This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 3-1, +1.68 RWBucks
Overall: 134-104-1 (56.3 percent), +12.43 RWBucks
White Sox at Indians, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Lucas Giolito vs. Triston McKenzie
I was looking at a number of ways to play the under and ended up landing on the total game under 8.5. I like both starting pitchers and the Indians have struck out 30 percent of the time the last 14 days. But Giolito has been inconsistent his last seven starts, so with both bullpens in the top 5 for FIP in the last 14 days, I am confident this game will go under 8.5 runs. Both teams average around 4.0 runs per game in the last 14 days and we get two very good pitchers in this matchup.
BET: Under 8.5 runs (-115 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
Marlins at Rays, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Baz was very impressive in his debut start against the Blue Jays, going five innings, striking out five and allowing two earned runs. The Marlins hit .224 and struck out 26.3 percent the last 14 days. The Rays have cut down their strikeouts the last 14 days to just 21.4 percent while walking 9.8 percent. They have outscored the Marlins 15-3 in the first two games of this series and have outscored opponents 4.8-3.0 the last 10 games. In 80 homes games this season the Rays have outscored opponents 4.9-3.2, making them a solid run line play.
BET: Rays -1.5 runs (-128 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
Mariners at Angels, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Marco Gonzales vs. Shohei Ohtani
Gonzales is 8-0 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 79.1 since July. He does have a 4.25 ERA since Aug. 23 so we need to understand where he is as a pitcher today. Ohtani has pitched well since July 6 with the exception of one awful start at Houston. He has a 2.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 63 strikeouts and nine walks over 63.1 innings. Both bullpens rank around 20th in FIP the last 14 days, so I feel more comfortable taking the Mariners (7-2 last 9) for the game as they can get to the Angels pen. The Mariners still have something to play for as they are alive for the wild card.
BET: Mariners (+130 DraftKings) for 1 RWBuck
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Humberto Mejia vs. Julio Urias
Since June 26, Urias is 9-0 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. The Diamondbacks are 6-20 in the last month, hitting .219 and being outscored 5.8-4.0 runs per game. The Dodgers are on an 11-3 run, hitting .263 and scoring 8.6 runs per game while allowing 3.5 runs.
BET: Dodgers -2.5 runs (-115 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
