Mound Musings: Examining the Trade Deadline Deals

The trade deadline has come and gone, and wow, what a ride! Everybody was looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there wasn't all that much starting pitching available. That didn't slow all of the contenders. They cleaned out the handful of starters, then went to work in earnest on stockpiling relief arms.

I think teams are already seeing the potential problems that will arise as innings totals accumulate. That is contributing to more injuries, and undoubtedly creating ineffective pitchers who are simply running out of gas. Therefore, while quality was again important, there were some pitchers – both starters and relievers – who were added just to provide innings. Extra arms equal at least some rest for the pitchers you are counting on. That said, let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved:

Danny Duffy to Los Angeles (NL):

An interesting add by the Dodgers. They have been thinned with Clayton Kershaw currently on the IL and Trevor Bauer on indefinite administrative leave, so they went out and acquired Duffy from the Royals, just in case. Duffy is actually also on the IL with a mild flexor strain, but he is expected back later this month. He has been one of the most notable pitchers in the game this year for me. He reworked his base mechanics and revamped his pitch sequencing, turning himself into a different, and much more effective, starting pitcher. He could be in the rotation later, which will help keep workloads under control, and, when he's healthy, I think he's a good play on a very good team.

Max Scherzer to Los Angeles (NL):

I don't know what to say. Ten days ago, on paper, the Dodgers had the best roster in baseball top to bottom. Now they add Scherzer AND Turner? First, Trea Turner. There are a lot of generational shortstops right now, but he is an under-recognized part of that group. If you tell me my shortstop going forward is Turner, and not one of the other super-kids, I'm totally good with that. But we're here to look at pitching, and Scherzer is still a stud at age 37. I just don't know if he is the No. 1 in Dodgertown. Walker Buehler is a legitimate game one/game seven starter. And then after that we have Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw and … It's borderline ridiculous. And, I don't want to discount the return. I love Josiah Gray, and he's going to be tossing pitches to Keibert Ruiz for a long time, but for right now, the Dodgers are simply loaded.

Jose Berrios to Toronto:

My prediction from two weeks ago in the Musings: Here's a fun prediction. The Blue Jays return to the Rogers Centre in Toronto on trade deadline day. I expect this young team to put on an unforgettable show over the last two months of the season, and to get things off to a flying start, perhaps they can acquire Jose Berrios? Now that would make a statement. The Jays paid a very hefty price including Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin – two blue chippers in their farm system, but the deal makes them an instant pennant contender, and will carry over as Berrios is under team control through next season. I am a believer in energy, and this should ignite the players and their fans. 

Kyle Gibson to Philadelphia:

Gibson changed his pitch mix this season, and it paid off. Despite a cold stretch over the last couple weeks, he was still one of the best starting pitchers available at the deadline. The Phillies definitely needed that, and they landed him along with a real closer (Kennedy). He made his first start for Philadelphia over the weekend and pitched reasonably well, albeit against a weak opponent, so there is reason to be optimistic the rest of the way. The defense behind him is still pretty shoddy, but I expect the Phillies to make a run. Going the other way, Spencer Howard lands in Texas. I like that add. Maybe not this year, but he was pretty well-regarded not so long ago. A variety of injuries have tarnished his numbers in 2021, but he needs to be monitored. There should be plenty of opportunity with the Rangers going forward.

Trevor Williams to New York (NL):

Williams has not been good – okay, even usable in fantasy – since 2018. He was sent down to Triple-A right after the deal, and he will presumably be there until the Mets need someone to contribute innings. His mediocre stuff and command make him less than appealing, so unless he has a major turnaround, he can be ignored.

Andrew Heaney to New York (AL):

I love the "changes in latitudes" angle, and this deal has all the makings of being just that. Like most Angels pitchers, about as far back as I can remember, Heaney has been a consistent underperformer. He has pitched nearly 600 innings over seven seasons, compiling a ho-hum 4.59 ERA with an equally ordinary 1.26 WHIP. He strikes out about a batter per inning, but allows a few too many hard-hit balls, typically at inopportune times, and disappoints fantasy owners on an annual basis. That said, he has always looked capable of better. Now he changes uniforms, and heads to New York, which is supposed to favor lefties. This could be the change in scenery he needs.

