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MLB Best Bets Today: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
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In a little-known codicil to the MLB charter, ESPN will get double-secret probation unless they always pick Yankees-Red Sox games for Sunday Night Baseball.
On June 12th, the Yankees stood at an MLB-best 49-21 with a league-leading 2.93 ERA and 1.13 WHIP that ranked fourth. They have since gone 12-24 mostly thanks to pitching that has utterly imploded to a 5.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP defenestration. The bats have dipped a bit, but remain relatively strong, from a .256/.334/.440 slash line and 121 wRC ahead of the team slump to .237/.329/.418 and 114 wRC+ since then. But as Luis Severino recently pointed out, the Yankees only have two good hitters.
Aaron Judge sits as an overwhelming -350 American League MVP favorite on account of staying healthy and mashing to a near triple crown with a .314 batting average, 36 homers and 95 RBI. Bringing in Juan Soto to get on base over and over again ahead of Judge and take advantage of the short porch in right-center in Yankee Stadium has worked to near perfection as he's gone .309/.433/.598 with 27 homers.
The problem of course is that no one else has provided any consistent offense. Alex Verdugo looked good in the four-hole early and hit a homer vs. the Red Sox on June 14h. He took great pride showing up the team that ditched him. He has a .232 on-base percentage (OBP) and 37 wRC+ since then. Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and Ben Rice have all had turns batting around Soto and Judge in the order – all have flopped to varying degrees. Rice at least takes his walks, but has batted just .192 overall. Keep in mind that three of his six home runs came in one game. Catcher Austin Wells has gotten hot lately with six homers and a .462 wOBA since June 29th. He now typically bats in the four-hole. Enter Jazz Chisholm, almost certainly to the leadoff spot against righties, presumably as early as tonight.
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Carlos Rodon takes the ball tonight and the big money free agent signing has recovered from a simply hideous first year in the Bronx to a downright mediocre second season. His 4.42 ERA excites no one, though his 3.82 SIERA suggests he has pitched a tad better than that. On the other hand, his strikeout rate has dropped from 33.4 percent in 2022 in San Francisco to 25.2 percent this season. Tough to explain exactly what is going on here as his fastball velo has remained consistent since 2021 at 95.4 miles per hour (MPH). However, the pitch has gone from monstrous plus-value in 2021 (for the White Sox) and 2022 to terrible last season and barely above average this go around. His slider has also gone south. On the encouraging side, Rodon did look great in his last start, yielding one run, two hits and two walks vs 10 strikeouts in seven innings against the Rays.
Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has had a breakout season overall in 2024, his first getting a full-time run as a starting pitcher. Houck has a 2.71 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but his 22.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.1 percent SwStr% do not scream "ace". He has thrived by avoiding free passes with just a 5.7 percent walk rate, keeping the ball on the ground with a 4.2 percent ground ball rate and in the yard with a 5.7 percent barrel rate. He already has thrown a career-high 123 innings. There are signs the workload has started wearing Houck down, though. In his last four starts, Houck has a 5.49 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with 11 walks against 13 strikeouts in 19.2 innings.
Boston fields their usual potent lineup, led off by All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran amid a breakout season of his own with a .353 wOBA, 13 homers and 22 steals. Tyler O'Neill has stayed (mostly) healthy and has 22 homers and a .389 wOBA while Rafael Devers has maintained his metronome-like excellence at the plate.
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Yankees ML -108 @ Red Sox (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yes, the Yankees have looked utterly terrible in their 1 ½ month slump (enjoyably terrible from my perspective). And yes, they have just two good hitters. But it is important to note they are two really good hitters. You still have to get Soto out for the luxury of pitching around Judge. The offense remains potent despite the obvious top-heavy flaw. As a whole, the Yankees have a 124 wRC+ against righties this season and have gone 50-30 outright versus righty starters with +8.8% ROI as per VSiN.com. Further, this might be a rare opportunity to catch the Yankees as underdogs – they have gone 11-2 with a sparkling +79.5 percent ROI in that spot. Finally, they play well on the road – 34-22, +9.9% ROI.
Always tough to know what you get with Rodon, but lefties turn the Red Sox lineup around a bit. They have gone just 14-18, -18% ROI versus left-handed starters with a league average 102 wRC+. Boston also has not done particularly well at Fenway this season – 25-26, -11.4% ROI line.
