Mound Musings: Looking for Saves

It's only mid-May, and some fantasy owners are probably already looking for saves. As promised, I am going to spend a bit more time on bullpens, and this week I have decided to focus on a question I see almost every week – Which relief pitchers are likely to collect holds, or, better yet, might see save chances at sometime in the future? 

Interestingly, when a team decides they need to change its closer, it's not always the seemingly obvious choice who gets the call. While you might think the top set-up guy who typically works the eighth inning is next in line, that's not always the case. I have compiled an unofficial checklist of frequently preferred attributes that could lead to a particular reliever being given the first crack at future save chances. I thought it might be useful to go over those attributes.

Things to watch for on a potential future closer's resume:

Below is an outline of factors I take into consideration when assessing possible role changes in a bullpen. Understand, these are generalizations and not cast in stone. And, the situation is often very fluid, meaning the perceived need for change can be critical one day but perhaps less important the next. Remember, baseball still tends to be "traditional," and change is not typically the preferred course of action.

• Opportunity is always first – Changes in bullpen roles may be gradual, or they can happen virtually overnight. When you assess a team's bullpen, you need to first determine whether real opportunity exists. Baseball managers are very likely to live by the age old philosophy of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," and they typically prefer to stay the course rather than making big changes unless it becomes necessary. Players are more comfortable when they know their role, albeit most relief pitchers aspire to more and more, high-leverage work. And, that role can be one of several. It could be closing in the ninth inning, being the primary set-up man used in the eighth inning, or even the "long man" who is frequently used when the starter has a rough outing and departs early. These days, it can even be an opener or piggyback reliever. Ideally, a team would like to have specific pitchers functioning in specific roles, and they will resist changing those roles as long as they are being successful. Therefore, even if there is a candidate who seems like a better option to close, barring injury or failure to perform – often multiple failures – by the current closer, opportunity may be a long time in coming about. Notably however, the lower leverage the role, the more likely we are to see fairly frequent changes, primarily because the pitchers in those roles are far less likely to perform consistently. It tends to be a fairly constant roller coaster of increasing, then decreasing, then again increasing reliance.
• Closing experience – This one can be pretty frustrating – at least to me. When looking for a new closer, most managers will often look first at old closers. Okay, not necessarily old, but former closers with experience pitching in the ninth inning. Some pretty mediocre (might be generous) relief pitchers have made a career floating from ream to team, often filling in as an interim closer. At the end of every season, I publish my annual awards issue including the Kevin Gregg award – given to the pitcher who logged saves despite not really profiling as a closer at all. In most cases the winner is someone who had pitched the ninth inning in the past and suddenly found yet another open window of opportunity. So, just keep in mind, this interim closer with prior experience never found fulltime closing duties for a reason. Warning flags should be flying. Obviously, a pitcher can't have prior closing experience until he's had a chance to fill that role. Closing in college or the minors is some help, but doing it at the major-league level is very different. It will often take a situation where there is an immediate need for a closer, and no one in that bullpen has any prior closing experience, resulting in what I like to call "open auditions" to find their new endgamer.
• Repertoire – Most relief pitchers, including closers, are former starting pitchers. Until recently, it was almost unheard of to see a relief pitcher taken (at least taken very early) in the amateur draft. The best young arms were groomed to be starters, and, the better the arm, the more patient teams would be to see if the guy could develop the repertoire needed to succeed at the highest level of the game. We are gradually seeing an evolution with pitchers being developed as relief specialists from the start of their careers. That said, a late-inning reliever will probably need a minimum of two reliable, quality pitches (unlike a starter who will almost always need at least three or four). In reality, there are quite a few two-pitch starting pitchers who could probably be dominant closers right now. However, the huge value of a top tier starter will see teams being patient as they hope to see their best young arms develop a deeper repertoire. Now, more than ever, power pitchers are considered the prototypical closers. A mid-high 90s fastball, usually coupled with another power pitch that breaks a bit more like a power slider or cutter is almost mandatory. They may have other pitches they will throw occasionally just to keep hitters guessing, but the best closers have all but scrapped the pitches they tried to develop as starters and usually have one trademark pitch they will rely on, especially when the game is on the line. For me – and this I suppose you could say would be personal preference – the "closer pitch" is the cut fastball. The best reliever of all time, Mariano Rivera (652 career saves) – notably a former starting pitcher – threw his cutter almost exclusively for years. It's saying something to tell a major league hitter what pitch is coming, and still send them back to the dugout time and time again. Until recently, Kenley Jansen had a similarly devastating cutter.
• Past performance (even as a starting pitcher) helps define roles – As a continuation of some of the factors discussed above, it's understandably all about performance. Many pitchers are capable of some success in the right role, but are not necessarily good options if asked to fill a much different role. For example, Drew Pomeranz is doing very well since moving to the bullpen, but Freddy Peralta is probably a risky play long-term as he could be overexposed with a limited repertoire now that he is back in the rotation. There are teams that attempt to collect live-armed, failed starters and convert them into relievers to participate in "bullpen" games. Think Tampa Bay. They clearly have been very successful using this approach, although I think overuse of those relievers can, and likely will, wear them down over time. A large percentage of starting pitchers struggle. Maybe its stamina. They seem to run into a wall after three or so innings. Even more likely, the wall runs into them, as they are forced to navigate through a lineup for the second or third time with a subpar repertoire. Inability to consistently throw strikes – especially with multiple pitches – is a huge problem. It can be problematic for relievers, too, but they typically only have to throw their best pitch or two for quality strikes.
• Mental makeup – This is the golden ticket. If you have a live arm, command of a couple quality pitches, and the opportunity presents itself, you could get a shot at closing games. This factor often makes the difference. And, having it might come with a lifetime supply of chocolate. However, this is easily the most difficult factor to quantify. The very best closers all have these attributes in common. They all have a very short memory. Their adrenaline spikes in critical situations (which sometimes makes them vulnerable in nonsave situations). To them, adversity just increases their focus. Closing pro baseball games is a pressure-packed job. Every time a closer steps on the mound, it's a win or lose scenario, and the results are often squarely on his shoulders. And, under the white-hot lights of a media shark tank like New York City, that pressure can be greatly magnified. If you have a bad outing one day, you must be able to forget that one and come out guns blazing, sometimes the next day. Some pitchers, especially the elite closers, thrive on that pressure. Others, even some with exceptional stuff, collapse under the weight of it and need less stressful work. Pitchers like Jose Leclerc and Hector Neris are examples of pitchers with the raw stuff who have yet to prove they have the ideal mental makeup. I always think of one of my all-time favorites. Fernando Rodney wasn't an especially gifted pitcher, but he could have an epic meltdown one night and the next night, enter the game with an even more tenuous lead and be virtually untouchable.

