MLB FAAB Factor: Setting Up For the Stretch Run

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

The most consequential FAAB period of the season is probably the initial weekend, when we finally get to replace speculation about who will win roster spots and starting jobs with actual information from actual regular season games. The next most consequential period may well be the one we're in right now. 

The trade deadline is less than a week away, and if you're able to get ahead of your leaguemates by correctly predicting the players who are set to benefit, you could pick up a key piece for the final two months of the season at a bargain price. This week's MLB FAAB Factor will sprinkle in a handful of names who fit that category, as well as the usual mix of players who have stepped into new roles recently or who have shown a new level at the plate or on the mound in recent weeks.

Starting Pitcher

Drew Thorpe, White Sox (32%)

Thorpe is a difficult pitcher to evaluate. He was fairly well-liked as a prospect despite a poor fastball, a pitch that has averaged just 91.1 mph through his first seven major-league starts. He's really struggled to strike batters out so far, posting a 15.4 percent strikeout rate, and his 10.9 percent walk rate doesn't look good either. That walk rate falls to 6.7 percent if you zoom in on just his last four starts, however, a stretch in which he's allowed just five runs on 11 hits in 24.1 innings. The lack of whiffs caps his fantasy ceiling, and pitching for the White Sox hurts his shot at wins, but he's a talented young pitcher who's starting to figure it out at the big-league level. FAAB: $6

Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays (19%)

Rodriguez signed a four-year, $24.4 million contract with Toronto prior to the season, but he didn't play a significant role over the first three months of the campaign, throwing just 17.2 major-league innings while spending most of his time on the injured list or in the minors. Perhaps a slow start was expected given that he didn't pitch anywhere last year while going through the process of defecting from Cuba. With the Blue Jays set to sell amidst a very disappointing campaign, Rodriguez should have free reign to make as many starts as he can handle down the stretch. With a 1.66 ERA and 24:7 K:BB in 21.2 innings over his last four starts, he looks like a potential difference-maker once he gets fully up to speed. FAAB: $6

Luis Ortiz, Pirates (32%)

Ortiz has past pedigree as a top-100 prospect and is still just 25 years old. That's the sort of player you want to take a chance on after some small-sample success, even if his big-league performances to date prior to his recent run leave plenty to be desired. In 102.2 innings prior to this year, he struggled to a 4.73 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, striking out just 16.2 percent of opposing batters while walking 12.4 percent. That left him stuck in the bullpen at the start of this year, but his strong numbers have earned him a move back to the rotation, where he owns a 0.73 ERA and 19:3 K:BB through four starts. He's making a case to stick around even after Jared Jones (lat) and Bailey Falter (triceps) get healthy. FAAB: $4

Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks (18%)

Nelson was never an elite prospect, but he wasn't a non-prospect either, peaking just outside the top-100 at RotoWire and landing in a similar place on other lists. That made his 5.31 ERA (and matching 5.30 xFIP) as a rookie last year quite a disappointment. His 4.78 ERA this season doesn't look a whole lot better, but that's primarily the result of a difficult start to the campaign. In his first 11 outings, he struggled to a 5.96 ERA and 1.69 WHIP while striking out just 14.0 percent of opposing batters. Over his last seven outings, his strikeout rate has jumped to 21.3 percent, while his ERA and WHIP have dropped to 3.29 and 1.00, respectively. It's worth a look to see if this new level is sustainable. FAAB: $3

Relief Pitcher

Daniel Hudson, Dodgers (50%)

Evan Phillips's ERA over the last two seasons came in at an elite 1.59, but the Dodgers never seemed particularly committed to using him as a traditional closer. His ERA this season has jumped to 3.73 following a recent slump, which has seen the team turn to Hudson as the primary option in the ninth inning. He recorded all four of the team's saves between July 12 and July 22, though his usage on back-to-back days meant that Phillips returned to the ninth for a save this Tuesday. Even with a stellar 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP this season, Hudson will likely remain more of a committee leader than a true closer, and the deadline could wind up bumping him from his perch if the Dodgers bring in outside help. But for now, he's a good short-term option for save chances. FAAB: $6

Ben Joyce, Angels (7%)

This is the last possible week to speculate on the "next man up" behind the closers most likely to be traded at the deadline. If you're chasing a player in that category, Joyce should be near the top of your list. The young fireballer made waves after hitting 105.5 mph with his fastball while at the University of Tennessee, but he took some time to find his footing in the majors. Over his first 15 career appearances, he recorded an 11:10 K:BB and gave up 11 runs in 12 innings of work. Since then, however, he's made 13 straight scoreless appearances, posting a 15:8 K:BB in 15.1 frames while allowing just six hits. When Carlos Estevez gets dealt at the deadline, as he almost certainly will, Joyce should be well-positioned to take over the ninth inning. FAAB: $5

Catcher

Austin Wells, Yankees (5%)

Wells was at least a moderately interesting option for two-catcher leagues back in draft season, but his .204/.292/.306 slash line with one home run over the first two months eliminated any lingering excitement. He did show good plate discipline (16.8 percent strikeout rate, 11.5 percent walk rate) over that stretch, but he simply didn't do much damage when he put the ball into play. That's changed since the start of June, a stretch in which he's hit .250/.385/.488 with six homers. He's actually striking out far more often, but his 22.9 percent strikeout rate over that stretch is still a perfectly fine mark, and the Yankees will gladly accept a few more whiffs if it comes with louder contact. FAAB: $2

