This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's Saturday main slate features eight games that all start within a five minute window between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. That gives us 16 pitchers to sort through, and we seem forced to pay heavily on the bump, as five arms are priced in five-figures with five more in the $9,000 range. That represents 62.5 percent of our options, and there are only three pitching options available under an 8k price. No game comes with a double-digit run expectancy, which seems to match with this pitching heavy slate. But only two games (Pirates-Braves and Nationals-Rays) have slate-low 7.5 run totals.
We'll need to track rain in Atlanta, and it's looking like a blustery day as well. Wind will be blowing out in Boston and swirling with big gusts in Philadelphia and New York, while pitching could be aided in Kansas City with inward winds.
Pitching
Max Fried, ATL vs. PIT ($10,000): There are likely sexier picks priced above Fried, but the Atlanta starter offers a nice mix of stability and upside, and seems priced fairly Saturday. He's allowed more than two runs just once in his last six starts, four of which were of the quality variety. It's given us a 31 fantasy-point floor and 64 point fantasy ceiling. Pair that with the matchup against the Pirates, who have a below-average 95 wRC+ while striking out at a targetable 25.8 percent rate off lefties, and it's easy to see Fried matching or besting his adversary, Paul Skenes, at a slightly cheaper price. The Pirates lineup is hitting .221 with a .532 OPS and 28.4 percent K rate off Fried.
Jake Irvin, WSH at TB ($8,900): Irvin could get lost amongst the bigger names Saturday, which could create a nice GPP opportunity as a lower rostered option. He's been terrific almost all season, bringing a 3.13 ERA and 3.57 xFIP into this matchup with the Rays, who sport a .298 wOBA, 97 wRC+ and 23.6 percent K rate off righties. Irvin isn't a high strikeout guy at 7.9 per nine, but he's gone five innings in all but one start this season and has six quality starts in his last seven outings, with a 35 fantasy-point floor and 52 fantasy-point ceiling. Both of those outcomes work just fine at this price.
Aaron Civale, TB vs. WSH ($7,600): With minimal pay-down options available, it makes sense to consider both sides of this game and it's low expected run total. In bad news, Civale has alternated decent and poor starts across his last five outings, three times allowing one run and twice surrendering four, and if that trend holds, he's due a blow up here. But he's seemingly been more unlucky than bad, as his 5.20 ERA comes with a 3.92 xFIP. Strikeouts have been steady at 9.1 per nine but could play down here against a Nats' lineup that whiffs just 20.6 percent of the time. So we're banking on limited damage, which seems reasonable with Washington bringing a .137 ISO, .301 wOBA and 94 wRC+ off righties into Saturday.
Top Targets
Ketel Marte ($3,600) was popular last night in a matchup against a lefty and didn't disappoint with 15.2 fantasy points, and he gets another lefty Saturday. He carries a .449 wOBA, 195 wRC+ and .375 ISO off southpaws to date. A mini stack with Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000) works fine, as he boasts a .411 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .222 ISO against lefties.
I'll refrain from what's become a column regular of stacking Red Sox bats off righties, as Padres' starter Michael King is surrendering just a .316 wOBA to opposite-handed bats. But it's hard to discount the duo of Rafael Devers ($3,900) and Jarren Duran ($4,000). Duran's slumping slightly but sports a .380 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and .242 ISO off right-handers. The form could make him a tad contrarian to Devers, who appears to be in another terrific spot. He's homered in three of his last four, and carries a .424 wOBA, 172 wRC+ and .335 ISO off righties into the day.
Bargain Bats
Philadelphia is heavily favored Saturday against Miami but also heavily injured, which creates new found opportunities in what should be a soft matchup against Roddery Munoz, who's allowed 20 runs and 27 hits across his last 24.2 innings. It's a clear an obvious stacking opportunity, but consider Bryson Stott ($3,000), who hit leadoff Friday, and/or Brandon Marsh ($2,800), who was slotted into the cleanup spot last evening as solid one-offs.
The Mets are an interesting lineup to consider across the board Saturday, as no bat is priced above Francisco Lindor ($3,400) and as many as five of their starters boast a wOBA of .392 or greater off lefties. J.D. Martinez ($3,000), Jose Iglesias ($2,300), Mark Vientos ($3,100) and whichever catcher between Francisco Alvarez ($2,900) and Luis Torrens ($2,700) can be considered to round out your lineups. Even Brandon Nimmo ($3,200) merits a look thanks to form, and Astros' starter Framber Valdez' struggles against lefties, who have a .395 wOBA off him.
Jackson Chourio ($2,800) may be figuring things out. He has eight hits and two homers during his current five-game hitting streak.
Stack to Consider
Astros vs. Tylor Megill (Mets): Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Jose Altuve ($3,800), Yainer Diaz ($2,900)
Stacking Saturday against these pitchers is not for the faint of heart, and I believe we've identified some cheaper options to consider above. I wouldn't hate targeting Braves against Skenes as a different option simply because we know their production has to come from the top four or five in their lineup. But the Astros seem to present similarly as a top-heavy lineup that should be a safer bet. Megill isn't highly targetable, as his rising 4.81 ERA comes with a 2.97 FIP, he isn't allowing any homers and he strikes out 11.5 per nine. But he's allowed 15 runs and 22 hits in his last four outings, spanning 17.2 innings. This trio had eight hits Friday night and doesn't need a long ball to feed off each other. We'll need confirmation Diaz is in the lineup after catching last night, but he balances this financially and is riding an eight-game hitting streak. Alvarez has hit in six of eight, including two long balls, and Altuve has four-straight multi-hit games. It's a seemingly safe stack versus huge upside, but that's good enough on this challenging Saturday for offenses.
