will be my 30th season, and most of the league's owners have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but owners have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we usually all come back for draft day. However, with travel restrictions, etc., for the first time, we held the draft online. These guys are savvy, experienced, and they are pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other owners. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it is a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging – picking up a free agent requires a "move" usually from a player being sent down or put on the injured list. You can then release that player and pick up someone on the waiver wire (order is determined by reverse order of the current standings). Since you probably won't want to cut a key player who goes on the IL for a short time, you really need versatility and some productivity on your bench.

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why:

Overview: I say this often, but in all my years of playing fantasy baseball, this pitching staff, particularly the starting pitchers, might have the highest collective upside of any staff I have fielded. You know me, the eternal optimist! That's the good news. I do have some health concerns with the group, especially with the shortened spring. Early on it is clear teams are generally monitoring workloads, meaning fewer innings/win chances. That will, in the long run, increase the value of workhorses. So, let's take a look at the staff:

• SP1 Julio Urias – Urias is one of several on this staff that have occupied the penthouse suite of my elite kids list. He has worked through injuries that delayed his development, but he put it all together last year going 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA. I don't think he has peaked quite yet, so he gets the No. 1 designation on this year's staff. Despite his sluggish start with a rocky first outing – it was in Colorado and after the abbreviated spring training – I feel good about 2022. Like pretty much every pitcher, he just needs to sty healthy.
• SP2 Alek Manoah– It's a keeper league, so I was very happy with the nucleus of my starting rotation, but I felt I needed to add one more top-of-the-rotation starter, and Manoah was the guy I ended up getting. I had a fairly short list looking for the potential for a lot of innings with strong peripherals and the opportunity to log quite a few wins. The AL East is no picnic, but the Jays offense should give him ample run support, so he checked all the boxes. I wish the price tag would have been a bit less, but quality starting pitching was recognized as a rare commodity, and the other owners were bidding accordingly. As the draft progressed, lack of pitching depth became more and more evident.
• SP3 Shohei Ohtani – Granted, Ohtani is not truly a SP1. However, these rotation assignments are based on expectations, and I firmly believe he has proven he can provide No. 1 stats, just not over as many innings as a typical ace. Given his hitting workload, it is understandable that the Angels want to keep him as fresh as possible. They are using him in a six-man rotation and are likely to closely monitor his pitch counts, so I'm hoping for about 150 innings (he tossed 130 last year). If he can get there, his peripherals should be excellent, and he could win a lot of games if the team's position players can stay on the field.
• SP4 Carlos Rodon – We're getting into the pitchers who win (or lose) league championships, and I'm hoping to be in the hunt. I have been a big Rodon fan since he arrived in MLB, though I've had to wait patiently as he overcame a laundry list of injuries, so getting him last year at a significant discount was a bonus. He went 13-8 with a 2.37 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 133 innings for the White Sox in 2021. It's the 133 innings that is most worrisome. Granted, he pitched just 42 innings over the previous two seasons, so workload restrictions were not a surprise. If he can stay on the mound and take a regular turn all year, the ballpark should help, and the upside is enormous. Keep your fingers crossed.
• SP5 Logan Webb – I'll admit, Webb is not my typical pitcher. I watched him struggle over a couple seasons. He has fairly good, not great, stuff and he wasn't always able to throw it for strikes. Then last year he changed. His stuff wasn't really much better, but he was spotting his pitches with precision. That can be enough if done consistently. He hung around on the waiver wire, and I needed an SP so I decided to see if he could keep it up. He did. He's not going to be a big strikeout pitcher, but he can provide quality innings, which is a valuable commodity in these trying times.
• SP6 Noah Syndergaard – So here we have an SP6 capable of being an SP1. So, mark me down as biased. I like his stuff as well as that of any pitcher in the game. The Angels say he will have no restrictions, but with him having missed almost all of the last two seasons, I'd be thrilled if Thor could handle 140 to 150 innings. I watched his first start and found it interesting. His fastball was down a couple ticks, and he threw more off-speed stuff, but he seemed to be pitching more within himself. I liked it. I honestly don't expect him to be a No. 1 in 2022, but if he gets back in top form, I'd bet on him being there next year and beyond.
