This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
This year, there have been even more (than usual) young and veteran arms posting surprisingly ugly numbers. And, some have enjoyed incredible success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be pursued on draft day. Others, who were being counted upon by their fantasy owners to anchor their staffs, have been just that – literally, an anchor. For the new guys who have been turning heads, even with those good beginnings, most won't post long-term value as the hitters build books on them and uncover their flaws. However, some will likely take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you. The trick is deciding which to pursue.
That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who I am leery of pursuing. So, I'll throw out some pitchers who have posted more or less impressive numbers, but might be risky propositions going forward. Watch the warning signs on these guys.
I'm probably be staying away from these pitchers next spring:
Tanner Bibee (Guardians) – Don't get me wrong, Bibee has posted another pretty nice season. He's 11-7 with a 3.56 ERA and a solid 1.13 WHIP. The Guardians have needed arms to step up, and Bibee is one who did just that. My concerns are about the future. He has good, but not great, stuff, and he relies quite a bit on a rather deceptive motion. That often leads to being more hittable as batters become more familiar, and to be honest I'm a little surprised that
This year, there have been even more (than usual) young and veteran arms posting surprisingly ugly numbers. And, some have enjoyed incredible success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be pursued on draft day. Others, who were being counted upon by their fantasy owners to anchor their staffs, have been just that – literally, an anchor. For the new guys who have been turning heads, even with those good beginnings, most won't post long-term value as the hitters build books on them and uncover their flaws. However, some will likely take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you. The trick is deciding which to pursue.
That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who I am leery of pursuing. So, I'll throw out some pitchers who have posted more or less impressive numbers, but might be risky propositions going forward. Watch the warning signs on these guys.
I'm probably be staying away from these pitchers next spring:
Tanner Bibee (Guardians) – Don't get me wrong, Bibee has posted another pretty nice season. He's 11-7 with a 3.56 ERA and a solid 1.13 WHIP. The Guardians have needed arms to step up, and Bibee is one who did just that. My concerns are about the future. He has good, but not great, stuff, and he relies quite a bit on a rather deceptive motion. That often leads to being more hittable as batters become more familiar, and to be honest I'm a little surprised that hasn't happened yet. Sometimes pitchers fool me and they adjust enough to keep hitters honest, but more often than not, the peripherals suffer somewhat. I believe he will remain a decent starting pitcher, but others might be expecting a little too much, and that could drive his draft price a bit too high.
Kutter Crawford (Red Sox) – Call me a pessimist. Crawford has posted pretty respectable peripherals (4.08 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP) this year, and even has a decent record of 8-13 while pitching for an erratic Boston team, but I don't see it improving. He has rather mediocre command of just so-so stuff, he doesn't miss quite enough bats, and he gives up a few too many hard-hit balls. Other than that, he's an ace. He has always looked too hittable to me, which is more related to missing spots than missing the strike zone. Maybe I'm just catching him on those days where he is less effective, but I've seen him several times. He's just not for me.
Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays) – Bassitt is an interesting study. His four-seam fastball isn't overpowering (about 92 mph), but he does generate relatively good movement with it. His secondary pitches are average. That was enough to get him by for a while, but as I kept watching, teams started recognizing and sitting on the fastball until they got something in the hitting zone. He does throw strikes, which helps, but his pedestrian stuff and general inability to miss that many bats overall bring up red flags for me. Some may be looking for him to rebound in 2025 after suffering through his worst season in recent memory, but I'm afraid we have already seen his best. I'm passing.
Walker Buehler (Dodgers) – He missed years as he recovered from a couple different procedures on his elbow, including Tommy John surgery. He was good before 2021, but that was his coming-out season as he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 207 innings. He got off to a similar start in 2022 before the injuries set in. And, heading into 2025, Buehler remains a shadow of himself. Sometimes we forget that only about 90 percent of those who experience major elbow injuries make it all the way back. Me and my damned extended memory have trouble separating him from the pitcher he used to be. He was once one of the elite and now a realist would ask if that is over. I'll still root for him but I'm going to try and avoid drafting him.
Michael Wacha (Royals) – It's not something I look at as a positive when relatively successful pitchers change uniforms year after year. Since 2019 Wacha has pitched for six different teams, one year each in St. Louis, New York (NL), Tampa Bay, Boston, San Diego and Kansas City. Most of those would be considered pitcher friendly organizations, but even though he has generally pitched pretty well, they don't bring him back. When I watch him and he pitches well, I find myself thinking he's doing it with smoke and mirrors. Are these teams seeing the same thing. He's on a one-year contract again, but with a player option for next season. I guess we'll see if he comes back to the Royals, but I just don't have the necessary faith to pursue him.
