This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Saturday's main event at FanDuel is a larger than usual 10-game evening affair, getting started at 7:05 p.m. EDT. We don't have a listed starter for Texas, and at least Philadelphia appears to be going with an opener, shortening the pitching pool. Further, three additional arms are priced in the 6k tier, bringing into question their longevity and appeal. Only six of the listed 19 "starters" are pay up options, as we're seeing teams turn to more inexperienced options to limit other teammate's workloads.
Despite this, we have no double-digit run totals. Mets-Angels is the high point at 9.5 runs, with two additional games coming in with 9.0 totals. Rangers-Red Sox and Twins-White Sox are our low points at 7.5 runs. Weather does not appear to be a factor Saturday evening. It looks dry as of the morning, and only minimal winds blowing out in Oakland could play a minute factor.
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN at CWS ($10,000): When looking at the top tier, I strive to find some touch of value within and not target the top of the top. Saturday, however, the three $10,000-plus arms have far softer matchups and they are the pickings. Ober offers a touch of value as the cheapest of that trio, and we think the matchup is something to target every day at this point, with the White Sox having lost a pathetic 18 games straight. Surely, that ends at some point, right? Ober has faced this team twice and carries a surprisingly bad 5.25 ERA, allowing 10 hits and seven runs in 12.0 innings. That doesn't match the .226 BA and .604 OPS that the remaining White Sox have posted off him. He's in a great groove, with seven straight quality starts and a fantasy floor of 31 points in that span.
Martin Perez, SD vs. COL ($7,400): Matchup play over talent. Colorado comes with a low 3.0 run expectancy and have been brutal against left-handed pitching all year, bringing a massive 27.2 percent strikeout rate along with a 79 wRC+ into Saturday. There's concern in familiarity here, as the Rockies are hitting .369 (24-for-65) off Perez historically, so we're going to have to fade that to feel confident and back their season-long struggles. Perez has two quality starts in his last four, and allowed 11 runs and 16 hits across 8.1 innings in the other two outings. He's got a high ceiling for this price, and a very low floor.
Grant Holmes, ATL vs. MIA ($6,800): Not a spot where we want to chase Holmes' last outing, as thanks to the strikeouts, it's surely his ceiling and won't be replicated. But do we need that at this price? Ten to 12 less fantasy points still provides a fair return on value. The Braves are massive (-245) favorites, so if Holmes can work five innings and qualify for that, we just need him to limit damage. With Miami's 3.0 run expectancy and 86 wRC+ against righties, that's a fair assumption. Miami's strikeout rate is rising, too, up to 23.3 percent off righties.
Top Targets
Rafael Devers ($3,900) was in this spot Friday for me, and he went 2-for-4 with a homer, double and two runs scored, so why not go back to him? He's dialed in right now, going 19-for-36 with a 1.575 OPS over his last nine games and seemingly should be more expensive as a result, yet he isn't.
Writing this column on consecutive days can sometimes be a challenge, as the matchups can largely be the same, and we can cut and paste a plethora of content. I tried to stack Padres last night and wasn't successful. But they get to face Tanner Gordon Saturday, who has allowed 15 runs and 25 hits across 15.1 innings. He's allowing a massive .598 wOBA to righties. Manny Machado ($3,300) isn't priced up, but he's got 10 hits, four homers, six RBI and six runs scored in his last five games.
Bargain Bats
Atlanta has the highest team run expectancy at 6.4, so you obviously want shares. At least from a lack of price increase, no one is paying attention to Orlando Arcia ($2,600). He's riding a career-high 13-game hitting streak, has homered in four of his last six and has been elevated to the fifth spot in this lineup. For the price, there's no risk to his hot bat. If you want an additional secondary piece, I'd expect Travis d'Arnaud ($2,900) to start Saturday. He's hit in eight straight and nine of 10.
I'd anticipate high Oriole usage on this slate, but stacking simply based on Cleveland's starter, who likely won't work deep, wouldn't be my preference. Adley Rutschman ($3,200) isn't priced too high to target and has a .418 wOBA and 176 wRC+ off lefties. Assuming they're in the lineup, the continued youth movement in Baltimore with Jackson Holliday ($2,500) and Coby Mayo ($2,300) are appealing. Holliday has three hits, three runs and five RBI in his second go around.
The Mets have a 5.4 run expectancy but very minimal targetable splits off righties. If Jose Iglesias ($2,500) draws the start, he's got eligibility at three spots and leads the team with a .360 wOBA and 138 wRC+, and can help round out lineups.
Stack to Consider
Guardians vs. Zach Eflin (Orioles): Josh Naylor ($3,500), Steven Kwan ($3,200), Lane Thomas ($3,200)
Eflin has allowed a modest nine runs in his last 16.2 innings, so this may not be a true smash/blowup spot. But the thought is Baltimore is going to score off Joey Cantillo and Cleveland's bullpen, and the Guardians will need competitive at-bats to match. Eflin's 5.32 road ERA doesn't hurt this thought either. This trio gives us three to surround Jose Ramirez and whatever production he provides at a fair discount. Naylor is locked in, going 8-for-15 since a three-game absence. Kwan hasn't been able to keep up his torrid start, but still has seven hits in his last seven. Thomas has seven hits in his last six, five going for extra bases.
