MLB Picks: Championship Series Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Playoffs: MLB Championship Series Best Bets

Four teams remain in the quest for the Piece of Metal, and three of them made it here despite failing to win their respective divisions. The Rangers got here as the fifth seed in the American League but swept both the Rays and the Orioles to reach their first ALCS since 2011. The 84-win Diamondbacks are trying to become the second straight sixth seed to win the National League pennant, and they've also yet to lose a playoff game, sweeping both the Brewers and Dodgers. This is their first NLCS since 2007.

The other two teams are comparatively boring, as they're the two who made it to the World Series last season. The Phillies again made the playoffs as a wild card but this time got the number four seed, dispatching the Marlins in two games before completing the NL East corner of the bracket by beating Atlanta in four. This is merely their second consecutive Championship Series, however, which has nothing on the Astros' seven. The lone division-winner remaining, they got a bye in the first round — despite having the same record as the Rangers and Phillies — then beat the Twins in four games.

None of the teams with the five best regular-season records remain, but all of these teams are playing great baseball right now, which should give us a pair of great matchups. Read on for a breakdown of each series as well as my best bets.

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MLB Championship Series Odds

• Rangers +120 at Astros -140 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Diamondbacks +145 at Phillies -170 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Texas Rangers (90-72) at Houston Astros (90-72)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

LHP Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 4.23 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA, 4.43 SIERA)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 4.18 SIERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3.45 ERA, 3.70 SIERA)

RHP Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 3.77 SIERA) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (4.56 ERA, 4.76 SIERA)

RHP Dane Dunning (3.70 ERA, 4.52 SIERA) vs. RHP Jose Urquidy (5.29 ERA, 5.24 SIERA)

LHP Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 4.23 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA, 4.43 SIERA)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 4.18 SIERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3.45 ERA, 3.70 SIERA)

RHP Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 3.77 SIERA) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (4.56 ERA, 4.76 SIERA)

Series Preview

These two division rivals were part of a tight, three-way battle for the AL West crown alongside the Mariners. Texas and Houston ended up level on 90 wins, two games ahead of their northwest rival, with the Astros taking home the division crown (as well as a first-round bye) thanks to their 9-4 advantage in the season series, including a 7-1 record over the last eight games between the two representatives of the Lone Star State. Judging both their respective records and their rankings on the key stats table above, however, the Rangers will feel like this is a much more even matchup than the season stats indicate. 

Both lineups are strong and deep. Six Astros regulars finished the regular season with a wRC+ of at least 125, a group which doesn't include Jose Abreu, whose three homers in the Division Series suggest he's getting back to the form he showed over nine years with the White Sox. That power outburst doesn't even lead his team, however, as Yordan Alvarez hit four homers of his own in four games against the Twins. The Rangers only had two regulars clear the 125-wRC+ mark, but they had two more at 124 and a full 10 hitters who finished with a wRC+ of at least 98 in at least 300 plate appearances. There won't be anywhere to hide against either offense.

That places plenty of pressure on the two rotations, which already represented the biggest question marks on each side. You wouldn't know it from looking at the Rangers' fourth-place ranking in starter ERA- during the regular season, but it's unclear whether the staff that earned them that ranking will be the one Bruce Bochy has available to him in this series. Max Scherzer (shoulder) and Jon Gray (forearm) both missed the ALDS, but both could be back for this series, though there's of course no guarantee they go deep into the game or pitch up to their usual standards in their first starts back from injury. Houston's rotation, on the other hand, finished mid-tier during the regular season, with only Framber Valdez looking particularly reliable. Justin Verlander is 40 years old and his peripherals don't support his ERA, Cristian Javier took a massive step back this season, and promising rookie Hunter Brown ( ERA) has seemingly pitched his way out of the rotation.

If everything clicks for one rotation but not the other, that will probably decide the series, but if both are equally shaky, it could be the bullpens that play the decisive role. The Astros have the clear advantage in that area, even if the Rangers' pen did just post a 2.16 ERA in the Division Series. That unit did get deeper following the addition of Aroldis Chapman at the deadline, but that was only enough to drag the team up to 22nd in bullpen ERA- over the final two months of the regular season. Chapman and Jose Leclerc are the only Rangers relievers who finished the year with an ERA under 4.00 in at least 35 innings. Meanwhile, the Astros had five relievers in that category, giving Dusty Baker plenty of options to bridge the gap to Ryan Pressly.

Astros vs. Rangers Series Pick

•  Astros, -140 (DraftKings)

With two very strong lineups against two rotations that aren't particularly reliable, this figures to be a back-and-forth series, with either team capable of an 8-1 victory in any game. Anyone who argues that the teams are close enough in strength that you should just take the plus money and go with the Rangers isn't going to get much pushback from me. If the series were just five games but the odds remained the same, I might lean in that direction. Over a seven-game series, however, I expect the gulf between the team's respective bullpens to show itself. 

