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MLB Best Bets Today: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox are taking on the Baltimore Orioles today in the second game of this crucial four-game series. The Orioles won the first game 5-1 and the Red Sox followed that up with a 12-10 win in the second game of this series. That moved the Red Sox to a 2-6 record against the Orioles this season. The Red Sox are now 11-15 since the All-Star break, which is pretty incredible considering how bad their bullpen has been. They are just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card race after yesterday's win and are now 64-57 on the season. They have won just four of their last 10 games and are weirdly much better on the road (35-25). They are a brutal 25-37 against teams with winning records, though. The Baltimore Orioles have had quite the season. They got off to an unbelievable start and then slowed down a bit. They are currently 72-51 on the season and have won just five of their last 10 games. They are 36-27 at home and an excellent 34-24 in games against teams with winning records.
Cade Povich is getting called up to start this game for the Orioles with all the injuries they are dealing with to their starting pitching staff. He hasn't pitched in the Majors since July 29th and has only one quality start this season. He hasn't been getting very deep in games, which is a problem with how bad the Orioles bullpen has been. He can also really struggle with walks with at least three walks in five of his eight starts this season. He has five walks in three of those games, too. He has not faced the Red Sox yet in his career, and he is a lefty. The Red Sox have been hitting lefties better than they have righties lately, ranking second in the league in wOBA against lefties since the All-Star break. Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox. He has struggled all season. However, he has been pitching much better lately. He has five quality starts in his last eight outings and he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last six. However, even when he only allowed one run in his last outing, the game still had plenty of runs after he left. He has faced the Orioles twice this season, allowing four earned runs across 10.1 innings of work. The Orioles have also been hitting righties pretty well lately, ranking fifth in the league in wOBA against righties since the All-Star break.
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As mentioned, this play has a lot to do with the bullpens on both sides. The Orioles bullpen is ranked 25th in the league with a 5.14 ERA since the All-Star break. They only have a couple of relievers they can rely on in Seranthony Dominguez and Yennier Cano. The Red Sox bullpen is ranked dead last since the All-Star break with a 7.11 ERA. The only team even remotely close to them is the White Sox, and they have won just three games since the All-Star break. The Red Sox got Chris Martin back from the injured list (IL) recently, and he has been a big help for that bullpen. However, the only reliever they can rely on right now is Kenley Jansen. So the two closers on either side are all we can rely on, and they likely won't both pitch in the same game. If one team goes up, we will see the back-end of the bullpen deployed by one of these managers. I think that would push the scoring up. The Red Sox bullpen is also pretty tired since they've had to use so many arms to get wins. We could see a low-scoring start, but I think if we can get the bullpens in by the sixth inning, we will see the scoring explode late in the game.
BEST BET
Over 9.5 Runs (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