J.A. Happ to St. Louis:

The Cardinals almost appear to be treading water. In their division, the Cubs and Pirates are two of the worst teams in baseball. The division-leading Brewers added Willy Adames and Eduardo Escobar, which helps, and the Reds collected some bullpen arms, which may or may not be a boost, but the Cardinals additions, like Happ, would seem to be hoping for lightning in a bottle. Happ, a veteran lefty, has been horrible this season, but he has a history of contributing when it counts. Do you feel lucky?

Jon Lester to St. Louis:

See above. Veteran lefty, has been awful this year, once a pretty reliable starter capable of tossing quality innings. He checks all the same boxes. Can lightning strike twice in the same place? I like Happ's chances slightly more, but you have to squint to find a reason to climb on board with either. The lightning the Cardinals need is named Jack Flaherty.

And, in the bullpen, there were many moves of note …

Brad Hand to Toronto:

I think this was an excellent acquisition by the Jays, but I do have significant concerns. IMHO, Jordan Romano is the best option to close games, and Hand has always been better-suited to a set-up role. If that happens, great. I can even see Hand closing when Romano needs a day off, or even if the matchups in the ninth strongly call for a southpaw, but the Jays have spent most of the year trying to emphasize that Romano is not "the" closer, and that worries me. I am typically not a big fan of committees, as I think relievers usually fare better with a defined role, but we'll see where this goes.

Ryan Tepera to Chicago (AL):

The Cubs continue to clean house, this time with a key set-up guy moving across town to the South Side of Chicago. Tepera has been very steady this season for the Cubs, pitching almost exclusively in the seventh or eighth innings, and he should continue in that role for the White Sox. His net fantasy value probably remains about the same. While the Sox are a better team, generating more wins, he is likely to see more competition for holds chances in his new bullpen.

Diego Castillo to Seattle:

When the Mariners dealt Kendall Graveman, arguably their best reliever, to the Astros for Abraham Toro, their GM said everyone would understand eventually. It would seem he tried to be true to his word. The M's sent JT Chargois, a fairly run of the mill middle reliever, to Tampa Bay for Castillo who is probably a slight upgrade over Graveman specifically as a closer. Plus, they added the talented Toro, so maybe it's a marginal win. The moves initially looked like a bump in value for a couple guys, but now it likely means Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider should remain in their set-up roles.

Daniel Hudson to San Diego:

The Padres had one of the best bullpens in the game, and the acquisition of Hudson made it a whole lot better. Many people discount their closer Mark Melancon, but he's top of the list, leading the majors in saves, and doing it day in and day out. Now the Friars have southpaw Drew Pomeranz and Hudson to provide the bridge to their endgamer. Hudson is an elite set-up guy, but he is capable of closing in a pinch – he finished the deciding game of the 2019 World Series – so you can count him as an ideal insurance policy. The Padres are good. Bump him up a notch.

Craig Kimbrel to Chicago (AL):

As the deadline approached, there were quite a few teams circling the Cubs available players including Kimbrel, and it had to be something of a surprise seeing him go to the cross-town White Sox. With the White Sox already owning arguably the best closer in the American League in Liam Hendriks, and having bolstered their pen with Kimbrel's Cubs teammate Tepera, Kimbrel looks almost like a luxury. The biggest question is who, if either, becomes the primary closer. The word is it could be a shared role – absolutely devastating for fantasy owners of both pitchers, but I really think/hope Hendriks gets the lion's share. The depth should certainly help the Sox avoid overworking their key relievers. The Cubs received Nick Madrigal and pitcher Codi Heuer in return. Heuer is not an especially appealing candidate for late-inning work, but there is not much left to choose from, so he will probably be auditioned, and the Cubs will hope for the best.

