MLB FAAB Factor: Final Changes

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

We're nearly there. For big-league clubs, just three more series left to play. For waiver recommendations, just this one final MLB FAAB Factor, then the AL FAAB Factor and NL FAAB Factor over the weekend, and then that's it. For your fantasy teams, you're either playing out the string with your place in the standings long since determined, or you're scrambling through one final set of changes before the most important week of the year. 

For pickups this time of year, pay particular attention to recent usage and the remaining schedule. You might be able to unearth an unheralded late-season call-up who's recently moved into a starting role for a noncontender, or perhaps you'll find that a platoon player will effectively be an everyday player for the rest of the year with no lefties on the schedule. The minutiae become far less minute time of year, when each game represents more than 10 percent of a team's remaining schedule.

Starting Pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (34%)

For the season, Rodriguez's numbers remain poor. A shoulder injury prevented him from making his season debut until August, and he's struggled to a 5.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over eight starts since his return. His last two starts suggest a different narrative, however, as he's struck out 38.3 percent of opposing batters en route to a 3.18 ERA. Compare that with his 13.5 percent strikeout rate and 5.83 ERA over his first six outings and it looks like he simply needed a bit more time to get his groove back after a long injury layoff. He gets a pair of home starts against divisional rivals (San Francisco and San Diego) to end the year. FAAB: $3 

Reese Olson, Tigers (23%)

Olson cruised to a 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in the first half before straining his shoulder in his first start after the break. An absence of nearly two months followed, and he didn't look good in his first start back, allowing four runs in 2.1 innings against the Royals while throwing just 50 pitches. That leaves me unlikely to risk him this Saturday against the Orioles, but I've included him as a pickup nonetheless, as I'd love to use him in the final week of the season against the White Sox, assuming he looks viable enough against Baltimore and extends his pitch count. FAAB: $2

Tylor Megill, Mets (16%)

Megill has flashed promise at multiple points in his career, with his underlying numbers over his first two seasons leading to a 3.72 xFIP despite a 4.73 ERA, but his career numbers remain unimpressive (4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). He's in another one of his good stretches at the moment, producing a 1.69 ERA and 22:6 K:BB over his last four starts. While his past inconsistency makes believing too strongly in his recent run seem unwise, anyone adding him now is merely looking for him to continue his recent run for two more outings, not to continue pitching like this for an entire season. FAAB: $1

Joey Cantillo, Guardians (18%)

Cantillo is an example of a fairly common type of pitching prospect, one whose great stuff putting him on the map in the lower minors but whose command and durability concerns took much of the shine off his star by the time he reached the majors, making a move to the bullpen a distinct possibility. Through his first eight big-league appearances, the jury is still out, as he's combined a good strikeout rate (25.9 percent) with a slightly elevated walk rate (9.1 percent), leading to a 4.63 ERA. There's enough here to make him worth a chance in a home start against the Reds next week, and even if that outing isn't of interest, he's a name to know for next year. FAAB: $1

Relief Pitcher

Tyler Holton, Tigers (36%)

Jason Foley claimed the Tigers' closer job early in the season, though perhaps it's more accurate to say he only ever claimed the top job in a committee. His 25 saves rank 13th in the league but represent just 61 percent of the team's total of 41. Holton has emerged as the top lefty in the Detroit pen, and that role tends to come with a solid handful of saves on teams that use a committee, as Holton's eight saves this season attest. Four of those saves — as well as a pair of wins — have come in the last month, a stretch in which Holton has allowed just one run. Holton's 21.0 percent strikeout rate would look out of place as a true closer, but he's shown excellent control (4.5 percent walk rate), helping him to a 2.12 ERA and 0.79 WHIP across 89 innings. He's unlikely to give you more than one or maybe two saves the rest of the way, and he might not even give you any, but he should at minimum give you a handful of quality innings. FAAB: $1

Catcher

Hunter Goodman, Rockies (14%)

The Rockies are at home for the entire final week of the season, which makes nearly all of their regulars worth a look in nearly all formats. It wasn't clear that Goodman would play often enough (or well enough) to fit into that category, but a recent surge means he very much qualifies. Goodman is hitting a lopsided (and poor) .193/.233/.431 on the season, but he's hitting .256/.293/.667 with five homers in 12 games in the month of September, moving into the starting catcher role while also featuring occasionally elsewhere. Goodman strikes out too much (28.1 percent) and doesn't walk (3.8 percent), but his 13.6 percent barrel rate means he has real power. It's an imperfect profile, even at catcher, where the offensive bar is lower, but it's enough to make him worth a pickup in weeks where he never has to leave Coors Field. FAAB: $2

