MLB Picks: World Series Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Playoffs: World Series Odds, Picks and Predictions

This time last year, the Rangers and Diamondbacks were several weeks into their winter vacations, coming off regular seasons in which they finished with 68 and 74 wins, respectively. Two years ago, things were even worse, with the Rangers winning 60 games and the Diamondbacks winning just 52, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in baseball. The remarkable speed of their respective turnarounds means you can expect to see plenty of young talent on display in the World Series, with rookies Josh Jung, Evan Carter, Corbin Carroll and Brandon Pfaadt all set to play big roles this series. 

Texas has supplemented their young core with several big signings, with Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jacob deGrom (out with Tommy John surgery) receiving a combined $685 million over the past two winters, driving the team's payroll up to fourth-highest in the league. Arizona's payroll remains mired in 21st, with the largest contract the team has given out over the past two winters being Mark Melancon's two-year, $14 million deal in December of 2021.

That lack of investment from Arizona owner Ken Kendrick and the fact that the Diamondbacks won just 84 games in the regular season suggests that they've perhaps arrived a year or two too early, and the bookmakers certainly seem to think so, as we'll get to in a moment. Then again, Arizona did add key pieces at the deadline and hasn't looked out of place among the league's elite thus far in October, going 9-3 against a trio of teams that finished with at least 90 wins.

Below, I'll make the case for each team and share how I would bet on them if I were to lean their way. I'll also share my favorite World Series MVP pick for each team. First, let's set the scene with the odds and some key stats.

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MLB World Series Odds

Here are the odds for both teams to win outright as well as to win in a specific number of games, as found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Rangers (-170)
• Diamondbacks (+145)
• Rangers in 4 (+950)
• Rangers in 5 (+500)
• Rangers in 6 (+390)
• Rangers in 7 (+400)
• Diamondbacks in 4 (+1700)
• Diamondbacks in 5 (+700)
• Diamondbacks in 6 (+650)
• Diamondbacks in 7 (+600) 

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Key Regular Season Stats

Playoff Stats Comparison

The Case for the Rangers

The case for the Rangers is the more straightforward one, as you would expect from the teams' respective odds. Texas was clearly the stronger team in both the lineup and rotation during the regular season, and while they had quite a poor bullpen, Arizona wasn't strong in that area either. To put it another way: while the Rangers may not look like anything more than a mid-tier playoff team, the Diamondbacks look like a team that wouldn't have had a shot at the postseason in most years back when the field had just eight or 10 teams.

If the Rangers do indeed finish the season as champions, it will almost certainly be their lineup that gets them there. The group scored 5.4 runs per game in the regular season and an even better 5.9 against the best arms in the business this postseason, and it's in its best shape of the year right now. Notable injuries have struck the Texas rotation, but the team's only injured hitter is Brad Miller (hamstring), who might not have even made the playoff roster. Not only is the lineup without significant absences, but, it's also benefited from a significant addition: Evan Carter didn't debut until Sept. 8 but recorded a 1.058 OPS in 23 regular season games and owns a .987 OPS in 12 playoff contests.

While it does definitely get dicey on the pitching side, the group has held its own this postseason and has done enough to let the offense shine. Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA) both have sub-2.50 ERAs through four postseason starts and won't look out of place on the biggest stage. If Max Scherzer's third start back from a shoulder injury represents a big step forward from his previous two (9.45 ERA), the rotation becomes a genuine strength, though it's hard to count on him at this point. Rangers fans won't have much confidence in their fourth starter, whoever it ends up being, but that will be true among the Diamondbacks faithful as well.

Best Rangers Bet 

• Rangers Total Runs over 31.5 (+230, DraftKings)

While I'd take the Rangers at even odds to win the series, I just can't get behind a team with their bullpen weaknesses at a payout no better than -170, an implied probability of 63 percent. If Scherzer had given us any real reasons for confidence during the ALCS, I might look their way, or perhaps advocate for them to win in six or fewer games (+120 at DraftKings) as a way to secure a more attractive return. But while Texas' pitching staff doesn't inspire confidence, its lineup is as deep as you could ask for and has gotten hot at the right time. The math on this bet means they'd need to average 8.0 runs per game in a four-game sweep, 6.4 runs in a five-game series, 5.3 runs per game in a six-game series and just 4.6 runs per game if this goes the distance. That means that even if Texas' bats fall back to regular-season levels, this bet should hit as long as the series goes at least six games. If the bats explode and Texas steamrolls Arizona in four or five, they still have a good chance of hitting the over. Altogether, the odds are fairly friendly for those who want to bet on the Rangers in some way without sweating out every Aroldis Chapman 3-0 count.

