MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 14)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little rash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Orlando Arcia (107 NFBC Drops, -4% at CBS)

Arcia had a nice couple of weeks, but his fantasy value is in a nose dive. On June 13, he took over as Atlanta's second baseman when Ozzie Albies went on the IL. Coming into the game, he was hitting .298 /.370/.447 with one homer. The good vibes continued as he posted a 1.382 OPS with two homers while gaining second-base eligibility (2B and OF) in his first week. The high-level production didn't last. 

Since June 19, he's hit .148/.235/.148 in 68 plate appearances. That's right -- no extra-base hits for almost a month. His .684 OPS this season is near his career .658 OPS.

Atlanta felt it needed an upgrade and went out and traded for Robinson Cano. Since the trade, Cano has been starting against righties and Arica against lefties.

There is no reason to roster a hitter on the short side of a platoon. Move on.  

Brandon Belt (83 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

As is the norm for him, Belt has had problems staying on the field (49 games). So far this season he's missed time with COVID-19, knee (x2) and neck issues. His managers knew they were signing up for this situation, but two other factors are keeping him from being fantasy worthy.

First, he's hit horribly compared to the past couple of seasons (1.015 OPS in 2020, .975 OPS last season). This year, it's now it's a fine .770 -- that won't cut it for a first baseman on a playoff contending team. 

Second, he's on the strong side of a platoon with Austin Wynns (.586 OPS). Belt is hitting so bad against lefties (.608 OPS) that the backup catcher steals at-bats from him. So far this season, Belt has a .809 OPS against righties and a .608 versus lefties, so the platoon is acceptable. 

The key with Belt is to stream him when he's facing a ton of righties and then move on if a few lefties are scheduled. 

Lane Thomas (83 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

Thomas has been on and off rosters this season. When he hit .281/.347.517 with five homers in June, everyone bought back in. There were signs of improvement, with his monthly strikeout rate dropping (34% K% to 24% to 19%) and his walk rate improving (6% BB% to 8% to 9%). All those gains have disappeared in July and he's just hitting .225/.244/.325.

When Thomas started struggling, he moved into a two-thirds role, mainly starting against lefties. So far this season, he has a .640 OPS against righties and a .743 OPS against lefties. 

Probably the biggest issue with Thomas is the single steal he has so far this season. In 45 games with Washington last season, he stole four bases and there was hope he would continue. That has not been the case. 

For fantasy purposes, there is no reason to consider rostering Thomas unless it's an NL-only league.

Bryson Stott (70 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

I forgot Stott existed and I didn't understand why he was so highly rostered. He has been fine in Triple-A (.833 OPS in 2021, .986 OPS in 2022) but has struggled in 211 MLB plate appearances (.187/.256/.301, six homers, three steals) . 

Somehow, the Phillies have bought into Stott, giving him 16 straight starts while hitting him as high as fifth. He's not on a hot streak (.623 OPS in July), so he's not forcing the team's hand. 

Part of his demand might be from being one of the Phillies' top prospects. The results haven't lived up to the hype. Part of his struggles stem from having a flyball swing (17 deg avgLA) but limited power (108 mph maxEV, 34% HardHit%).

I could see Stott take a step forward if he either lowered his launch angle and became more of a line-drive hitter, or got powerful enough to hit more home runs. He's toeing the middle ground too much right now.

Starters

Andre Pallante (75 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

Pallante has a unique but effective profile. The 23-year-old righty is a groundball generating machine. Of the 144 pitchers who have thrown 50 innings this season, his 63% GB% ranks second behind just Framber Valdez's 67% mark. The high groundball rate helps limit home runs (1.0 HR/9) and makes it so base runners have to go station to station in order to score. 

While the groundball rate is elite, he struggles with strikeouts and walks. His 5.8 K/9 ranked 136th among the same 50-IP group. Usually, a low strikeout rate is offset by a low walk rate, but not with Pallante. His 3.2 BB/9 is 32nd highest. He relies on the defense behind him to be productive. 

Because groundballs go for more hits than flyballs, he runs a high BABIP (.307) that when combined with his walk rate, leads to a 1.43 WHIP. 

Overall, I see him as a waiver wire streamer against weak teams going for the win. 

Patrick Corbin (61 NFBC Drops)

Until 2019, Corbin was a top-30 starter, but he lost some velocity in 2020 and has struggled since then. Those struggles have continued into this season, but in mid-May, he started adding velocity and the results improved.

Month: xFIP, ERA

• April: 4.72, 8.69
• May: 4.03, 5.97
• June: 3.81, 4.28
• July: 4.17, 3.46

Besides the added velocity, he's moved away from his four-seam fastball (5% SwStr%, 41%) and is throwing a sinker (5% SwStr%, 48% GB%).

While Corbin has changed for the better, I don't think it's enough. Monitor for continued improvement and stream at your own risk.

Zack Greinke (52 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

Besides sentimental reasons, there are no reasons to roster Greinke. His 4.8 K/9 is nearly the league's lowest right behind Marco Gonzales (min. 50 innings). While a 1.7 BB/9 helps, he just allows too many balls in play and has a 4.52 ERA (4.68 xFIP) and 1.28 WHIP. 

While he's been at his sub-90 mph velocity for a few seasons, his secondary pitches just aren't getting good results. His slider (12% SwStr%) is the only one with a double-digit swinging-strike rate. His changeup (71% GB%) is the only pitch with a groundball rate over 50%, and he only throws it 16% of the time. 

While he does go long into starts, he's only got three wins on the season. Barely a streaming option, even when he gets two starts. 

Reliever

Giovanny Gallegos (73 NFBC Drops, -7% at CBS)

The Cardinals appear to be using Ryan Helsley as the primary closer and not Gallegos. Since Gallegos recorded a save May 20, he has only had two saves (and four blown saves). On the other hand, Helsley has six saves compared to two blown saves in that time span. In shallow leagues where not every committee closer is rostered, he's a fine drop. So what went wrong? Two things.

First, Gallegos is giving up more home runs. His groundball rate has dropped from 42% to 33% to 24%, and his home run rate is up to 1.3 HR/9. Even with the home runs, he's been acceptable (3.86 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 11.3 K/9).  

The second problem for Gallegos is that Helsley has been otherworldly (0.71 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 0.68 WHIP, 13.3 K/9). Helsley is closing more because he's better.

In some leagues, pitchers with a one-third closer role are useful. In others, they are waiver-wire fodder.