This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
After a light Thursday evening, we've got a massive 13-game main slate to break down for Friday. Cardinals-Red Sox and Phillies-Rockies give us two games with a total north of 10 runs, with just one additional game sitting at 9.5, so there appear to be some clear games that will be favorites. Weather looks pretty safe, with Chicago being the only real potential spot for a delay. All teams have listed starters, 10 of which are left-handed, so there shouldn't be any surprises, and ample opportunities to find plus matchups.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. KC ($10,000): This looks like a great spot to deploy Burnes in a positive matchup at a bit of a discount, as he's just the fifth-highest priced arm Friday. He's allowed two runs or less in five straight, creating nice stability, especially when paired with Kansas City's weak .293 wOBA, 82 wRC+ and .149 ISO against righties. Burnes' strikeouts are at an all-time low, just 7.3 per nine, but that could play up against a Royals team that strikes out 24.2 percent of the time. He's returned 4x or better just twice all year, but should limit damage, compile some Ks and be in a spot to earn a win thanks to ample run support against Josh Taylor, the slate's cheapest arm.
Drew Smyly, CHC at MIN ($9,800): This price point seems ridiculously high, so that could create some very low usage in GPPs, even moreso when you see Martin Perez for $600 cheaper facing lowly Oakland. But the A's are surprisingly competent against lefties, and Minnesota hasn't been; bringing a .283 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and massive 28.4 percent strikeout rate into Friday. Smyly has returned 4x this price only once all year, and only three times has he provided at least a 3.3x return, so we need the matchup to play up in order for this to hit. But it surely allows differentiation in the event it pops.
Tylor Megill, NYM at WAS ($7,800): This is another spot where the matchup is better than the name facing it. Megill's 4.30 ERA comes with an elevated 5.40 FIP and just a 6.9 K/9 rate. He's also walking 4.6 per nine, which has limited his ability to work deep into games, resulting in just one quality start. Washington counters with just a .289 wOBA, 78 wRC+ and .096 ISO. That suggests Megill can limit damage for as long as he lasts, giving him a chance to flirt with 30 FDP while freeing up your budget for bats.
Top Targets
No Atlanta hitter has more than seven ABs against Blue Jays' starter Chris Bassitt, but the lineup overall is 19-for-52 (.365) with a .979 OPS. Any of their top four works, with Ronald Acuna ($4,600) offering the best floor/ceiling combo, while Matt Olson ($4,300) and/or Sean Murphy ($4,400) more boom or bust. Austin Riley ($2,900) is cheap, and has been squaring more balls up lately, potentially putting him in a nice bargain spot.
St. Louis' Adam Wainwright allowed four runs and eight hits in his first five innings and shouldn't be feared. Building around a surging Jarren Duran ($3,900) and his .448 wOBA, 186 wRC+ and .262 ISO makes sense. There aren't immediate LvR splits to load up on, but Boston does have a plethora of lefties atop their order that could make for a nice contrarian stack with Alex Verdugo ($3,500), Masataka Yoshida ($3,800) and/or Rafael Devers ($3,900).
Bargain Bats
Josh Jung ($3,500) is scuffling a tad, which has pushed his price to a more reasonable number. He's still mashing lefties to the tune of a .487 wOBA, 219 wRC+ and .441 ISO, and the A's seem willing to let Ken Waldichuk eat innings despite allowing runs, as he's worked five or more frames in all but one start, which gives Jung at least two cracks to impact the game with those splits.
Pirates' starter Johan Oviedo presents more unlucky than bad, as his 5.59 ERA comes with a 3.80 FIP, and he doesn't have targetable splits either, allowing a .355 wOBA to lefties and .314 to righties. Perhaps that merits consideration to using him, and while I still think the Orioles will get to him Friday, it's enough to move away from stacking this favorably-priced lineup. Austin Hays ($2,900) has a team-best .399 wOBA and 158 wRC+ off righties, and works as a one-off.
Blake Snell has been solid against this Dodgers lineup overall, with the team going 39-for-168 (.232) with a .743 OPS and 55 Ks lifetime. He also is coming off of consecutive quality starts, so perhaps he too merits consideration in his own right. But he's also facing the Dodgers for the second straight time, so I'd expect some offensive adjustments. Miguel Vargas ($2,800) looks to be warming with homers in consecutive games, while Chris Taylor is 6-for-24 (.250), but has homered three times off Snell in his career.
Finally, White Sox starter Michael Kopech has a 5.97 ERA and 7.53 FIP, but is being hit harder by same-handed bats, allowing a .435 wOBA and 1.027 OPS. That creates some interesting options within the Astros struggling lineup, with Alex Bregman ($2,800), Jeremy Pena ($3,000) or Jose Abreu ($2,400) in his return to Chicago appearing to be in good position to pop.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Austin Gomber: Nick Castellanos ($3,900), Trea Turner ($3,300), J.T. Realmuto ($3,300)
You don't need me to sell you on what will be heavy usage for the Phillies' lineup. They play in Coors Field against a lefty who has a 10.66 ERA at home (6.30 FIP). He's allowing a .483 wOBA and 1.146 OPS to righties, which allows us to target the top of this order confidently. Omitting Bryce Harper could help us be a tad different too, while also grabbing all the bats around him. Castellanos is the only option here with positive splits to date on lefties, boasting a .423 wOBA and 166 wRC+ off of them, and he's surging. Realmuto and Turner are priced too far down to ignore here. Turner is quietly riding a nine-game hitting streak, just hasn't fully exploded during it, while Realmuto has hit safely in 11 of his past 12 games.
Cardinals vs. James Paxton: Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900), Lars Nootbaar ($3,300), Nolan Arenado ($2,800)
This looks like another pretty obvious spot to attack, but perhaps the Cardinals season-long struggles keep usage in check. Paxton is appearing for the first time since early 2021, and didn't inspire confidence at Triple-A, posting a 6.23 ERA and 1.60 WHIP across 21.2 innings. Goldschmidt gives us an anchor and has a .412 wOBA and 164 wRC+. Nootbaar betters that, sitting at .435/179, though he could hit further down the lineup in an LvL matchup despite the plus splits. Arenado remains in a bit of a funk, but has hit safely in five of his last seven and figures to be in spots to produce runs Friday, and the price point doesn't require much for him to provide a fair return on investment.