First Base

Juan Yepez, Nationals (28%)

Yepez hit a perfectly respectable .253/.296/.447 (good for a 107 wRC+) in 76 games as a rookie for the Cardinals in 2022, but he slipped to a 51 wRC+ in just 28 games last year and wound up getting non-tendered over the winter. He landed with the Nationals on a minor-league deal and was stuck at Triple-A until early July, but his performances since his call-up suggest he probably should have arrived a lot sooner. In 14 games, he's hit .377/.441/.585 with one homer, striking out just 16.9 percent of the time while posting an 11.6 percent barrel rate. That's been enough to earn him an everyday role in the heart of the order. FAAB: $3

Coby Mayo, Orioles (0%)

Mayo is one of the top prospects in baseball — ranking seventh in our fantasy-focused rankings — and already has 130 Triple-A games under his belt. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, as his 284/.384/.556 slash line and 31 homers at Triple-A Norfolk indicate, and in any other organization, he probably would have made his MLB debut multiple months ago. He's been blocked by the Orioles' impressive infield depth, but that's unlikely to be the case for long, either because Baltimore will deal him at the deadline or because they'll deal someone ahead of him. FAAB: $2

Second Base

Edouard Julien, Twins (19%)

Julien hit .263/.381/.459 (good for a 136 wRC+) as a rookie, homering 16 times in 109 games. Rather than build on that success in his second season, however, he struggled to a .207/.309/.367 line (97 wRC+) in his first 58 games and was demoted in early June. He returned to the majors Saturday and has been serving on the large side of a platoon at second base. He's an incomplete player, with significant issues against lefties (against whom he has a career 48 wRC+) and troubles making contact (career 32.5 percent strikeout rate). But he also has rare power for a middle infielder (career 14.8 percent barrel rate), and his ability to take a walk gives him an additional boost in OBP leagues. FAAB: $3

Brooks Baldwin, White Sox (1%)

A roster as barren as the White Sox's is bound to provide opportunities for hidden fantasy gems to emerge down the stretch, as the competition for playing time is so light. Whether Baldwin can do enough with his opportunities to become one such gem remains to be seen, but it seems quite clear that he'll get his chance. He's started every game since his call-up, and all he needs to do to continue earning starts at the keystone is to beat out Nicky Lopez and his career .624 OPS. He's off to a poor start in that regard, slashing .100/.100/.100 through six games, but his .324/.391/.460 line across the two highest levels of the minors prior to his debut provides reason for optimism. FAAB: $2

Third Base

Joey Ortiz, Brewers (22%)

Ortiz didn't initially have an everyday role with the Brewers this season after being acquired from Baltimore in the Corbin Burnes trade, but a strong start to the season made him a regular for most of May and June. A trip to the injured list with neck inflammation in early July led to some drops, but he's been back since just before the break and is playing every day again. His 4-for-26 slump since his return is no more than a minor worry, as it's only brought his season slash line down to .256/.358/.417 (121 wRC+). His excellent plate discipline (16.8 percent strikeout rate, 13.3 percent walk rate) makes it easier to buy into his continued success and calls for more widespread rostership, even if his seven homers and six steals in 286 plate appearances are somewhat underwhelming. FAAB: $6

Short Stop

Tyler Fitzgerald, Giants (35%)

Fitzgerald earned an Opening Day roster spot with the Giants but spent much of the first half either on the bench or in the minors, receiving just 86 MLB plate appearances before the break. That usage seemed fitting for a player who was never much of a prospect but whose ability to handle both shortstop and center field seemed to herald a long career as a utility man. That's still the most likely long-term outcome for Fitzgerald, but it's hard to ignore what he's done recently. Fed up with both Nick Ahmed (.581 OPS) and Brett Wisely (.697 OPS) at shortstop, the Giants have turned to Fitzgerald for five straight starts, and he's homered in four of them. That's a surefire way to keep getting opportunities. While he won't sustain anything like this current hot streak, the lack of competition means he may continue to get playing time even after he cools off. FAAB: $3

Outfield 

Angel Martinez, Guardians (10%)

Playing time is king in fantasy sports, and Martinez has all he could ask for right now. He was called up on July 4 and inserted into the starting lineup for just his third career MLB appearance, and he's started every game since then. He's primarily played center field but has also started at second base, third base, left field, right field and designated hitter. That versatility could make Martinez the next man up all around the diamond should he cool off, but for now, his performances deserve everyday opportunities. Through 19 games, he's slashing .261/.350/.420, striking out just 14.8 percent of the time to go along with a 12.3 percent walk rate. He doesn't hit the ball very hard (32.2 percent hard-hit rate, 3.4 percent barrel rate), but his on-base skills look real and have earned him a spot as the everyday No. 2 hitter. FAAB: $4

Victor Robles, Mariners (9%)

Robles has name value, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here. He's still a lifetime .240/.315/.361 hitter across parts of eight seasons, and his slash line since the start of the 2020 season sits at .229/.308/.319. The Nationals finally gave up on him, designating him for assignment in late May, but he's since landed with Seattle and has recently moved into a starting role in the absences of Dominic Canzone (groin) and Julio Rodriguez (ankle). In 57 plate appearances for his new team, Robles is hitting .375/.455/.542, homering once and stealing an impressive seven bases. If he can keep putting the ball in play regularly, he'll continue to earn playing time chasing balls down in the Mariners' outfield, offering him opportunities to keep running. FAAB: $2