Ian Kennedy to Philadelphia:

For the first time in a very long time, the Phillies have a competent, real closer. While it wasn't accompanied by horns blowing and a big parade, this might actually be one of the more useful additions by any team on deadline day. Kennedy is a good, not great, veteran who has taken well to late-inning relief work. More importantly, this allows the team to deploy others – most notably Hector Neris – in roles they are more comfortable filling. In my eyes, if the pieces come together the next two months, the Phillies may now be the favorite to win the NL East, and Kennedy would be a huge part of that.

Joakim Soria to Toronto:

One of my all-time favorite closers moves to a very good team but probably moves out of a closer's role. He'll presumably serve as a set-up guy and could still be useful in holds leagues given the wins Toronto could accumulate the rest of the season. The deal does leave a pretty big hole at the end of the Arizona bullpen. I like J.B. Bukauskas, but he has been hurt/struggled so he may not be there yet. Stefan Crichton? He's had a lot of chances and he's still not a closer. Could it really be Tyler Clippard? Wow.

Richard Rodriguez to Atlanta:

The Braves got hit with some significant injuries, but they clearly haven't given up. Rodriguez pitched pretty well in the closer's role with the Pirates, but I'm not convinced that is his best role. Ideally, he would serve as an eighth-inning guy, but the door is open a crack since the Braves closer, Will Smith, has that same nameplate. My guess is Smith remains the primary closer, but Rodriguez could garner a save or two along the way when matchups dictate.

Tony Watson to San Francisco:

Watson has long been a reliable set-up guy. Well, until this year. He goes back to the Giants where he has had most of his success, so maybe he comes back to form. He's not going to close – he shouldn't – and this pen has options to pitch higher-leverage innings, but he could work his way back into holds fairly quickly.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The moves made by the Angels opened a rotation spot for Reid Detmers. He was burning it up in the minors, but he came back to Earth in his first MLB start against the A's. I don't concern myself with that first start or two. He has the tools, so let's see if he can settle down and settle in. Keep watching.
• The Cardinals added Happ and Lester, and getting Flaherty back will be huge, but another quality arm has looked good while rehabbing a forearm injury. Barring any setbacks, Miles Mikolas could be back soon, and, if fully healthy, he could be a fantasy option once he gets some innings logged.
• The Yankees made some dramatic moves to try and push for a playoff berth, then promptly lost Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery to the Covid-19 list. We were just getting primed for an exciting August/September, then this. I sincerely hope the playoff grid isn't decided by this damn virus. Depth is the word.
• The Dodgers signed veteran Cole Hamels earlier this week. He hasn't pitched since 2019 as he tried to overcome some issues with his shoulder, and at age 37, it's hard to say what's left in the tank. He looked pretty good in a showcase, but I can't see him pitching at the MLB level until September, if then.
• The Rays and Tyler Glasnow took a while to consider the options with his partially torn UCL, but in the end, Tommy John surgery was the necessary path. By getting the surgery behind him, he'll likely miss all of next season, but should hopefully be ready to roll in the spring of 2023. That's a long way off though.

Endgame Odyssey:

The post-deadline Odyssey could be unparalleled in opportunities for wild speculation. I count 10 – yeah, amazingly, 10 – teams without any semblance of a true closer. I could write an entire column (or maybe two) on the pros – pretty short – and cons of the pretenders and contenders for saves down the stretch. You can look for that next week when hopefully things may have begun to sort out. But, for now, maybe take a look at these guys. Let's start with the Cubs. They went from one of the best bullpens to one of the worst in 48 hours. Their best closer candidate is probably Rowan Wick, but he is rehabbing an injury. I expect to see someone different in the ninth inning every (rare) time they have a lead. Let the auditions begin. Anthony Bender might be the favorite for saves in Miami, but I still think Dylan Floro is the best choice. Bender fits in a more versatile role. In Baltimore, Hunter Harvey can't get/stay healthy leaving the gig to Cole Sulser, or maybe Dillon Tate is a dark horse. I'll pass. The woeful Rangers are trying Spencer Patton after Kennedy was dealt. They also have Josh Sborz, but neither excites me. Taylor Rogers could be out for the year leaving a vacancy in the Twins bullpen. They could try Alex Colome again or maybe the on again, off again Tyler Duffey, but I like a potential sleeper. Keep an eye on Jorge Alcala.