This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: Expert MLB Props for Tuesday, August 13
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Atlanta Braves 
at San Francisco Giants 
Among the certainties in life are death, taxes and the Atlanta Braves winning the National League East. But barring an unlikely turnaround, we will not see the latter in 2024. The Phillies have left the door open, but the Braves have slumped big time. As much as I would like to dance all over the Braves while they are uncharacteristically down, no team could withstand their insanely bad injury luck. 2024 National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and pretty widely recognized best-starting pitcher in MLB, Spencer Strider, both will next play in 2025. Ozzie Albies may come back late and Michael Harris Jr. should return tomorrow, but both have missed large chunks of the season and did not perform near 2024 levels when they did play. Of those who remain, all but Marcell Ozuna have had down seasons, though Austin Riley has hit well over the last two months.
They face Kyle Harrison, the top-tier Giants lefty prospect putting up a very mixed bag of a season. Harrison has pitched to a rather meh 4.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP combo, with 97 strikeouts in 106 innings. Look a little deeper and he has given the Giants a pretty much league-average performance. He has a 21.7 percent strikeout rate with a meh 9.2 percent SwStr rate in roughly 5.5 innings of work per start. Harrison does not stand out in limiting contact well either with a 10 percent Barrel rate, a 43.5 percent Hard-Hit rate and a 90.7 miles per hour exit velocity.
Kyle Harrison Over 5 Strikeouts (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Now that I have spent a paragraph highlighting Harrison as a replacement-level starter (he has a 0.8 WAR incidentally), why go over on a prop? Well, he has shown flashes of strikeout upside. In two recent starts vs. the Rockies, he recorded six and 11 strikeouts in consecutive starts. Yes, the Rockies swing and miss with the absolute best of them. But you know who else acts like a team of human wind turbines? Yes, the 2024 Atlanta Braves. The 2023 Braves fanned at just a 20.6 percent clip. This year's version has a 24.7 percent strikeout rate K%, the fifth-worst mark in MLB, and that number has spiked to 28.2 percent since the All-Star break. That higher strikeout rate likely reflects the true level of this current team as Jorge Soler (25.1 percent strikeout rate on the season) and Adam Duvall (30.9 percent strikeout rate) replace Acuna (23.9 percent strikeout rate) and Harris (21.2 percent strikeout rate) in the outfield while Whit Merrifield (22.5 percent strikeout rate) takes over at second for Albies (15.5 percent strikeout rate).
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Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The relatively unheralded shortstop/outfielder has taken the league by storm since the All-Star break. In 23 games, he has smashed 10 homers, with 21 runs and 17 RBI to go with a sizzling .333/.394/.756 triple slash line. What's more, he will bat leadoff vs. the ageless and often erratic Charlie Morton. The 40-year-old got pounded in his last outing to the tune of four homers, nine hits, a walk and eight runs in 2.2 innings vs. the Brewers. In two starts before that, the Mets chafed him for three homers, five earned runs and seven hits+walks in just 2.2 innings. Of course, in between that, Morton shut down the Marlins, so he can still put it together at times. I just like the odds of a red-hot hitter putting some production together in at least five plate appearances. Chris Sale shut the Giants down last night, but generally speaking, the lineup has hit well lately. I expect them to turn it over tonight.
