Mound Musings: AL West Draft Day Targets

Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. This sixth segment features a look at the American League West. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you're prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:

American League West

Houston Astros – Top to bottom, this staff is one of the best in baseball, and they have the luxury of pitching in front of an exceptionally potent offense. After recently toiling for a pretty ordinary team, Justin Verlander moved to Houston, and presto, he immediately rediscovered the fountain of stud. I expect more of the same this season, setting him up to be in the running for a Cy Young. Dallas Keuchel routinely goes earlier in drafts than I feel comfortable taking him. There are a handful of pitchers who outperform their stuff, and for me Keuchel falls into that category. Don't get me wrong, he's a solid starter, but I just can't seem to jump in with both feet. And, the rich get richer, as the Astros acquired another potential ace in Gerrit Cole. He was haunted by the long ball last year and posted numbers well below his ceiling. If he comes at even a minimal discount, I'm buying. He's followed by Lance McCullers who also has upside remaining. When healthy he can be an impact arm, and even their expected fifth starter would be higher on the food chain of most teams. Charlie Morton has become a solid starter, in part because of a spike in velocity (now touching 97 mph) he has displayed the past couple of seasons. I'm not as excited about Collin McHugh, but even he's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter if needed. They even have top-shelf talent down on the farm with prospects Francis Martes and Forrest Whitley. Martes' fastball and curveball are already MLB good. He just needs to improve his change-up while refining his overall command to make the show – if they can find room. Whitley will serve a suspension to begin the season, but he should be rostered in dynasty formats.

This may also be one of the deepest bullpens in the division. Ken Giles is the choice to close games, and he has the big arm to get the job done as long as he stays somewhere in the vicinity of the strike zone. He'll be supported by a capable cast including Chris Devenski (who can pitch multiple innings out of the pen). Joe Smith is a proven set-up guy, as are Will Harris and Tony Sipp. Finally, the crowded rotation pushes Brad Peacock into a relief role (where he's actually better suited) but he could serve as a spot starter or even close games if the need should arise.

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to own:Justin Verlander
He's not for me:Dallas Keuchel
Best of the bullpen:Ken Giles

Los Angeles Angels – While some teams are considering a four-man rotation, the Angels are contemplating going with six starters. There is a good reason. Baseball's version of a M.A.S.H. unit could theoretically benefit from lighter workloads and more rest. We'll see. The challenge is finding enough competent arms to pull it off. At the top of their rotation stands (or will stand) the ultra-hyped, Japanese import, Shohei Ohtani. Don't let his spring numbers or the whispers of him possibly beginning the season at Triple-A scare you off. It's not unusual for an import to require some time to get his feet on the ground, and Ohtani is the real deal. He'll be an ace, and it won't take long. If fully healthy, I'd also pursue Garrett Richards with enthusiasm. He looks healthy, so it's more about staying that way. I'd love to have him, but I'll need a risk discount. The next pair offer similar value equations. Both Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney flash ability often enough to catch my eye, but both lefties are still looking for the consistency required to move them up on my draft list, and Heaney has been dealing with a chronic elbow, which makes him riskier yet. Matt Shoemaker can be pretty good at times, just not nearly often enough to earn my trust. I'll pass on him, and the most likely sixth starter, Nick Tropeano. Not surprisingly, going deeper down the food chain, you find guys like Parker Bridwell and Jesse Chavez. If they are in your rotation plans, the waiver wire could be your best friend. The other arm I was looking forward to seeing this season is off the board until 2019 as he rehabs from late-2017 shoulder surgery. I love the stuff I see from Alex Meyer, and the 6'10" righty was still searching for that elusive release point. However, it looked like the light might have been coming on.

This is the definition of an unsettled bullpen. It's not that the Angels wouldn't like defined roles heading into the season, the fact is health question marks and questionable roles are making that difficult. Ideally (maybe), Cam Bedrosian will stay healthy enough, and be effective enough, to take and hold the job. Neither is a given. If Bedrosian goes down, the next name on the list would probably be Blake Parker, but he's better suited to a more flexible role. Kenyan Middleton has the arm for the job, but he's homer prone due to shaky command. Down the road he could be a dark horse candidate. They also added Jim Johnson who has some closing experience, but he's really a set-up guy. In my eyes, this is a good bullpen to avoid if possible.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to own:Shohei Ohtani and/or Garrett Richards
He's not for me:Matt Shoemaker
Best of the bullpen:Cam Bedrosian if you just have to have one

Oakland A's – At this time last year, I was extremely high on Sean Manaea. I'm going there again. Unfortunately, a medical condition sapped his core strength and caused significant weight loss as the year wore on. That should be corrected now, and his darkened 2017 stats could create bargain pricing on draft day. I'm not so excited about the rest of the A's projected starting staff. I had hoped Jharel Cotton could bounce back, but Tommy John surgery has taken him out of the picture. Daniel Mengden (I suppose he's the best of the rest) will have a spot in the rotation and so too will Kendall Graveman, but neither will be on my radar. Andrew Triggs and perhaps the recently signed Trevor Cahill and/or Brett Anderson will serve as warm bodies until (hopefully) a couple of their kids can be ready. A.J. Puk and Frankie Montas potentially could collect some starts at some point this year, and both have some upside, albeit with quite a bit of risk at this stage of their development. Once Manaea is off the board, I'm likely to move on to other rotations with more appealing options.