• SP7 Jameson Taillon – Here's yet another kid's list alumnus. It stands to reason. I first saw Taillon when he was in high school, and I immediately decided he was destined to pitch for me. I have had to be patient. He was selected second overall in the 2010 draft (between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) out of high school, and he was making modest progress before Tommy John surgery and a hernia entirely wiped out his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He came back strong in 2016 – but then he underwent a second Tommy John surgery, and he missed time due to cancer. He's now 30-years-old. Can he be what he promised all those years ago? I'm not betting against him.
• RP1 Kenley Jansen – Jansen has been a question mark the past couple of seasons, so I played along and released him after a fairly successful 2021, fully intending to try and buy him back, hoping to save a little payroll. It worked, as I bought him at a pretty nice discount. I think he is on the decline, as age and mileage catch up. but I don't think he's done by any means. The Braves must feel the same. Jansen has been on virtually all my fantasy teams since he became a closer, so maybe some loyalty is at work here too.
• RP2 Jordan Romano – I was projecting Romano as a top tier closer a couple years ago, but the Blue Jays made me nervous. First, they landed Kirby Yates, but he blew his arm out. Then, they briefly tried Julian Merryweather, but he also ended up hurt. It was almost like they wanted to be sure Romano didn't close games. I would hope we are beyond that now. He has successfully closed out each of Toronto's 2022 wins, and I feel like he is close to becoming my bullpen anchor for the foreseeable future.
• RP3 Mark Melancon – I know. I know. Melancon is not capable of functioning as a closer at the MLB level. Just ask almost any analyst. Last year the Padres were expected (by many) to deploy a long list of relievers in the ninth inning – not including Melancon. I had him on almost every fantasy team, and he led MLB with 39 saves. He does not have the usual overpowering stuff, that's true, but he does have a closer's mentality, and that is extremely important. Like Yogi Berra famously said, "Baseball is 90 percent mental, and the other half is physical." In the case of closing games, that is more true than you may know.
• FLEX – this could be a SP7/8 or RP3/4 – Danny Duffy, Nick Lodolo, Garrett Richards, Seranthony Dominguez, Andres Munoz and A.J. Puk – This is the "bench strength" of my mound corps, so keeping the regulars on the mound is obviously the key to my season. By the end of the draft, pitching was a veritable wasteland, and I filled in with what was available. For the most part, these aren't bad pitchers, I just don't know how fantasy relevant they will be. I like Duffy a bit, but he is out until midseason. Lodolo is a nice young arm, and both Richards and Munoz could figure into the saves mix for their respective teams if all the pieces fall into place. Time will tell.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Take another look at my review of my 2022 home league pitching staff. Specifically, read over the description of Logan Webb. I think there is a starting pitcher out there who might soon deserve similar analysis. I have quietly added Atlanta's Kyle Wright in a handful of leagues. I am becoming optimistic.
• There was a young pitcher I really targeted but didn't get in most of my leagues. Seattle's Matt Brash was relatively unknown a couple weeks ago, but by the time most of my drafts took place, he was quite the hyped buzz boy. I'd like to see more consistent off-speed pitches, but his power stuff is downright filthy.
• While many analysts were jumping ship on San Diego's MacKenzie Gore as he struggled to rediscover his form, he remained at the top of my "Kids on Parade" list. It will soon be time to reap the rewards if you hung onto him. This spring he was razor sharp, and it has carried over at Triple-A. It's only a matter of time.
• Another pitcher I was anxious to see was Detroit's Matt Manning. Last year he really struggled with his command and seemed to be pressing at times, but there were some positive signs later in the season. We'll see if he can stay focused, but I was encouraged with his first outing.

Endgame Odyssey:

One of the topics most discussed here on the Musings is potential sources for saves later this season or maybe even further in the future. We have identified quite a few closers in waiting over the years, many before they were even on most fantasy radars. I thought this might be a good time to list my watch list in case readers are looking for good arms to stash. It's unlikely they will all end up closing, but it only takes one, right? The list comprises pitchers I've been watching for some time, and a few who are already getting at least an occasional chance, but any of them could be considered.

1. Jhoan Duran – Minnesota Twins
2. Andres Munoz – Seattle Mariners
3. Tanner Rainey – Washington Nationals
4. Camilo Doval – San Francisco Giants\
5. Garrett Richards – Texas Rangers
6. Jordan Hicks – St. Louis Cardinals
7. A.J. Puk – Oakland Athletics