MLB FAAB Factor: Fantastic Finishes

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

Rafael Furcal, that notorious slow starter, occasionally uttered during interviews, "It's not how you start, it's how you finish." So true. Coming out of the All-Star break, fantasy managers are looking for players to shake off rough starts and turn them into hot finishes and potentially titles. Like Julio Rodriguez last year.

Rodriguez, that ballyhooed wunderkind for the Mariners, was hitting an anemic .238 when the books closed on June 2023. Then he had five multi-hit games going into the break, and picked up with another two hits in the first game post break. He never stopped hitting, all told batting .308 with a .941 OPS in 68 games. He smacked 19 home runs, stole 15 bases, scored 50 runs and drove in 54. Those finishes make seasons. Let's see if there are other players who come close to replicating Rodriguez's performance.

On a personal note, this is going to be my last MLB FAAB Factor of this season, as I'll be moving on to another opportunity in the near future. Stay tuned to my Twitter account @jorgemartin17 for updates. It's been wonderful to pick up this column from my friends at RotoWire, and it's been so enjoyable to have the interaction in the comments and I hope I've helped you with your fantasy teams. Back to the season, I wish you all buena suerte on your own pennant stretches, and if you want to tweet at me fantasy baseball questions, I'll do my best to answer them as quickly as possible. And with that, let's get ready for the second half of the season!

Starting Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (58%)
The future Hall of Famer pitched three shutout innings without allowing a hit – walking one – while throwing just 38 pitches in a Triple-A game on July 13. He ended up throwing an additional dozen offerings in the bullpen to get to an even 50, so Kershaw appears to be back in the right direction after getting a scare recently that shut him down for a week.

The Dodgers could use Kershaw in the rotation, with Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler all on the IL, and Bobby Miller getting sent to the minors. The last two years, even pitching with diminished velocity, Kershaw had sub-2.50 ERAs each season. Even two months of Kershaw would be a great boost for fantasy teams if he were to be activated in late July/early August. FAAB: $12

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (29%)
With nine minor-league outings to serve as his extended spring training in his return from May 2023 Tommy John surgery, Ray is getting close to taking the mound for the Giants. He struck out nine batters and allowed one hit and one walk apiece in throwing five shutout innings in a rehab outing against Single-A competition.

With Blake Snell appearing to make progress toward a return to form and Logan Webb pitching like an All-Star in the first half of the season, Ray could make it a top-tier top-three in the rotation if he can get anywhere near the pitcher who struck out 212 batters in 189.1 innings in 2022. FAAB: $11

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves (24%)
The righty fired off back-to-back wins in his final two starts before the All-Star break, giving up a pair of runs over 13 innings. That helped him to a 4.46 ERA and a solid 41 strikeouts in 44.2 innings across his first eight starts of his major-league career. 

Schwellenbach has two numbers that are very much in his favor. He has a chase percentage at 35.1 that's in the 96th percentile, while his barrel rate is just three percent. That's good for the 97th percentile. The No. 3 prospect in the Braves system doesn't look to be going back to the minors anytime soon. FAAB: $9

Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers (49%)
Don't let the 4-8 record fool you, Olson has pitched well of late. In his last five starts, Olson is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. He's punched out 31 batters in 30 innings, walking just six.

The second-year starter may have a stress-free back half of the campaign, as the Tigers are three games under .500 and may be sellers at the trade deadline. That would just leave Olson to further establish himself in the big leagues by taking a regular turn in the rotation and building upon his late success. The one caveat may be if his innings are capped, though that may not be until sometime in September. FAAB: $8

Relief Pitcher

Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers (68%)

After missing the entire season thus far with two stress fractures in his back, Williams is nearing a return to the big leagues. He pitched his first rehab game on July 14, striking out the side in order. Relievers don't often need long buildups to get back to pitching in one-inning bursts. 