Late last season, the team dealt their best relievers – Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle – and installed one of the pieces they got back, Blake Treinen, as their closer. Treinen has the arm for it and will be given every chance to lock down the job, but he hasn't quite convinced me he has the required moxy. That leads me to shop for possible alternatives. Topping my list is quite the sleeper. I liked what I saw when Ryan Buchter was in San Diego. Keep an eye on him. The other, perhaps more likely candidate, would probably be newcomer Emilio Pagan. At worst he should be a quality set-up man. The rest of the bullpen is rather deep with guys like veteran Santiago Casilla, the versatile Liam Hendricks and Chris Hatcher. They probably won't get many save chances but they'll try to get the game to Treinen or whomever claims the ninth inning long term.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to own:Sean Manaea
He's not for me:Kendall Graveman
Best of the bullpen:Blake Treinen but keep an eye on Ryan Buchter

Seattle Mariners – For many years, Felix Hernandez has been the name associated with Mariners' pitching. He's just 31, but he now has logged more than 2,500 major league innings. That equates to his arm being more like 40, and it looks like the mileage is catching up to him. His velocity has dipped, and he has dealt with nagging injuries for two seasons. He could still be a serviceable starter, but don't pay top dollar. The king may be about ready to cede his crown to James Paxton. He has a nasty injury history, but, if he can stay healthy (and regularly hit his spots) he has the skill set to be a huge asset. I'm inclined to say it's on the horizon. After the first pair, the skies become a little cloudier. Mike Leake should have a spot, and he's capable of filling in at the back of a fantasy rotation. After that, it appears Marco Gonzales and Ariel Miranda will be in line at numbers four and five. Both are fringy southpaws, and will have to pitch well to hold spots once Erasmo Ramirez (late April) and Hisashi Iwakuma (late May) are ready to return from injuries. Iwakuma is a wily veteran, but his best days are likely behind him. Still, if he gets back to 100 percent, he might be able to help a fantasy squad as a match-up option in deeper leagues.

Despite some pretty significant bumps in the road early last year, young Edwin Diaz emerged with the closer's role at the season's end. He probably won't see anything in the rearview mirror this year. Diaz has electric stuff including an upper 90s fastball and a sharp upper 80s slider that miss a lot of bats. He's legitimate. It also helps his job security to know there is little else in the pen to really threaten him. They did add veteran Juan Nicasio who will serve as Diaz' primary set-up man, He'll be preceded in games by David Phelps, Nick Vincent and lefty James Pazos, but none of them are serious closer candidates. The sleeper, albeit very deep, is Dan Altavilla.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to own:James Paxton
He's not for me:Erasmo Ramirez
Best of the bullpen:Edwin Diaz

Texas Rangers – The Rangers enter the season with an intriguing pitching staff. They, like the Angels, are toying with the idea of a six-man rotation. Apparently exempt from that plan is staff leader Cole Hamels, who may have the best change-up in the AL and will hope to put an injury-marred 2017 behind him. After Hamels, things get interesting. Martin Perez isn't horrible, and maybe a little extra rest between starts will help. Still, his lack of consistent command pushes me away. Doug Fister and Bartolo Colon are the only righties expected to slot into the rotation, but they won't be toeing the rubber for any of my fantasy teams. That leaves a couple more southpaws I might take a look at. Matt Moore has consistently disappointed since ranking near the top of my prospect watch list, but he has shown some flashes this spring, and that may be enough for me to give him one more chance. The price should be right. Then there's Mike Minor. He was pretty successful as a reliever, but the Rangers are going to let him try starting again. Label me skeptical, but extra rest and shorter outings could mask his vulnerabilities. Jesse Chavez could possibly get into the mix (I'll pass), and there's perhaps potential help on the way in yet another lefty, Yohander Mendez, but he's not a great prospect, and probably needs more work against advanced hitters at the Triple-A level.

This could be a case of throwing names in a hat, and drawing one out heading into the ninth inning. Last season, Alex Claudio finished the year as the Texas closer. Yet another lefty, I just can't see him and his mid-80s fastball lasting long term. Probably best suited for the gig is Keone Kela, but he's been fighting chronic shoulder issues, and that might be enough to scratch him as the primary closer. Jake Diekman has far more tools than Claudio, but he missed most of 2017 with medical issues (ulcerative colitis) so he'll need to prove he is able to handle the workload. Matt Bush closed for a time, but he has shown he fits better in lower leverage situations. Are you getting the idea? Finally, don't overlook Tim Lincecum. His velocity has reportedly been rather encouraging, and he might just rise up from the ashes and surprise a lot of people.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to own:Matt Moore (have a Plan B ready)
He's not for me:Doug Fister
Best of the bullpen:Jake Diekman or Tim Lincecum

For next time, we'll jump into an expanded view of the Endgame Odyssey with an eye for potential fantasy value.