There it is. Objectively assess any pitcher and try to determine what role is likely to lead to future success. The mental makeup aspects of a potential closer are hard to clearly identify, but you can watch to see how a pitcher reacts to tough times in other roles. For example, if an error behind him or a tight strike zone from the umpire rattle him rather than sending his game to the next level, he may not be the best choice to close games.

In the Spotlight: San Diego's Mark Melancon

Melancon is not typically viewed as an elite closer. In fact, almost every spring many analysts predict his banishment to a less critical role in the bullpen. Yet, as we reach mid-May 2021, here he is with a MLB-leading 12 saves, converting all 12 save chances for the Padres. The 36-year-old opened the season as the closer and has allowed just one run (0.54 ERA) on eight hits and three walks (0.66 WHIP) across 16.2 innings this season, and that lone run was allowed in a rare, two-inning, non-save outing. Over his 12-year career, he has accumulated 217 saves (and 72 holds) with a 2.79 ERA. In one stretch, he notched 98 saves, blowing just six chances, over the 2015-2016 seasons. Despite his accomplishments, he doesn't get a lot of respect from baseball writers – that comes from major league managers and opposing hitters.

You see, while he is certainly an experienced closer, he doesn't have the dominating stuff usually associated with dominant endgamers. He averages just 92 mph with his fastball – almost a soft-tosser in today's velocity-first cheese factory. However, Melancon also has a very deceptive cutter and a devastating curveball, all of which he can, and will, throw at anytime, in any count, typically with pinpoint accuracy. He also possesses that intangible, pure closer, mental makeup. Will he blow a save again? Probably. Will he get roughed up a bit when asked to pitch in a nonsave blowout? Probably. But, you'd never know it when he's asked to protect a precarious one-run lead the next day. If he had a triple-digit fastball, they would probably want him to pitch blindfolded.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I had an opportunity to watch Kyle Gibson in his last start and liked much of what I saw. The addition of a cut fastball has given him a very useful weapon to help him keep opposing hitters off balance. He's not an ace by any means, but he has transformed himself into a potential fantasy asset.
• The perpetually injured Stephen Strasburg is progressing in his rehab from elbow inflammation, but he is still likely a few weeks away. The good news is he actually tossed more pitches than expected (62) in his most recent simulated game, so there is reason for optimism. He is worth a grab and stash.
• We were all anxious to see Toronto's Nate Pearson make his 2021 debut, and we were all pretty much disappointed. Pearson showed some positive traits (as expected) and he has displayed reasonable command in the minors, so don't cross him off, but Alek Manoah may be getting closer to his MLB debut.
• The Cardinals rotation seems to be coming together. Kwang Hyun Kim has looked better in each start and is getting fully stretched out. They are still short-handed, but hopefully they will welcome back Miles Mikolas in a couple weeks. This group has the potential to make a big push as the season progresses.
• This just in, the Mariners are reportedly planning to make a big splash this week. They are expected to promote one the game's best hitting prospects in outfielder Jarred Kelenic and then add Logan Gilbert to their rotation. It's hard to judge on such a small sample, but Gilbert has the tools to make him worth a flyer.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Cardinals moved Jordan Hicks to the 60-day IL, meaning he won't be back until the second half. Having already been through Tommy John surgery, this is of concern. It should keep Alex Reyes in the closer's role for the foreseeable future. The Reds Amir Garrett is currently serving a suspension for, let's say, being "outspoken." He has the best raw skillset to serve as Cincinnati's closer. We'll have to see if he has the mental makeup to succeed. Don't tell us, Amir. Show us. White Sox closer Liam Hendriks has just six saves with a modest 3.29 ERA, but the heavy-hitting Sox, who have the largest run differential in baseball, just don't give him enough save opportunities, and Hendriks has always been at his best when shouldering a heavy workload. Aroldis Chapman has seen his fastball velocity dip, but he has more than made up for it with a nasty new splitter (hitters are 0-for-13 with 12 strikeouts against it so far).