Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Mound Musings is all about interaction. I appreciate the questions, and discussing whether this guy or that guy is the best pitcher to have on a roster is what it's all about. As we get up to speed for the 2019 season, I thought it might be useful to outline some of the things I focus on when comparing pitchers, or just deciding whether I would like a specific pitcher taking the mound for my teams. Injuries are a huge part of the evaluation process – both for the short term and over the long haul – and determining the impact, good and bad, is the bottom line. There are several things to look at, so let's go.

What does that injury mean to his fantasy value: Injuries seem to have become a huge part of the fantasy game, and as amazing as it seems, the impact is still growing. Just like in the actual game, depth is important for fantasy owners, and avoiding "harm" (see below) is increasingly challenging. How soon will my guy return? What can I expect when he comes back? If he's a little rusty, how can I tell? Those are the questions. I'll try to fill in some answers, and we'll even look at a way to profit (value) from an injury.

Obviously, injuries vary widely. Some are relatively minor, and the pitcher returns in just a couple of weeks. In most cases, the impact on the pitcher's performance is relatively minimal. The exception being that the pitcher could pitch better if he was hindered by the injury before landing on the injured list. Just remember, that improvement is not going to surpass his realistic ceiling when he's completely healthy.

Other injuries are more problematic when determining return date and anticipated performance when the pitcher does return. Injuries that require surgery, like Tommy John (surgery to repair significant shoulder problems) and thoracic outlet syndrome surgery immediately come to mind. These entail long, and sometimes unpredictable, layoffs with the pitcher unable to pick up a baseball, much less throw one with normal effort, for several months. And, that's the first standard in evaluating performance after his return. As a general rule, the longer a pitcher goes without throwing, the longer it will take for him to return to form when he comes back. Injuries that take a player away from the game for months might resolve the issues, but in some cases it can take as much as two years for the pitcher to come back to his pre-injury form.

The injuries listed above have different recovery timelines, and often provide different challenges when determining future expectations. Shoulder woes include so many variables and require so much rehab, that they are (IMHO) the hardest to evaluate. In most cases, recovery timelines are "best guess" estimates, and setbacks extending the recovery timeline are common. My best advice is to wait until the pitcher has been back to throwing at speed for several bullpen sessions, without setbacks. Just be aware that setbacks can still happen, and there could be changes in the pitcher's mechanics for him to try to avoid future damage. In any case, even when the pitcher does make it back, there will likely be rust to shake off, and inconsistency is likely. Pitchers like Luis Severino Sean Manaea and Danny Salazar underscore the frustrations of shoulder injuries. As for TOS surgery, I'm not a doctor, or even a trainer, but in my experience, it seems many pitcher's have a very tough time coming back. If the pitcher was someone whom I was very interested in owning, I don't write him off, but I do consider him very risky.

So here's the promised potential profit angle. Tommy John surgery has become almost an everyday occurrence. A significant percentage of pitchers experience the surgical procedure at least once during their careers. And, while it's not guaranteed, the recovery timeline, and expectations of a return to form, are relatively consistent. Most won't return for at least a year and sometimes as long as 18 months. When they do return from such an extended time away from a MLB mound, most will be inconsistent until they are nearly two years removed from the procedure. Interestingly, quite a few pitchers will actually find added velocity with their "new" arm. In most cases, the velocity returns fairly quickly, but that always important command lags behind, dragging out the return to top form. Use these parameters to your advantage. A few pitchers are expected to return later this year from elbow surgery. In keeper leagues, I bought Dinelson Lamet with few expectations for this year. Those inconsistent results will probably occur. But, I anticipate very good things beginning next season. And, in redrafts, if you are a Lamet fan (or perhaps like guys like Brent Honeywell or Taijuan Walker, who are also expected back later this summer), less than stellar results the last couple of months in 2018 could deflate their prices next spring. It doesn't work every time, but it works often enough.

The "Do No Harm" principle: Last week, I promised I would talk a bit about the "Do No Harm" principle. It's a cardinal rule in my approach. Regular readers know I mention this principle frequently. The impact of sub-par performance, often as injury replacements, and the need to win now can be devastating for actual MLB teams and your fantasy squad. Just like you, they may have to replace a regular starter, and their goal will be (at least) to "do no harm" while that regular starter is out of action. It's very unlikely you will be able to stack a rotation with nothing but healthy, top-of-the-rotation talent, but you have to be careful when filling those back-of-the-rotation slots. More so than with hitters, a bad pitcher can be a nightmare waiting to happen. Poor hitters may not add counting stats, but that pitching nightmare can haunt your WHIP and ERA for the rest of your season. That is doing harm, and it's not an easy thing to erase.