First Baseman

Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (40%)

Very little has gone right this year for the Blue Jays, who sit last in the division despite entering the year expecting to contend, but they can at least count Horwitz's breakout as a legitimate win. A 26-year-old rookie with a good hit tool but questions about everything else, Horwitz has gone on to hit .272/.361/.459 with 12 homers in 88 games, showing enough bat to look like much more than a Quad-A player. Dig a bit deeper, though, and it's not clear he's established himself as an everyday player but rather as someone who belongs on the large side of a platoon. He owns an .898 OPS against right-handers but a .533 OPS against southpaws, with all 12 of his homers coming with the platoon advantage. That's something to keep in mind for next season, but it's not very relevant the rest of the way this year, as the Jays are projected to face righties in each of their final eight games. FAAB: $3

Second Baseman

Zack Gelof, Athletics (40%)

If you drafted Gelof, you probably regret it. His 17 homers and 23 steals have kept his fantasy value from bottoming out, but he's hitting just .216/.277/.377 on the year, a big drop from his .267/.337/.504 showing as a rookie. If you picked up Gelof in early August after the team that drafted him finally gave up on him, however, you likely have a different perspective. In his last 40 games, he's slashed .276/.327/.434, adding four homers and 10 steals. He's still just 24 years old, so there's reason to believe the version of Gelof we've seen these past six-plus weeks and the version we saw last season are just as real as the version we saw struggle for the bulk of this year. FAAB: $2

Third Baseman

Justin Turner, Mariners (43%)

Turner just keeps going. While there's nothing special about his .257/.353/.387 slash line, it marks the 11th consecutive season in which he's posted a wRC+ above 110 — not bad for a player who'd topped out at a 99 wRC+ through the end of his age-28 season. The 39-year-old no longer has much power, hitting 11 homers on the year and posting a 4.6 percent barrel rate, but he's a steady option to round out the end of your lineup and gets a boost in the final week from the fact that the Mariners are scheduled to face four lefties. FAAB: $1

Shortstop

Luisangel Acuna, Mets (18%)

Luisangel may not possess the same upside as brother Ronald, in part due to his small, 5-foot-8 frame, but the 22-year-old shortstop is getting the chance to show what he can do in the absence of Francisco Lindor (back). Lindor has avoided the injured list but remains day-to-day, and Acuna has made the most of his opportunity, with two home runs and a trio of multi-hit games through his first four big-league starts. It should be noted that Acuna struggled at the plate in the minors, slashing .258/.299/.355 in 131 games for Triple-A Syracuse, but he did manage 40 steals. If he continues to earn starts once Lindor returns, likely in place of Jose Iglesias at second base, he's more likely to help out on the base paths than anywhere else. FAAB: $1

Outfielder

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (25%)

Walker's season has gone poorly enough that it's worth reassessing just how optimistic we should be for his long-term future. He spent over half the season with Triple-A Memphis, where he managed a sub-par 95 wRC+ in 84 games, and he owns an even worse 70 wRC+ in 41 games at the big-league level, the product of a .192/.254/.360 slash line. He does own an .897 OPS in the month of September, but that drops all the way to .704 if you leave out his five-hit day back on the first day of the month. (He has zero multi-hit games since then.) The only reason he earns a recommendation this week is that the Cardinals travel to Coors Field in the final week of the season and are scheduled to face a pair of lefties. Walker may have dropped into the tier of players who are only interesting when everything lines up perfectly, but don't leave him on the wire when that happens. FAAB: $2 

Nathan Lukes, Blue Jays (1%)

We'll close the column for the year with a very late-September sort of recommendation. Lukes is a 30-year-old whose only big-league experience prior to this season was an unsuccessful cameo last year, when he hit .192/.290/.308 in 29 games. He's received another chance down the stretch in a lost season for the Blue Jays, and he's made the most of it, hitting .356/.423/.511 in 12 games while walking more than he's struck out. He's sitting against lefties but starting against righties, often hitting first or second. With the Blue Jays set to face all right-handers in the final week, Lukes should play enough to help your team. FAAB: $1