Williams saved 36 games last year, establishing himself as one of the top closers in baseball. Be ready to spend some FAAB dollars to get a fireman who struck out 87 batters in 58 innings last year. FAAB: $15

Catcher

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds (25%)
In a six-game run before heading to the break, Stephenson went 9-for-25 (.360) with four home runs, eight RBI and seven runs scored. While that damage was done against bottom-dwelling pitching staffs from the Rockies and Marlins, the Reds come out of the break traveling to D.C. to take on the Nationals. Let's see if the respite cooled off his hot bat. FAAB: $3

First Base

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies (14%)

With a three-homer game on July 14, Toglia could have been forgiven for asking to continue playing so that he could keep riding his hot run. In the final six games before the Midsummer Classic, Toglia hit six home runs and drove in eight runs. Coincidentally, the six homers accounted for all the hits Toglia registered in that run. 

Toglia has been up and down between the big leagues and the minors since 2022, failing to hit more than .216 during any season. His Mendoza-like .197 average is not giving any signs of hope for the future, but the Rockies need to find out if Toglia can be anything more than a boom-bust for them. FAAB: $5

Second Base

Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics (46%)
Hitting .196 as late as June 25, Gelof hardly looked like the dark horse candidate to go 30-30 after he went 14-14 in 69 games last season. An oblique strain cost him about three weeks of time from April 24 to May 14, and he has not found a consistent rhythm at the plate. 

He has, though, hit three home runs in his last six games, and seven in 23 games for a larger sample size. Gelof even has a pair of four-RBI games in the last week before the break. Gelof had an .840 OPS last year, so there's room for growth from the .648 mark thus far. He's a solid bet to bounce back in the second half. FAAB: $7

Third Base

Matt Vierling, Detroit Tigers (21%)

Vierling has appeared in this space before, and warrants inclusion again with a .292 average and an .875 OPS in the final six games before the break. He's up to 12 home runs and 41 RBI on the season, and is on pace to hit about 20 round-trippers in 2024. FAAB: $4

Ernie Clement, Toronto Blue Jays (4%)
This is a deep cut, though Clement has been hot of late with regular playing time. Since a June 29 start, Clement has been in the starting lineup 13 of 14 games, and in the last seven games he's hitting .370 with a 1.046 OPS, adding in two home runs and nine RBI. 

He hasn't hit higher than sixth in the lineup, though that production in the small sample size might be worth a flier. Clement is another player who can be moved around to different positions. FAAB: $3

Shortstop

Xavier Edwards, Miami Marlins (6%)

Edwards has hits in seven of his last eight games, and in six of those contests he banged out multiple hits. He hit .448, going 13-for-29 with three steals and four runs scored in that heater. 

At 24, Edwards may be establishing himself as the Marlins' shortstop. He has a good batting eye – seven walks against 10 strikeouts in 61 plate appearances – and the speed to move toward the top of the lineup. FAAB: $10

Max Schuemann, Oakland Athletics (15%)
In a dozen games before the break, Schuemann hit .351 with a .980 OPS, hitting two homers, stealing four bases and scoring 10 times. He struck out just 10 times against seven walks during that stretch.

Schuemann batted ninth for the A's in every start since June 25, though he did slot into the leadoff spot in the lineup a few times before that. His three-position eligibility makes him extra valuable for fantasy teams. FAAB: $4

Outfield

Lawrence Butler, Oakland Athletics (18%)
After appearing in this column a week ago, Butler was even better and warrants more pickups. He hit three home runs and drove in six runs to go into the All-Star break on an exclamation point. 

The .211 average is probably the reason some fantasy managers are passing him by, though those nine home runs and six steals have to make him attractive to many. FAAB: $5

Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers (14%)
In his most recent five games, Frelick is hitting a whopping .450 (9-for-20) with a 1.200 OPS. With an overall .275 average, a .349 OBP and 14 stolen bases, Frelick could help as a final outfielder who subs in for others with days off. 

He's slotting in usually in the fifth spot in the lineup, making him a candidate to increase his RBI total from the 20 in 87 games thus far. FAAB: $5

Mickey Moniak, Los Angeles Angels (1%)
Another deep cut, Moniak is hitting .280 with a .462 slugging percentage and scored seven times in 10 July games. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick in the MLB has hit mostly in the seventh spot in the lineup, though he did move up a spot to sixth in the last game before the break. FAAB: $3