This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-2, -0.35 RWBucks
Season: 36-51, -19.46 RWBucks
On a day when I wrote about sequencing, we sure got an object lesson in its importance.
One under bet: 12-for-26 with runners in scoring position.
Three over bets: 12-for-60 with runners in scoring position.
The latter included a 1-for-21 in San Diego that kept the day in the red.
There is just nothing you can do about this. You can project any number of things that can happen in a baseball game, but you can't project the order in which they will happen. In college basketball, the comparable factor is three-point shooting, which is broadly a team skill but with wide game-to-game variance around a mean. (I have a talent for walking into 22% three-point shooting, and the fun days are when that's the high number.) In football, it's turnovers, not just the quantity but in their place on the field, whether they are positive or negative for points, or for the team you bet.
The trick is being able to go back to the well, to trust your number and your analysis even when you're getting knocked around. I'm struggling with that a bit. I've been a fan of Spencer Turnbull for a while, have him on a Scoresheet team, just missed getting him as a free agent in Mixed LABR. He and the Tigers were a small underdog last night, and I looked at giving it out, but didn't because I couldn't hang a number or two on the pick. It was a "trust me on this one" call, one based on my analysis of the pitcher. At 34-49, you tend to keep those in your pocket in a way that you might not at 49-34. Turnbull's no-hitter was certainly not something I would have predicted, even against the Mariners, but a good start and a Tigers win were both more likely than the odds indicated.
I'm going to work more of these into the column. These picks are kind of the whole point of the exercise, demonstrating that a smart baseball guy can win at this without a model or an algorithm, just based on baseball knowledge. I can't try to make that case, and then run away from picks that are grounded in that idea.
7 p.m. Orioles (John Means) -114 over Rays (Ryan Yarbrough)
The Rays exploded for two three-run homers in the second inning yesterday, which made me laugh because I often DM with Rotowire contributor and Rays fan Jason Collette over the team's problems turning run expectancy into runs. Tonight they face John Means, who backed up his no-hitter with six shutout innings against the Mets, and who now gets a team whose .287 wOBA against lefties is fourth-worst in baseball. (Note: this pick holds even if the Rays use an opener for Yarbrough.) 1 RWBuck.
7:40 p.m. Nationals (Max Scherzer)/Cubs (Jake Arrieta) under 9 (-112)
Both the Nationals and the under were in play here. This number being 9 instead of 8.5 swayed me, although it might move down by gametime. Scherzer is having a renaissance at 36, with a 68/8 K/BB. As I mentioned yesterday, both these bullpens have improved a lot in-season (third and 14th in MLB in FIP this month), and in fact, they nearly kept yesterday's game under 8.5 with some strong late work. 1 RWBuck.
8 p.m. Brewers (Corbin Burnes)/Royals (Brad Keller) under 7.5 (-113)
These teams can't hit, as was on display in last night's 2-0 Royals win. Corbin Burnes comes into this game with a 58/1 K/BB, which I am mostly telling you for the cheap thrill of writing it out. As has been mentioned in this space, I like Brad Keller more than I should, and think he'll keep a weak Brewers lineup in check in a 4-1 type of game. 1 RWBuck.