Rangers World Series MVP Pick

•  Evan Carter (+2000, DraftKings)

Pitchers have only won two of the last 14 World Series MVPs, so a hitter would be the wise pick here even if the Rangers weren't such an offense-first team. Three of the last four hitters to win the award — Steve Pearce (2018), Jorge Soler (2021) and Jeremy Pena (2022) — were nowhere near their team's best hitter during the regular season, so I'm not particularly interested in any of the favorites, either, even if Corey Seager (+550) was the lone exception with his win in 2020. If we're looking for a longshot hitter, why not the 21-year-old Carter, who's been one of the hottest hitters in baseball ever since his arrival in early September? He's already locked into the third spot in the lineup — only against righties, but the Diamondbacks don't have any left-handed starters — which should give him plenty of chances to pad his run and RBI totals, plus his storyline could give him a narrative-based edge if two teammates are equally qualified.

The Case for the Diamondbacks

The case for the Diamondbacks starts from the very simple premise that virtually any underdog is interesting in a seven-game series, because seven is so much smaller than 162. It just isn't very hard for a team that was much better over the course of 162 games to lose four times out of seven, to say nothing of two teams who were only separated by six regular-season wins. Any team that proves to be good enough to at least win the World Series deserves fair consideration to win it if priced at +145 like these Diamondbacks are.

We have to start with that generalized argument because, as you can see from the Key Stats table above, the Diamondbacks don't have too many obvious advantages to speak of. One advantage they do have is in the bullpen, however. Thanks to the key addition of closer Paul Sewald at the deadline, the Arizona relief corps jumped up to eighth in ERA- since Aug. 1; Texas improved marginally over that same stretch but still sat 22nd in that category. Texas' top trio (Jose Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman and Josh Sborz) may have a 2.49 ERA this postseason, but it comes with an unimpressive 21:14 K:BB in 25.1 frames. Arizona's most-used trio of Sewald, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson owns a 0.98 ERA and 32:6 K:BB in 27.2 innings this October.

Finally, while neither the Diamondbacks rotation nor lineup is particularly intimidating, both units are in better shape than their season-long metrics indicate. Brandon Pfaadt's 2.72 postseason ERA (backed by 22:3 K:BB) is easier to buy into given the prospect hype he had prior to his 5.72 ERA in the regular season, and if he remains anything close to that level, he'll give Arizona three trusted starters behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. (As noted above, the fourth starter spot will be an adventure for both teams.) Offensively, the addition of Tommy Pham makes opposing lefties a bit less of an Achilles heel, but it's Arizona's speed on the basepaths which is really what makes their wRC+ unreflective of their true ability. Led by Corbin Carroll's 54 steals, the team ranked second in stolen bases during the regular season and leads the way with 16 steals in 12 games this postseason.

Best Diamondbacks Bet

•  Diamondbacks to Win World Series (+148, FanDuel)

As noted previously, I would pick the Rangers and their dominant lineup to win the series if given +100 odds on both teams. But the oddsmakers have simply baked in too much of an advantage for Texas, here, making a straightforward bet on Arizona an attractive one. Their odds of +148 implies a 40.3 percent chance to win; the projections over at FanGraphs give them a 47.2 percent chance. The respective playoff performances of Pfaadt and Scherzer goes a long way towards making this underdog pick palatable; the team's starters in Games 1 and 2 are comparable, and Game 4 figures to be a scramble on both sides, but the Diamondbacks may in fact have the more reliable Game 3 starter at the moment despite the differing lengths of their two career resumes. Toss in a further advantage in the bullpen and it becomes easy enough to envision the Diamondbacks capping off their Cinderella run.

Diamondbacks World Series MVP Pick

•  Corbin Carroll (+1000, DraftKings)

While making my Rangers MVP pick, I noted that the favorites weren't typically great bets. I'll make an exception for Carroll, however. The Rangers have such a deep lineup that it isn't hard to envision them winning even while someone like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien or Adolis Garcia completely blanks. The Diamondbacks don't have that luxury, so it's hard to imagine them pulling off the upset without Carroll being at the center of it. Despite being a rookie, Carroll is already not just a sparkplug leadoff man (.362 OBP) who energizes his team with his legs (54 steals), he's also Arizona's best hitter (25 HR, 133 wRC+). His huge day in Game 7 of the NLCS — 3-for-4 with two runs, two RBI and two steals — helped the Diamondbacks pull off their third consecutive upset, and if they manage to make it four series in a row, expect Carroll to be the center of attention throughout.

World Series Picks

• Rangers Total Runs over 31.5 (+230, DraftKings)
• -OR-
• Diamondbacks to Win World Series (+148, FanDuel)

World Series MVP Picks

• Evan Carter (+2000, DraftKings)
• -OR-
• Corbin Carroll (+1000, DraftKings)