Tobias Myers (Brewers) – This is a kid who has managed to make a positive impact at the MLB level this year. I'm just skeptical about his ability to carry that over into 2025. I don't necessarily see a major meltdown, but he strikes me as an average, back-of-the-rotation type. He has modest stuff with a 92 to 93 mph fastball, decent, but not outstanding, breaking pitches and just so-so command. He gives up too many hard-hit balls, with too many of those landing in the seats, plus he has been a bit lucky (.281 BABIP). Bottom line is I expect some regression next season.
I can't help myself, LOL. On draft day 2025, consider pursuing these arms:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – When Yamamoto first arrived from Japan, there was considerable hype, and he probably went for a premium price in most leagues. Unfortunately, he didn't get a chance to pay dividends, going down with a triceps injury in mid-June after just 14 starts. Those starts were pretty credible – he was 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 74 innings – but I'm banking on owners forgetting about him, perhaps reducing his 2025 price tag. He had a couple weak rehab starts at Triple-A Oklahoma City and has just come back to the Dodgers, facing the Cubs earlier this week. I really need some mediocre innings the next couple weeks.
Bryan Woo (Mariners) – I'm going to make a rash prediction that the Dodgers and Seattle will meet in the 2025 World Series. That's why there are starters from each team on this list, and I could easily add more Mariners behind Woo. His 2024 numbers are fair, actually better than I would like to help deflate his price (2.36 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), but the Mariners have been judiciously monitoring his workload. He has good stuff, and he's not afraid to throw any pitch in any situation. I think that's what I like best. He has smooth mechanics, poise and maturity on the mound. The only thing missing is a higher strikeout rate, and I see that coming.
Pablo Lopez (Twins) – Maybe this will be something of a sleeper? His 2024 numbers are just fair (4.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but it's been a tale of two seasons. He has good stuff but he couldn't get in sync early on, entering July with an unsightly 5.18 ERA, but then things started to click. Since then, he has seen his ERA fall steadily as command of his full repertoire has improved, giving him a lot more weapons. Still best of it all, his sweeper, introduced last season, remains his out pitch, and he is riding it. I like his stuff, and I love his mound presence, so I look forward to big things next season.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- The Cubs' Shota Imanaga has been quite a surprise this season. He was seen as a second-tier Japanese import with just fair stuff compared to some of the bigger names, but he's 12-3 with a very impressive 2.99 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has been a little homer-prone as expected, but minimizing baserunners helps.
- I'm not sure Garrett Crochet owners can deploy him in their rotation these days. Don't get me wrong, I still love his stuff, but his workload this season has taken its toll. Basically, he's out of gas. I'd be tempted to inquire as to his availability for a trade, but I fear the White Sox are in for another horrible season in 2025.
- I still consider the Mets' Kodai Senga a starting pitcher, but he has been racked with injuries this year, and the Mets may bring him back in relief to close out this season. I don't expect to see save chances, but if he throws strikes, especially that filthy forkball he features, he could be very effective in a long relief role.
- The long awaited 2024 debut of the Rangers' Jacob deGrom is right around the corner, probably this coming weekend. He is clearly one of, if not the, best pitcher in the game when he's actually pitching, but he hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season in five years. He does usually come out ready to go.
- Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers has arguably benefited the most from his change in latitude at the trade deadline. In Detroit he was the definition of inconsistency. However, he recently turned in seven-plus scoreless innings and has allowed more than three runs just once in his last 10 starts. I think the team re-signs him.
Endgame Odyssey:
The Angels closer of the future, Ben Joyce, has changed hats and is pretty much the closer of today. He has one of the best arms in the game but he also has a sore shoulder. To be continued in 2025. The Nats' Kyle Finnegan has not been the most reliable closer of late, but he's their guy and will continue to see the majority of save chances. The Blue Jays have run up the white flag on Jordan Romano's 2024 season. He experienced an elbow problem, underwent a procedure to correct it, but the rehab has been on and off, so they announced they are looking ahead to spring training. Check his winter contract status for a tip-off regarding his anticipated health. Meanwhile, Chad Green is likely to continue serving as their primary closer despite his recent struggles. I'm curious to see what the Red Sox do with Liam Hendriks. He's due back soon, and while I don't expect him to supplant Kenley Jansen as their closer this year, Janson's contract expires at the end of this season. Camilo Doval entered this season as San Francisco's closer, but inconsistency eventually wore thin, and it's safe to say Ryan Walker has taken over primary ninth-inning duties.
It's that time. Next week we'll take a look at my annual selections for 2024 awards!