If both Scherzer and Gray are cleared for the series, that could tilt the balance just enough back in Texas' favor, but the thought of relying on two pitchers in their first start back from arm injuries without any chance of a proper rehab outing isn't an encouraging one. (News regarding their availability may also shift the odds between when this is written and when you're reading it. Find the updated best odds here.) Taking the Astros to win in six or fewer games (+145 at DraftKings) is an alternative way to side with Houston while getting a bigger potential payout, but I'd be unsurprised if it takes seven games to decide this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 3.67 SIERA) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.53 SIERA)

RHP Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (4.46 ERA, 3.75 SIERA)

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 4.28 SIERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (4.18 ERA, 4.38 SIERA)

RHP Ryne Nelson (5.31 ERA, 5.25 SIERA) vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (4.38 ERA, 4.97 SIERA) 

RHP Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 3.67 SIERA) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.53 SIERA)

RHP Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (4.46 ERA, 3.75 SIERA)

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 4.28 SIERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (4.18 ERA, 4.38 SIERA)

Series Preview

The Phillies cruised through the Wild Card round in two games behind strong pitching performances from Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, then cruised to a four-game NLDS win over a Braves team that finished 14 games ahead of them in the regular season, setting the stage for an NLCS matchup against another wild-card club, this one from the NL West. So far, the postseason has been an exact match of last year's for the Phillies, and they'll be feeling confident for one more series at least, as the script says they'll take this one in five games before losing to Houston in the World Series in six.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are in the playoffs for the first time in six years and are just two years removed from losing 110 games. They're a young team, ranking fifth in plate appearances by players age 25 or younger and eighth in innings pitched by pitchers in that category, and most experts likely would have expected Corbin Carroll and co. to reach this stage in 2025 or 2026, not 2023. Their regular-season record and their middling rankings on the Key Stats table above suggests they don't belong here just yet, but they certainly haven't looked like interlopers thus far in October, winning all five postseason games by a total score of 30-11.

One key matchup in this series will be the Diamondbacks' base-stealers against J.T. Realmuto. Arizona may have been only mid-tier at the plate, but they finished second in the league in steals, with Carroll leading the way with 54. They've stolen seven bases this postseason (only the Phillies have stolen more), but Realmuto has the fastest pop time in the league, which might slow them down. If they're stuck slugging their way to victory, they could be in trouble, as they finished 22nd in home runs. 

Contact is Arizona's game plan, as they rank fourth-best in strikeout rate (20.4 percent), but it's typically power that plays up in the playoffs. The league's best pitchers are hard to string long rallies against, but they still make the occasional mistake, so teams that can turn those mistakes into immediate runs are at an advantage. The Diamondbacks do have just as many homers as the Phillies (13) in one fewer game (five) this postseason and could easily stay hot for another weak, but if the Phillies who are more generally built for October.

Another key matchup will be the battle between the two bullpens, a battle which should come to a head in Games 3 and 4. Both teams will feel confident in their starters in Games 1 and 2, with Aaron Nola's two playoff gems settling the nerves after a shaky regular season, but it would hardly be a shock if no starter completes five innings across the next two contests. The Phillies should have the edge in that situation, as their deep bullpen (which just held an all-time great Atlanta lineup to two runs in 14.1 innings last season) boasts four pitchers who finished with an ERA below 3.30 in at least 40 innings, but the Diamondbacks' pen might be better than the table above makes it look. Paul Sewald (3.12 ERA, 34 saves between Arizona and Seattle) was a big addition at the deadline, and the team sits a far better eighth in bullpen ERA- since the start of August.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Series Pick

•  Phillies -1.5 games, +135 (BetMGM)

This was one of the toughest picks to make of the playoffs so far. It's hard not to take the Phillies when they so clearly outranked the Diamondbacks in both hitting and pitching during the regular season. Home-field advantage is an added benefit for a team that has gone 10-2 in front of the home crowd over the past two postseasons. But -170 is a steep price to pay in any postseason pairing, and there's a case to be made for taking Arizona at long odds simply because big underdogs are inherently interesting given the randomness of a seven-game sample. 

In the end, what pushed me towards this particular angle is that I like the matchups for the Phillies in Games 3 and 4 in particular. While I'd give them the edge in starting pitching, the majority of these games could be contested by the bullpens, where Philadelphia still has the advantage even over Arizona's upgraded unit. But what gives the Phillies even more of an advantage in those games is Arizona's notable weakness against lefties. That helps Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez if he gets the nod over Walker), but that's not all. Unbalanced lineups have a particular weakness to bullpen games, as the opponent can force them to use pinch hitters early in the game and then exploit potential pitcher-friendly matchups late. If the Phillies can win those two games in that fashion, they'll only have to go 2-2 in the Wheeler/Gallen and Nola/Kelly duels for this bet to hit.