This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB NLCS Game 3 Picks and Props for Wednesday, October 16
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2024 Postseason Betting Record: 3-1 (+1.82 RW Bucks)
2024 Postseason Props Betting Record: 1-3 (-2.09 RW Bucks)
After a split of the first two games of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) out west, the Dodgers and Mets renew acquaintances at Citi Field in Game 3 Wednesday night. Two big-name pitchers in Walker Buehler and Luis Severino are on the hill for Los Angeles and New York, respectively. Each is hittable despite their talent, especially by lineups of the caliber they'll face.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The first two games of the series have been studies in contrast. The Dodgers ran roughshod in Game 1 to the tune of a 9-0 win, but the Mets impressively rebounded in Game 2 with a 7-3 victory powered by a Mark Vientos grand slam and a strong collective pitching effort by Sean Manaea and three relievers.
The way matters have played out so far has been fitting for what was prognosticated to be a relatively competitive series, partly due to the Dodgers' injury-hampered starting rotation. Wednesday's starter, Buehler, has been a stalwart in the past, having forged a 45-16 record, 2.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 107 appearances (106 starts) from 2018-23. However, matters have largely gone off the rails for the veteran right-hander this season.
Buehler dealt with hip issues that cost him nearly two months this summer and finished the regular season with a 1-6 record, 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, along with a 1.9 HR/9 that was his highest since his 2017 rookie campaign. Buehler's 5.54 FIP, along with his 8.0 percent swinging strike rate and 18.8 percent strikeout rates – both career lows – further underscore that something hasn't been quite right.
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On the other side, Severino's 2024 story has been much different. The veteran righty has enjoyed quite the comeback season on the other side of the Big Apple after years of potential and injury-laden years with the Yankees. Severino put together his best campaign since 2018, finishing 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and averaging 96.0 miles per hour on his fastball, corroborating he still has plenty left in the tank. He may have been wearing down a bit at the end of the regular season after logging the third-most innings of his career (182.0), however, as he posted a 5.63 ERA and 2.3 HR/9 across the 16 innings covering his last three starts.
Severino has been solid through his first two postseason starts with a 1-0 record and 4.50 ERA, but he's pitched to contact by allowing 14 hits over 12 innings. This Dodgers lineup could spell some trouble as well, considering Severino allowed a .269 average, .338 wOBA and 1.6 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. As such, I'm in on a couple of props for Shohei Ohtani, who owns a .500 average with a double and a home run against Severino in eight career encounters.
At the same time, Pete Alonso is one of several Mets bats that could give the shaky Buehler plenty of trouble. The prodigious slugger boasts a .357 average against Buehler in 14 career plate appearances, a sample that includes four home runs and only a single strikeout. As such, a combo bet on either Ohtani or Alonso going deep at plus-money is one I think is very worthy of consideration as well.
Finally, given both offenses have already proven capable of heating up early in this series, I also like the prospect of the first half of this game featuring at least a few runs for either side as reflected in my two game bets.
MLB Picks for Dodgers vs. Mets
- Over 4.5 Runs - F5 (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Both teams to Score 2+ runs - F5 (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Shohei Ohtani and Pete Alonso - Either Player to Hit a Home Run (+150 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+125 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