A top prospect can be very appealing, but is the kid ready? These days, pitchers are frequently rushed to the majors, and while they may briefly enjoy some success as hitters learn their strengths and weaknesses, the under-developed aspects of their game usually surface fairly soon. Just when you think they are safe to use in your lineup, the meltdown comes. And, in reality, they might not be very good prospects. It may seem counterintuitive, but teams are usually more conservative in promoting the best arms in their system. So, especially earlier in the season, it might be safer to fill in with that boring veteran who isn't likely going to be a huge boost, but being a known commodity, is less likely to offset the contributions of your frontline guys.

Strikeouts continue to grow in fantasy importance: Homeruns have always been a popular aspect in baseball. Fans love them. Players love them. Okay, pitchers not so much. And fantasy owners love them because they add to three categories. However, they have changed the overall landscape of the game. Launch angle and exit velocity are the in-vogue terms to use. Conversely, things like sacrifice bunts and even stolen bases are becoming dinosaurs. Speed and on base percentage aren't as prominent as sluggers now hit in the top spots in the order to provide them with more chances to launch more bombs. So what impact has this had on fantasy pitchers? It has devalued the innings eater – that guy who pitches to contact with a modest strikeout rate. If this continues – and I think it will – pitchers with high K/9 will become more and more important. That means your scouting will need to focus more on pitchers who miss a lot of bats. With hitters coming out of their shoes on every swing, it should be pretty easy.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors when value shopping for your fantasy team.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Speaking of injuries, it looks like the Indians (and his fantasy owners) will be without Mike Clevinger for at least two months, or longer, as he deals with a back injury. With no throwing at all for six to eight weeks, there will be another month or more before he gets back up to speed, and that's probably a best-case scenario.
• I'm more than a bit concerned with Stephen Strasburg so far this season. Diminished velocity and less life on his pitches has made him more hittable, and opponents are making him pay. There has been no word of an injury, and his less accurate command suggests a mechanical tweak may be in order.
• Even more alarming is the early season swoon of Boston's Chris Sale. He's 0-3 with a 1.54 WHIP and a 9.00 ERA with just eight strikeouts in 13 innings. None of those numbers are Sale-like, and his average fastball velocity is down three ticks. That is possibly more than mechanical. I fear an injury may be revealed soon.
• On a more positive note, I really liked Derek Holland a few seasons ago before he was slowed by injuries. I watched part of his start against San Diego the other day, and he looked perhaps the best I have seen him since 2014. If he has been left on the wire in your league, I think he might be worth adding.
• As I anticipated, the Rays' Tyler Glasnow has seemingly realized his stuff is good enough to dominate hitters, and he can go right at them with confidence. He's now 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts in 17 innings. This organization does an exceptional job of conveying that message.
• Jacob deGrom was roughed up by the Twins earlier this week. That's not typically big news as even the best starters have shaky outings every few starts. But, this one broke a string of 26 quality starts. That is literally amazing, as several teams didn't accumulate that many quality starts all last season.

Endgame Odyssey:

In Philadelphia, the game of musical closers just goes on and on. David Robertson is probably the "primary" guy, but he's always been a better set-up man. I think they would understandably like to keep Seranthony Dominguez in a more flexible role, so maybe Hector Neris will get yet another shot at the ninth inning. Folks, it's a guessing game. I'm curious to see what the Brewers have in mind when Jeremy Jeffress returns. They can't afford too many two-plus inning saves for Josh Hader (much as they wish they could), so I'm guessing they could ease Jeffress back into the ninth inning. A great development so far this year has been the performance of the slimmer and trimmer Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers. He has looked dominant, and I again have him very near the top of the closer food chain. The Red Sox may be moving away from the more versatile Matt Barnes as their closer. Their rotation woes have created a critical need for him to pitch earlier in games, so Ryan Brasier might see the bulk of the save chances. Like most of the Yankees' roster, Aroldis Chapman is banged up. Dellin Betances is already on the injured list, so Zack Britton might be a good insurance policy for Chapman owners. As things begin to shake out in bullpens around MLB, where roster space allows, I'm placing buy orders on a handful of guys who could see regular ninth-inning work in the future. I still think Kelvin Herrera will take the job from Alex Colome for the White Sox. A.J. Minter may already have the gig in Atlanta, as Arodys Vizcaino is less than completely healthy. And, color me crazy (you won't be the first to do so), but I still think Ian Kennedy might find a new job finishing games in Kansas City.